U.S. casting sales to maintain course with 3.7% rise: growth in aluminum and ductile iron is forecast for the next two years, while gray iron and steel casting shipments are expected to decline.
Despite a decrease in light vehicle production in 2006, metal casting Metal casting
A metal-forming process whereby molten metal is poured into a cavity or mold and, when cooled, solidifies and takes on the characteristic shape of the mold. shipments rose more than 1.5% over 2005 to 14,615,000 tons (Transparent Optical Networking Services) A marketing term for providing dark fiber to a customer. The customer is responsible for generating the transmission signal and interpreting it at the other end. See dark fiber. . Peak production of medium to heavy trucks and freight The price or compensation paid for the transportation of goods by a carrier. Freight is also applied to the goods transported by such carriers.
The liability of a carrier for freight damaged, lost, or destroyed during shipment is determined by contract, statute, or cars spurred increases in shipments of ferrous ferrous (fĕr`əs), iron in the +2 valence state.
Containing or having to do with iron. The difference between ferrous and ferric is the number of valence electrons they contain (ferrous contains two and ferric contains three), which castings, but lowering production in these market sectors is forecast to result in declines in gray iron and steel castings Steel casting is a manufacturing process in which molten metal is poured into a mold, allowed to solidify within the mold, and then the mold is broken and the solid piece is taken out. through 2008 of 1.7% and 11.4%.
Ductile iron Ductile iron, also called ductile cast iron or nodular cast iron, is a type of cast iron invented in 1943 by Keith Millis. While most varieties of cast iron are brittle, ductile iron is much more ductile, as the name implies. casting shipments, however, are forecast to continue gaining in the next two years and grow 0.5% in the long term. Aluminum casting shipments are expected to rise 2% in 2007 and grow by 4.5% through 2008.
Imports are forecast to keep domestic casting shipments at a minimum in many market sectors, as they are expected to reach 3.5 million tons in 2007. Due in part to higher oil prices, the market for small passenger cars is expected to increase, as will car imports, which will reduce the market share of domestic light vehicle manufacturers. More iron engine blocks and differential and suspension suspension, in vehicles
suspension, in automobiles, system of springs used to suspend the frame, body, engine, and power train above the wheels. Its principal purpose is to lessen the jarring of the automobile that is caused by irregularities in the roads castings continue to be converted to aluminum in light tracks due to proposed fuel economy standards.
Interviews of casting end users and analyses of econometric e·con·o·met·rics
n. (used with a sing. verb)
Application of mathematical and statistical techniques to economics in the study of problems, the analysis of data, and the development and testing of theories and models. forecasts have supported the optimism Optimism
See also Hope.
personification of cheery contentment. [Fr. Lit.: “Roger Bontemps” in Walsh Modern, 66]
beset by inconceivable misfortunes, hero indifferently shrugs them off. [Fr. for gains in casting demand for the next two years. Sales, which are estimated at $35 billion for 2006, are forecast to increase to $37.75 billion by 2008 and rise to $44 billion in 2016 (Fig. 1). Shipments of metal castings are forecast to decrease 0.3% to 14,572,000 in 2007, but grow by 0.3% to 14,611,000 tons in 2008.
[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]
The higher growth rate for metal casting sales reflects the change of the product mix to higher-priced light metal castings in vehicles.
Following is a look at the forecast of casting demand by the major end-use industries for metal castings.
The total production of light vehicles in the U.S., which includes both passenger cars and light trucks, is expected to increase 3% in 2007, with Passenger car production rising 10%. Currently, passenger car production accounts for 40% of this market sector, but that could rise to 52% by 2016.
Forecast--Shipments of gray iron castings will decline annually to 926,000 tons by 2008 and reduce at an annual long term rate of 1% to reach a low of 806,000 tons in 2012. The average weight of gray iron per light vehicle is forecast to drop to 140 lbs.
