UO's 3-year growth spurt sputters.

Byline: Greg Bolt The Register-Guard

Enrollment at the University of Oregon fell below projections this year as the effects of higher tuition and reduced state support began to take a toll on student numbers.

The UO expects to have 20,033 students when final fourth-week enrollment figures are reported next week. That's a few less than the 20,044 who enrolled last year and marks the first time in three years that the university has drawn fewer students than the previous year.

"We know that financial support for higher education in Oregon is decreasing, and I think that's having an effect on whether students go to college and where they go to college," said Martha Pitts, the UO's director of admissions. "I can't help but think the two big factors are the lack of support in Oregon for financial aid and the economy. It's expensive."

It's unclear whether more students are opting for less expensive community colleges. Enrollment numbers for Lane Community College, which also has raised tuition sharply the past two years, won't be available for another month.

The UO was anticipating about 20,400 students this year, which would have made it the highest enrollment ever and the third record-setting year in a row. But the difference is relatively small in a total student population of just more than 20,000 and isn't expected to put much of a dent in the overall university budget.

That's largely because the UO still has many more students than its state appropriation will support. UO Provost John Moseley said that even with almost 400 fewer students than expected, the university is educating at least 1,500 resident undergraduates for whom it gets no state aid.

In fact, Moseley said, enrolling almost as many students as last year despite a 12.6 percent tuition increase and a 13 percent cut in state funding should be regarded as a considerable accomplishment. He pointed out that the projection was made before the university knew the size of the tuition hike and state cut.

"I never believed we would be above last year's enrollment when those numbers became known," Moseley said. "I can't see this as anything other than a great victory given the context we were dealing in. It could have been a lot worse."

Although the U0's numbers are down, the quality of enrolling students remains high. Pitts said this year's freshmen have an average grade-point average of 3.54, up from 3.47 last year and 3.39 four years ago.

"This year's freshman class is the strongest we've ever had," she said.

Also, the university made a small gain in diversity. Students of color will make up 13 percent of the student body this year, up from 12.6 percent last year.

Pitts said the university chose to enroll a smaller freshman class than last year as part of an effort to keep enrollment from growing too much. The UO already is close to having as many students as it can comfortably handle and cannot continue to grow as fast as it has the past three years.

OSU expects enrollment to rise

That's also the case at Oregon State University, where enrollment looks like it will fall close to projections. Early estimates put the total at 18,979, about a 1 percent increase from last year's 18,789.

Bob Bontrager, OSU's assistant provost for enrollment management, cautioned that those numbers still are preliminary but said he doesn't expect any big changes when final figures are submitted next week. OSU's enrollment has grown almost 40 percent since 1996.

"We understood we could not continue to grow at that pace and so this year we only expected a small increase," he said.

Both universities report small decreases in the number of out-of-state students, a disturbing trend that could hurt budgets if it continues. Students from other states and countries not only add breadth and diversity to the campus, they also pay significantly higher tuition that makes an important contribution to the bottom line.

But while nonresident tuition may be reaching the limit of what students will pay, the numbers don't seem to say the same for resident tuition. With enrollment growing slightly at OSU and staying near the record at the UO, Moseley said he doubts tuition is so high that students will stop enrolling. But he worries that lower-income students are increasingly finding a college education out of reach.

"I think resident students are getting a good value," he said. "But we don't want to increase tuition any more than we have to because it's an access question. We're working hard on financial aid strategies to minimize that."

Bontrager noted that while enrollment continues to hold up for now, the continued shift in higher education funding away from the state and onto student-paid tuition is disturbing.

"There are some very serious questions for the longer term about what the increase in the cost of education is going to mean for Oregonians," he said.