UNIVERSAL'S HOT PROSPECTS; COMPANY BOUNCES BACK AT BOX OFFICE AFTER STRING OF FLOPS.

Byline: Dave McNary Daily News Staff Writer

The losing streak at Universal Studios has vanished.

Most of 1998 was horrific for Universal as virtually its entire motion picture schedule tanked, including promising projects like ``Primary Colors,'' ``BASEketball,'' ``Blues Brothers 2000,'' ``Meet Joe Black'' and ``Babe: Pig in the City.'' Half a dozen top executives left, including Universal Pictures Chairman Casey Silver and Universal Studios head Frank Biondi.

But Universal has turned around this spring, and long-term prospects look better than they have in several years. In the short term, it has clearly benefited from a bold marketing decision to take on ``Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace'' far more directly than any other Hollywood studio.

``Universal has really rebounded,'' noted Drew Devlin, an executive with Clark Film Buying in Bozeman, Mont. ``Their upcoming schedule looks pretty strong.''

Universal's outlook seemed dim just a few weeks ago. On May 6, parent Seagram Co. announced the studio had taken a stunning $97 million loss for the quarter ended March 31 and warned it would lose about the same amount during the current quarter due to poor theatrical and ancillary performance by ``Virus,'' ``EDtv,'' ``Meet Joe Black'' and the ``Babe'' sequel.

It opened ``The Mummy'' the next day, just as anticipation over ``Phantom Menace'' crested, and stunned Hollywood by grossing a phenomenal $43.6 million on opening weekend. In retrospect, ``The Mummy'' cleaned up because everyone else had decided to avoid the Force or release niche product in the weeks leading up to the ``Phantom Menace'' release.

After 17 days, ``Mummy'' crossed the $100 million mark and analysts say it could take in another $50 million by the end of its domestic run.

Universal's move to bracket ``Phantom Menace'' with a Julia Roberts comedy, ``Notting Hill,'' may pay off even more impressively. The film, which opened Friday in 2,745 theaters with a solid buzz and strong reviews, was originally scheduled for June 18, but the studio decided in late March to move it forward three weeks.

Rather than being crushed by the ``Star Wars'' juggernaut, ``Notting Hill'' looks like it will offer an attractive alternative for moviegoers seeking something without lightsaber duels. ``We think the audience is hungry for an excellent romantic comedy,'' said distribution head Nikki Rocco. ``This is all about counterprogramming.''

``Notting Hill'' should take in a more-than-respectable $22 million during this weekend, according to Robert Bucksbaum, president of the Reel Source forecasting service. `` `Notting Hill' is easily the best date-crowd entry we've seen all year,'' Bucksbaum said. ``The fact that Julia Roberts is the biggest draw for women is going to give it a boost, particularly in major markets.''

Devlin is even more bullish. He believes ``Notting Hill,'' in which Roberts' character falls in love with a British bookstore owner played by Hugh Grant, will succeed even outside major markets.

``I know Universal's concerned it's too sophisticated for small towns, but I think people underestimate the sophistication of those markets,'' he said. ``It's a very likable film. The fact that it's set in London won't put people off.''

Learning the hard way

Steve Cesinger, an executive with investment bank Greif & Co., said the studio's ability to pinpoint key dates in the schedule this spring is probably related to how much it suffered after its costly ``Babe: Pig in the City'' was buried by ``A Bug's Life'' and ``The Rugrats Movie'' last November.

``The studio clearly paid the price with the `Babe' scheduling fiasco,'' Cesinger said. ``It probably made them a little more careful. Studio executives have big egos; sometimes it takes a lot of cold water to make them reconsider strategy.''

The fallout from the ``Babe'' sequel led to Silver resigning on the Monday after it opened. Two weeks earlier, when ``Meet Joe Black'' opened disastrously, Biondi departed. Silver's post has remained vacant as Universal Studios President Ron Meyer, a former agent, and Seagram chief executive Edgar Bronfman Jr. have asserted more direct control.

Help from `Patch Adams'

A month after the ``Babe'' fiasco, Universal ended a 19-picture drought dating back to 1997's ``The Lost World: Jurassic Park'' by releasing ``Patch Adams,'' which grossed $133 million. It looked like more of the same when ``Virus'' and ``EDtv'' bombed, but then Eddie Murphy's ``Life'' generated respectable business in April before ``The Mummy'' signaled Universal's losing streak was over.

