UN Move On Iran.

The permanent five UNSC members and Germany on Nov. 2 began a meeting in London to discuss the terms of a new resolution which might trigger fresh sanctions against Iran. At the start of a critical month of diplomacy between Iran and the West, political directors from the group are examining new ways to punish Iran if it fails to comply with international efforts to ensure it does not develop nuclear weapons. The FT on Nov. 1 quoted "a diplomat involved in talks with Iran" as saying: The Nov. 2 meeting "will not take decisions but it will put the Security Council in a situation where it can act quickly if Iran fails to respond adequately to the [IAEA head Muhammad] ElBarade'i and [EU foreign policy chief Javier] Solana initiatives".

The US on Oct. 25 took a range of unilateral financial and diplomatic steps against the Quds force of Iran's elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as well as other named figures and organisations in Tehran. US officials said they were not looking for the UN to endorse identical measures. The FT quoted a US official as saying: "I don't think anyone sees it as a template for what is happening in the UN process". But the US hopes Russia and China will approve a UN resolution which would have the symbolic effect of further isolating Iran and incrementally increasing the pressure on Tehran through practical new steps.

The FT said: "senior EU diplomats believe Russia is privately far more understanding of western concerns over Iran's nuclear ambitions than is often suggested". It quoted one EU diplomat as saying: "I see Russia exerting pressure on Iran to an unexpected degree". By contrast, China is thought to have more substantive objections to a new resolution. The FT quoted "a senior EU diplomat" as saying: "China has significant economic interests in Iran and this will create a real problem in getting a UN agreement. It is unlikely that China has yet had any chance to revisit its position so soon after the recent Communist party congress".

Some Western diplomats believe Iran might respond positively to the ElBarade'i and Solana initiatives. The FT quoted an EU diplomat as saying: "We are not excluding the possibility that something positive may come out of these talks. The risk is that the Iranians think they are doing enough and they miscalculate". In the US and UK, there are fears the UNSC will be divided after ElBarade'i reports. The FT quoted a Western diplomat as saying: "ElBarade'i is undoubtedly concerned about some kind of war but his strategy might make a conflict more likely. The US wants a credible international policy. If ElBarade'i protects Iran, that policy will have less credibility".

US Under-Secretary of State for Political Affairs R. Nicholas Burns on Nov. 1 challenged Iranian President Ahmadi-Nejad's claim that Iran was immune to further UNSC sanctions, saying precisely such action was in the works unless Tehran ended its nuclear defiance. Burns spoke after a meeting with ElBarade'i meant to demonstrate unity after recent strains between Washington and the IAEA head on how best to deal with the crisis. Burns called on ElBarade'i at his downtown Vienna home en route to London, where he was to co-ordinate Iran strategy with his counterparts from Russia, China, Britain, France and Germany.

Burn told reporters: Ahmadi-Nejad "said in September the Security Council case is closed. I am sorry to tell him it's not closed".

IRGC commander Gen. Ali Ja'fari on Oct. 31 warned the US it would find itself in a quagmire "deeper than Iraq" if it attacked Iran. Taking the haughty tone of the theocracy's supremacists like Ahmadi-Nejad, who belittle the power of the US, he told a parade in north-central Iran: "If the enemies show inexperience and want to invade Islamic Iran, they will receive a strong slap from Iran. The enemy knows that if it attacks Iran it will be trapped in a quagmire deeper than Iraq and Afghanistan, and they will have to withdraw with defeat".

On a visit to Tehran, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on Oct. 31 met with Ahmadi-Nejad. It was later said Lavrov was pursuing President Putin's proposal to have Iranian uranium enrichment made on Russian soil. Putin, on a visit to Tehran, on Oct. 17 met with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and reportedly warned him that the stand-off was too dangerous for Iran as the theocracy risked being attacked by the US and asked him to accept his proposals. Khamenei reportedly promised Putin he will consider it.

Hours before he met Lavrov, Ahmadi-Nejad dismissed US offers of broader negotiations between the two foes if Tehran first halted atomic work. He said: "This nation will not negotiate with anyone over its obvious and legal rights". Speaking to student members of the Basij militia, he said: "We are not even interested in negotiating with you (the US) and the Iranian nation does not need America. The recent US decision [against Iran] has made it clear that the Americans are not even able to harm us unilaterally".