UCLA CONFERENCE TO EXPLORE 'REAL ESTATE BUBBLES 101'.

Byline: GREGORY J. WILCOX

Speculation is increasing that the hot residential real estate market is approaching the bubble phase.

The issue will get the full attention of the quarterly UCLA Anderson Forecast Conference on Tuesday at the university's Westwood campus.

The program, ``Real Estate Bubbles 101,'' will explore the question of when and how real estate bubbles burst and offer insight into what today's buyers and sellers need to know.

On Friday, the forecast Web site offered a sneak peek at the issue from forecast director Edward Leamer, who is also a professor of management, economics and statistics.

Leamer notes there are many analysts who point to trends in population and job growth and anti-growth barriers to the construction of new homes as reasons for the hot real estate market. But he says these factors were firmly in place four years ago, before prices doubled.

``If anything, forecasts for economic growth for the U.S. and for California in the decade ahead are less optimistic now than they were at the height of the Internet rush a few years ago. That slower growth will put less pressure on residential land and is a reason for lower land values, not higher values,'' he writes.

Furthermore, job growth in the United States in general and in California in the past couple of years has been virtually nonexistent, which is another important reason for weakness in real estate.

While many of the fundamental arrows are pointing down, not up, it isn't a mystery what is driving the market. It's highly attractive interest rates plus momentum investing, he explains.

``Today's buyers who think they will be selling at a profit in the next several years need to understand that they are placing a bet that these low mortgage rates will be with us until they want to sell. Today's buyers with a longer perspective need to do an entirely different calculation to decide if properties today are overpriced,'' he concluded.

Others weighing in on the issue include senior forecast economist Michael Bazdarich and Amy Crews Cutts, deputy chief economist at Freddie Mac.

May's housing numbers for the San Fernando and Santa Clarita valleys will come out tomorrow, so brace for continued sticker shock.

The signs point to the median price hitting a record. Again.

Last week, industry tracker DataQuick Information Systems reported that the median price for all housing stock hit record levels across Southern California, including $448,000 in the San Fernando Valley.

That bested previous highs in the six-county region, reached just one month before.

In April, the Valley's single-family-home median was a record $477,500.

One thing is certain, though.

The sales and price numbers compiled by the Van Nuys-based Southland Regional Association of Realtors will differ from DataQuick's.

For example, in April the median price of both single-family homes and condominiums in the Realtors' survey was $432,000. DataQuick came in at $430,000.

``The main difference is we're a public-record database. For better or for worse, we have every grain of sand in there,'' said DataQuick analyst John Karevoll.

DataQuick's numbers also include new homes and those sold by owners, sales probably not captured in the Realtors report.

The 30-year fixed rate drifted up four basis points to average 6.46 percent, mortgage tracker HSH Associates reported late Friday.

Gregory J. Wilcox, [phone]

greg.wilcox(at)dailynews.com