Ductile iron shipments are expected to decrease by 0.6% to 951,000 tons in 2007 with a long-term loss Long-term loss
A loss on the sale of a capital asset held less than 12 months that can be used to offset a capital gain. of 1% per year. Steel castings will likely decline to 55,000 tons in 2007 and at a rate of 7% per year in the long term.
Aluminum casting weight a weight that turns a balance when exactly poised.
- B. Trumbull.
See also: Casting per light vehicle has increased to 260 lbs. Casting shipments are forecast to increase 2.3% to 1.4 million tons in 2007 and to 1.6 million tons by 2016.
Internal Combustion Engines Internal combustion engine
A prime mover, the fuel for which is burned within the engine, as contrasted to a steam engine, for example, in which fuel is burned in a separate furnace.
The diesel engine market consumes 90% of the gray and ductile iron castings shipped in this classification. The small gasoline gasoline or petrol, light, volatile mixture of hydrocarbons for use in the internal-combustion engine and as an organic solvent, obtained primarily by fractional distillation and "cracking" of petroleum, but also obtained from natural gas, by segment consumes 90% of the aluminum casting shipments.
Forecast--Shipments of gray iron castings are forecast to drop again from 440,000 to 408,000 tons and continue to slide at an annual rate of 1.6% as imports increase. Ductile iron casting shipments are forecast to decrease from 112,000 tons in 2006 to 104,000 tons in 2007. Still, conversions of gray iron, steel and malleable iron (Metal.) iron sufficiently pure or soft to be capable of extension under the hammer; also, specif., a kind of iron produced by removing a portion of the carbon or other impurities from cast iron, rendering it less brittle, and to some extent malleable. to ductile iron have spurred some growth in the short and long term.
Shipments of steel castings in the turbine turbine, rotary engine that uses a continuous stream of fluid (gas or liquid) to turn a shaft that can drive machinery.
A water, or hydraulic, turbine is used to drive electric generators in hydroelectric power stations. and turbine generator generator, in electricity, machine used to change mechanical energy into electrical energy. It operates on the principle of electromagnetic induction, discovered (1831) by Michael Faraday. industries are forecast to grow at an annual rate of 0.6% to 19,000 tons in 2016, peaking in 2007 and 2008.
Aluminum castings in internal combustion engines are forecast to increase 0.7% annually to 140,000 tons in 2016. Aluminum die castings die casting
Forming metal objects by injecting molten metal under pressure into dies or molds. An early and important use of the technique was in the Linotype machine (1884), but the mass-production automobile assembly line gave die casting its real impetus. are to reach 194,000 tons by 2008.
Agricultural Implement Manufacturing
Following a 4% drop in 2006, farm machinery sales are expected to grow" 2% in 2007 and make long-term gains Long-term gain
A profit on the sale of a capital assets held longer than 12 months, and eligible for long-term capital gains tax treatment. of 1.5% annually.
Forecast--Gray iron casting shipments, exclusive of engine castings, are forecast to decrease from 310,000 tons in 2006 to 250,000 tons in 2016, with a short-term Short-term
Any investments with a maturity of one year or less.
1. Of or relating to a gain or loss on the value of an asset that has been held less than a specified period of time. decline to 293,000 in 2008. Ductile iron castings are expected to continue to replace gray iron, malleable iron and steel, achieving a short-term growth of 7.7% through 2008 and a long-term Long-term
Three or more years. In the context of accounting, more than 1 year.
1. Of or relating to a gain or loss in the value of a security that has been held over a specific length of time. Compare short-term. annual growth of 1.4%.
Construction Machinery & Equipment
Construction machinery equipment shipments are forecast to grow 2.8% per year through 2016, with 2.3% growth through 2008.
Forecast--Gray iron casting shipments likely will reach 262,000 tons in 2007 and grow at a low rate in the long term clue to conversions to ductile iron. Ductile iron shipments are expected to increase 1.8%) in 2007 to 225,000 tons in 2008. Steel casting consumption is forecast to decline annually 0.6% due to replacement with ferritic ductile iron.
Mining Machinery & Equipment
Shipments of mining machinery are expected to increase 3% in 2007 based on increases in mine production and growth in exports of mining machinery.
