UNDERDOG FALCONS PRIMED FOR UPSET.

Byline: KEVIN MODESTI

After the NFC and AFC championships, oddsmakers examined the Super Bowl teams through the eyes of the betting public and saw the following: a defending champion, and a historical failure; a team of familiar stars, and a team led by a less-famous running back; a team that dominated its conference-title game, and a team that was the underdog in its conference-title game and won it by a mere field goal.

That describes last year, when the oddsmakers hung up a point spread favoring the Green Bay Packers by nearly two touchdowns, only to see the Denver Broncos and Terrell Davis win the Super Bowl to vindicate those of us who judged them the Packers' equals.

That also describes this year, when the Broncos are 7-1/2-point favorites over the Atlanta Falcons and Jamal Anderson, even though any analysis of who beat whom and by how much suggests today's game can go either way.

The question isn't ``How can the Falcons win the Super Bowl?'' It's ``Why shouldn't they?''

Since Nov. 16, 1997, Atlanta has a 21-3 record in regular-season and playoff games. That's not just better than Denver (23-5), that's best in the NFL.

Atlanta's 11-game winning streak includes five victories over playoff-caliber teams. In the same stretch, Denver is 9-2 and faced just three playoff teams.

In games against the teams' common opponents this season, Atlanta was 4-1 and scored 47 points more than it gave up. Denver was 3-2 and plus-37.

None of which means the point spread is wrong. It's right for the bookmakers, whose aim is to pull in equal wagering on both sides.

That's what point spreads are designed to do - reflect the general public's opinion of a game. They are not an objective appraisal of the difference between the teams. The upshot in the Super Bowl, because it attracts more uneducated money than any other sports event, is that the spread sometimes has little relation to reality.

Last year, a lot of bettors dismissed the Broncos' chances because of the franchise's 0-4 record in Super Bowls, the Packers' 3-0 mark and the AFC's 13-Super Bowl losing streak, factors that had little to do with the strengths of the 1997-98 Broncos and Packers.

``If it was a regular-season game, (even) if it was being played in Green Bay, the spread probably would be lower,'' an oddsmaker for Michael ``Roxy'' Roxborough's Las Vegas Sports Consultants admitted before that Super Bowl.

The line settled at 11-1/2 and underdog Denver won 31-24 in San Diego.

Why can't this year be more of the same, with Atlanta in the role of the winning underdog in Miami?

Because Denver has the league's second-best offense (measured by points scored)? No. The Minnesota Vikings had the league's best offense and the Falcons beat them to get to the Super Bowl. Against the league's top eight scoring teams, the Falcons are 3-2, both losses occurring on the road, one against the New York Jets in a game quarterback Chris Chandler missed with an injury.

Because Denver has the league's eighth-best defense (measured by points given up)? No. The Miami Dolphins had the league's best defense and the Falcons scored 38 points on them in a late-season victory. Against the league's top eight defensive teams, the Falcons are 3-1, and again the loss was in the Jets game that Chandler missed.

Because Denver has a combination of good offense and defense? No. So did Minnesota. Other than the Broncos, Vikings and Jets, the best-balanced team is the Falcons.

Because the Falcons aren't used to playing on grass fields like Pro Player Stadium's? No. It's true they haven't played on grass since they faced the playoff-bound New England Patriots in Foxboro on Nov. 8. But that game produced a 41-10 victory for the Falcons and the most resounding defeat at home for a playoff team since 1994.

Because the upstart Falcons, 3-13 just two seasons ago, might not handle the Super Bowl pressure as well as the more seasoned Broncos? OK, that might be true. On the other hand, ``big game'' pressure didn't kill the Falcons in Minnesota. And who's the pressure really on, considering it's the Broncos who are expected to win?

John Elway and the Broncos will be deserving champions if they win. But the Falcons - who are 15-1 with Chandler in the game this season - are the way to bet.

It looks like a repeat of '98, all right. Just not the kind the Broncos would like.

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PHOTO Running back Jamal Anderson and the Atlanta Falcons relish the thought of winning today and crossing up the oddsmakers again.

Beth A. Keiser/Associated Press