UNDERDOG EAGLES COULD QUIET THE HYPE ...

Byline: KEVIN MODESTI

Of the pregame stats and stories springing from the Super Bowl press room in Jacksonville, nothing has been as impressive as one little line in a USA Today poll published this week.

Asked about their Super Bowl viewing plans, 3.5 percent of respondents said they'll watch it in ``the TV department at a local store.''

Apologies to that 3.5 percent, whose big day out might be spoiled by this, but I'm giving away the surprise ending right here. The Philadelphia Eagles take it in a mild upset. The New England Patriots can't win all the close ones.

The Patriots are the latest franchise to get the virtual-dynasty treatment. It's always something about how the team is ``the closest thing to a dynasty'' that's possible in this era of league-legislated parity. Which is supposed to put this team that squeaked out two Super Bowl wins in the past three seasons in the same class as the '70s Steelers (four Super Bowl wins in six years), '80s 49ers (four in nine years) and '90s Cowboys (three in four years).

Thus the NFL gets to have its Super Bowl party spread and eat it, too. Parity guarantees everybody a shot every few years because it spreads out the talent and breaks up the would-be great teams. Inevitably someone rises to the top and stays there for more than a minute and is enthroned as a dynasty anyway.

The last time a team got the benefit of these systematically-lowered standards was four years ago. The St. Louis Rams were going for their second Super Bowl win in three years and were favored by an outrageous 14 points. I used the ``closest thing to a dynasty'' line myself.

Then I picked the Patriots to beat St. Louis by a field goal, and they did, on Adam Vinatieri's kick.

The Patriots won that Super Bowl by three points. They won last year's over Carolina by three points. They still have a lot to prove to earn the comparisons to the Steelers (who won their Super Bowls by a combined 30 points), 49ers (76 points) and Cowboys (62 points).

Take away the Patriots' ``tuck-rule'' lucky break in the conference-championship game against the Raiders four years ago, and this dynasty never gets off the snowy ground.

Why Donovan McNabb, Terrell Owens and Brian Westbrook should believe they can win today:

--In this four-year stretch the Patriots are supposed to have dominated, their 48-16 regular-season record is exactly the same as the Eagles'.

--Though the Eagles aren't the better team here, they aren't seven points inferior, as the betting line would suggest. The difference is more like three points if you look at who beat whom and by how much this season.

--The Eagles defense has been holding opponents about a touchdown and a half under their scoring averages in the second half of the season and the playoffs. If the Patriots have proven vulnerable to anything it's a strong and pass-harassing defense.

My friend, colleague and Super Bowl forecasting rival Steve Dilbeck likes the Patriots and he's already wondering how it's going to go wrong the way it always seems to for his picks. Steve's luck hasn't been the same since his first big-game pick was ruined by Roy Riegels.

Getting seven points, Philadelphia is the way to bet. Sorry to spoil the suspense for all of those who planned to make an afternoon of it, watching the Super Bowl in the Sears TV showroom while dining on sample mints from the candy department and doing their laundry in the store-display washing machines.

It ends with a field-goal try, only this time it doesn't go the Patriots' way, and the Eagles are the champs.

Philadelphia, 21-20.

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The outcome of Super Bowl XXXIX may help football fans determine if Patriots coach Bill Belichick and owner Bob Kraft have created a dynasty.

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images