``They've had the right movies at the right time, but I think it's a little too early to draw the conclusion that Meyer and Bronfman have fixed things,'' said movie analyst Arthur Rockwell.

Hope for `American Pie'

Still, Universal's prospects for the rest of the year look decent, particularly with its next entry: a coming-of-age comedy called ``American Pie'' that is due July 9 has been termed a ``Porky's'' for the '90s and this year's ``There's Something About Mary.''

``There is a lot of positive buzz about `American Pie' being the summer's sleeper hit,'' said Linda Bannister of Edward Jones.

The film's producer, Warren Zide, believes the buzz, asserting that ``Pie'' will tap into the massive teen and young adult crowds that throng multiplexes.

``Seven months ago, `American Pie' was going to be another teen movie, but our goal was to make people say they can really relate to it,'' he said. ``So we cast 18-year-olds to be 18. We think kids are smarter than people give them credit; we like to speak up to them rather than down to them.''

``American Pie'' looks so promising, in fact, that the studio decided this week to shift ``Bowfinger,'' an Eddie Murphy-Steve Martin comedy with significant prospects, from July 23 to Aug. 13. ``We had to get out of our own way,'' Rocco explained. ``This way, we can have three weeks at the end of summer to ourselves.''

Early buzz on ``Bowfinger'' has also been positive. ``The trailer is very funny,'' Devlin noted. ``We're hoping its more like `The Nutty Professor' than `Holy Man.' ''

Other entries with break-out potential include:

``Mystery Men,'' a comedy-fantasy due Aug. 6 with half-a-dozen wanna-be superheroes including Ben Stiller, Janeane Garafalo, Greg Kinnear and William H. Macy. `` `Mystery Men' has been my pick as an August sleeper,'' Devlin said.

``Dudley Do Right,'' a family comedy that may come out in late summer with ``Mummy'' star Brendan Fraser and Sarah Jessica Parker.

``For the Love of the pGame,'' due in mid-September with Kevin Costner as a professional baseball pitcher.

``The Bone Collector,'' a Denzel Washington thriller in early October.

``Man on the Moon,'' due in early November with Jim Carrey as Andy Kaufman.

``End of Days,'' a high-priced supernatural thriller due in late November with Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Bucksbaum credits the studio with reacting quickly to changing customer tastes.

``For a long time, Universal was relying on sequels and older formulas,`` he said. ``But they seem to have realized that what's driving the box office now are date-crowd movies and comedies. They turned on a dime and started producing a lot more films that have appealed to moviegoers.''

Bronfman, whose company bought control of Universal in 1995, had been criticized on Wall Street as he sought to transform Seagram's focus from beverages to entertainment. The stock has doubled in value since October, mainly due to the prospects for new distribution strategies now that Seagram has become the world's leading music company with the buyout of PolyGram.

``Most people looking at the company are more focused on music because the markets know that the movie studios can go into a slump,'' Bannister said. ``We have a buy rating on the stock because there's a lot of potential in music and new methods of distribution. So when the film studio does well, it's gravy.''

Turnaround time 

Universal Studios saw its high-profile films perform poorly last year except for ''Patch Adams`` but its outlook has brightened with ''The Mummy`` and this weekends's release of ``Notting Hill.''

1998 FLOPS

''Blues Brothers 2000,`` February 1998, $13.7 million

''Primary Colors,`` March 1998, $38.9 million

''Out of Sight,`` June 1998, $37.5 million

''Meet Joe Black,`` November 1998, $44 million

''Babe: Pig in the City,`` November 1998, $17 million

1999 PROSPECTS

''American Pie,`` July 9, Jason Biggs

''Mystery Men,`` Aug. 6, Ben Stiller

''Bowfinger,`` Aug. 27, Eddie Murphy 

''For Love of the Game,`` Sept. 17, Kevin Costner

CAPTION(S):

2 photos, box

Photo: (1 -- color) ``Notting Hill'' starring Julia Roberts and Hugh Grants, opened Friday.

(2 -- color) ``BASEketball,'' opened July 1998, earned $7 million

Box: Turnaround time (see text)