Forecast--Steel casting shipments rose slightly in 2006; however, shipments will continue to be low in 2007 at 114,000 tons due to imports and loss of applications to other materials and fabrications.
Oil Field Equipment
Continuing high oil prices have kept up demand for oil field equipment. A 3% increase is expected in 2007, with more growth in the following years.
Forecast--Shipments of ductile iron are forecast to increase 3.5% in 2007 and at an average annual rate of 2% in the long term.
Steel casting shipments are expected to see a short-term 2% gain, but decline 2% annually through 2016.
Valves & Fittings fit·ting
Being in keeping with a situation; appropriate.
1. The act of trying on clothes whose fit is being adjusted.
2. A small detachable part for a machine or apparatus.
The value of shipments of industrial valves are estimated to have increased 3.5% in 2005 and decreased 2% in 2006. A 3% growth is forecast in 2007.
Forecast--Gray iron valve castings are forecast to decrease from 282,000 tons in 2006 to 266,000 tons in 2016. A short-term rise of 5.6% by 2008 is expected for ductile iron shipments followed by a long-term annual increase of 0.2%. Malleable iron casting shipments are forecast to decrease from 36,000 tons in 2006 to 25,000 tons in 2016.
Steel castings should see a sharp 18% decline over the next 10 years as imports and conversions to ductile iron increase.
A 1.9% increase for the next two years is predicted for copper-base castings, despite imports of more than 30,000 tons.
Forecast--Ductile iron shipments likely will increase from 2.26 million tons in 2006 to 2.36 million tons in 2016. Substitution Substitution
put her own son in place of Orestes; her son was killed and Orestes was saved. [Gk. Myth.: Zimmerman, 32]
robber freed in Christ’s stead. [N.T.: Matthew 27:15–18; Swed. Lit. of plastic pipe continues to hurt growth in iron shipments. Despite this loss to plastic pipe, all four major U.S. producers are expected to have growth years based on a rise in construction activity.
Metalworking Machinery & Equipment
After five years of steady decline, the metalworking machinery industry slightly rebounded in 2005 with a 5% gain. Another 5% gain is expected in 2007 with a long-term forecast of 2% per year.
Forecast--The consumption of gray, ductile iron and steel casting shipments has dropped and is forecast to continue at low levels.
Power Hand Tools
Forecast--The power tool market continues to be a growth market. Aluminum die castings are predicted to grow 3.2% in 2007, while sand and permanent mold mold, name for certain multicellular organisms of the various classes of the kingdom Fungi, characteristically having bodies composed of a cottony mycelium. The colors of molds are caused by the spores, which are borne on the mycelium. aluminum castings rise to 14,000 tons per year. Magnesium magnesium (măgnē`zēəm, –zhəm), metallic chemical element; symbol Mg; at. no. 12; at. wt. 24.305; m.p. about 648.8°C;; b.p. about 1,090°C;; sp. gr. 1.738 at 20°C;; valence +2. casting usage is forecast to rise to 13,000 tons in 2007.
Special Industry Machinery
The average annual weighted growth of machinery used in the packaging, food products, paper, printing and textiles textiles, all fabrics made by weaving, felting, knitting, braiding, or netting, from the various textile fibers (see fiber). Types of Textiles
industries is forecast to be 2.3% per year through 2016.
Forecast--A short-term growth of 4.5% to 230,000 tons by 2008 is forecast for gray iron casting shipments. Ductile iron casting shipments are expected to grow 4.5% to 117,000 tons from 2006 to 2008.
A short-term growth of 5.6% to 19,000 tons in 2008 is forecast for stainless steel stainless steel: see steel.
Any of a family of alloy steels usually containing 10–30% chromium. The presence of chromium, together with low carbon content, gives remarkable resistance to corrosion and heat. castings. Heat resistant steel castings are expected to grow 12.5% to 9,000 tons by 2008.
