U.S. programming trends and ties.

he development of original programming is all the rage in cable television. Even MTV is now in the game: the music video network has greenlighted more than 20 pilots for the 1998 development season. HBO, USA, TNT and Showtime are all in the original mini-series business, while Lifetime will concentrate on 14 original movies.

Cable sales and foreign sales are also on the minds of the Screen Actors Guild and the American Federation of Television and Radio Artists. The two unions are hoping to double the current minimum payments from foreign residuals and to negotiate for an ongoing share of revenue from foreign sales. The unions also want to replace the current revenue-based formula for residuals from TV programs sold to cable with a schedule of fixed residual payments similar to those paid for syndicated reruns.

Also an issue is the distinction between reach delivery and ratings delivery. For example, while ABC concedes that NBC has a strong advantage in ratings delivery, it points out that the Peacock's top shows tend to reach the same viewers again and again. According to ABC, NBC's lack of diversity limits the network's dominance in reach. While behind in ratings, ABC has a schedule that is considered more diverse and reaches different viewers at different times of the week; therefore, ABC has decided to abandon primetime ratings delivery in favor of weekly reach delivery.

As for CBS, the Eye network developed a slate of pilots featuring high profile stars like Ted Danson and Melanie Griffith, in hopes of drawing a younger, maler and more urban audience. The median age of NBC's audience is currently 40, while ABC's median age is 39 and Fox's is 33. CBS attracts older viewers, with a median age of 51.

This year, advertisers will spend an estimated $15 billion on network programming, paying top dollar to reach the 18-to-49-year-old market, and particularly the adults under 35. Last year, advertisers paid Fox a $17.28 CPM (cost per 1,000 adults) for Melrose Place and CBS a $5.10 CPM for Touched by an Angel. NBC got a $11.29 CPM for The Naked Truth but only a $8.91 CPM for its older-skewing drama Law & Order.

Even Disney, ABC's parent company, cut ad spending on its own network by 11 percent in 1997 while, in apparent pursuit of young moviegoing viewers, it increased its spending on Fox by 22 percent (to $51.4 million) and on the WB by 50 percent (to $7.6 million).

Ad buyers for children's programming are seeing more upfront supply than demand, and as a result kids' shows may level off. Currently, however, all of the major children's networks - including the Cartoon Network, Nickelodeon, Fox Kids and the Disney Channel - are expanding their lineups of original programming.

Despite the erosion of the networks' share, network ad costs are rising, because network TV is still the most efficient way to reach mass audiences. In 1996, the cost of a 30-second spot with the average household rating (9.7) was $190,000, making the cost per rating point $19,588. Last year, the cost for the same spot with the average household rating (7.8) was $215,000, or $27,564 per rating point.

Oddly enough, in this universe of shrinking network share, the number of terrestrial TV networks is rising. If the latest challenger, Pax Net, succeeds, the U.S. will have a total of seven major broadcast TV networks.

Cable, on the other hand, has made significant inroads. Even with a highly fragmented share of the audience, the 23 major cable networks increased their gross ad revenues by 19.5 percent, to $4.12 billion, in 1997. Including syndication, the U.S. TV ad marketplace grew almost 8 percent, to $23.52 billion, in 1997.

The amount of network air time is also up in the air. It has been pointed out that Fox, with 15 primetime hours as opposed to the other networks' 22 hours, seems to have created a better model for survival. Fox also has fewer opportunities for what is called "the crater effect," in which weak shows drag down the entire network. Nevertheless, a recent study indicated that the heaviest primetime brands - those that spend 31 percent or more of their daypart mix in primetime - were 67 percent more effective (i.e., generated greater sales impact) than other brands. Thus, in theory, there should be more demand for primetime periods.

Well, black-and-white is back. Although the big three networks still charge "color integration fees" (to insert colorTV commercials), many TV spots are now in living black-and-white. Even the Ted Turner-founded networks have ceased their colorizing activities and now present vintage trims in their original black-and-white. Which brings us to... nostalgia and familiar faces as the trends for the next season.

This season, proven TV actors were much in demand for network pilots. CBS tapped Ted Danson and Ken Olin to play doctors in Becker and L.A. Docs, respectively, and the WB pinned its hopes to Shannen Doherty in the one-hour drama Charmed. However, instead of simply betting on veteran stars, this year one network in particular dusted off old titles in hopes that what worked once would work again. ABC's development slate included Fantasy Island; Love, American Style; and the Mary Tyler Moore Show, with Moore and Valerie Harper reprising their classic roles.

Although television series spun off from movies have fizzled recently, the networks continue to salivate over the prospect of luring movie stars to television, both in front of the camera (Melanie Griffith, Nathan Lane, James Belushi, Rob Lowe, Lou Diamond Phillips) and behind (Eddie Murphy, producer of Fox's The P.J.s; Sydney Pollack, with the CBS legal drama Last Defense; Barry Sonnenfeld, with both Fantasy Island and another ABC pilot; and Martin Scorsese, who recently signed a two-year development deal with ABC).

Franchises and brand names that can be exploited worldwide are getting more play but at the same time have driven TV companies to pay huge sums for talent. High profile "deal-driven deals" are costing up to three times the normal rate - and of course there are no guarantees of success.

Competition in drama is getting fierce, and some of that competition is coming from non-network camps: next season, at least 10 new syndicated one-hour series will join the more than 20 already in place.

Expect TV companies to control sports, and expect sports to dominate TV schedules. In many circles, sports are seen as programming, and they have the added advantage of providing lead-ins and tie-ins. Fox, Disney, Time Warner, Tribune and Cablevision all own sports teams.

Finally, it is important to dispel the notion that movies are out of favor with the networks. Indeed, the webs continue to buy movies, but they are being broadcast during non-network time slots, as if they were syndicated. However, the license fees offered are at network prices, not market by market.