Pumps & Compressors
An increase in highway construction, bridge repair and public works public works
Construction projects, such as highways or dams, financed by public funds and constructed by a government for the benefit or use of the general public.
Noun 1. increased demand for pumps and compressors in 2006. Oil field equipment growth has spurred recent casting growth.
Forecast--Gray iron casting shipments are expected to grow 4.2% through 2008 to 255,000 tons. Ductile iron castings are to expand at an average annual rate of 1.5% per year with an 8.2% growth from 2006 to 2008.
Carbon and low alloy steel Low alloy steel is steel alloyed with other elements, usually molybdenum, manganese, chromium, vanadium, silicon, boron or nickel, in amounts of up to 10% by weight to improve the hardenability of thick sections. castings are forecast to increase 5.4% through 2008 while corrosion resistant pumps rise 5.5%.
Gears, Speed Changers
The Changers are a fictional group of anti-hero published by Wildstorm an imprint of DC Comics. & Power Transmission Equipment
Forecast--A 1.7% increase in gray iron shipments is forecast for 2007 with a long-term growth rate of 0.4% per year due to losses to imports and some conversions to plastics and ductile iron. Ductile iron shipments are forecast to rise to 30,000 tons in 2007 and 32,000 tons in the next two years.
Refrigeration refrigeration, process for drawing heat from substances to lower their temperature, often for purposes of preservation. Refrigeration in its modern, portable form also depends on insulating materials that are thin yet effective. , Air Conditioning air conditioning, mechanical process for controlling the humidity, temperature, cleanliness, and circulation of air in buildings and rooms. Indoor air is conditioned and regulated to maintain the temperature-humidity ratio that is most comfortable and healthful. & Heating Equipment
The U.S. is a major exporter of this equipment, and the industry is expected to show a constant-dollar increase of 3% in 2007 based on a resurgence re·sur·gence
1. A continuing after interruption; a renewal.
2. A restoration to use, acceptance, activity, or vigor; a revival. in housing starts.
Forecast--Gray iron shipments are expected to increase 5% in 2007 with a long-term decrease of 0.2% per year. Ductile iron shipments are predicted to increase 8% to 43,000 tons from 2006 to 2008.
Aluminum die castings, which approximate ap·prox·i·mate
To bring together, as cut edges of tissue.
1. Relating to the contact surfaces, either proximal or distal, of two adjacent teeth; proximate.
2. Close together. 80% of total aluminum usage, are forecast to rise to 46,000 tons in 2007.
Electrical Equipment A piece of electrical equipment is a machine, powered by electricity and usually consists of an enclosure, a variety of electrical components and often a power switch. Examples of Electrical Equipment
The constant-dollar value of shipments by the motor and generator industry is expected to expand 2% per year in the long term.
Forecast--The use of gray iron likely will continue to decline, with a forecast drop to 38,000 tons by 2016. Aluminum die castings are forecast to increase to 38,000 tons by 2008, and zinc zinc, metallic chemical element; symbol Zn; at. no. 30; at. wt. 65.38; m.p. 419.58°C;; b.p. 907°C;; sp. gr. 7.133 at 25°C;; valence +2. Zinc is a lustrous bluish-white metal. It is found in Group 12 of the periodic table. and lead die castings are expected to increase to 36,000 tons in 2007 but drop to 31,000 tons in later years based on conversions to plastics.
The forecast growth in housing starts should spur growth in appliance A stand-alone hardware device or software environment dedicated to a specific task. See hardware appliance and software appliance. production.
Forecast--Gray iron casting shipments likely will decline 5.8% per year based on loss to plastics and aluminum. Aluminum should increase to 76,000 tons in 2007 and continue growth to 78,000 tons in 2008.
Railroad railroad or railway, form of transportation most commonly consisting of steel rails, called tracks, on which freight cars, passenger cars, and other rolling stock are drawn by one locomotive or more.
Freight car deliveries have increased steadily since 2002 to reach 75,000 in 2006. That total is forecast to drop to 62,000 in 2007 and continue near that amount in 2008.
Forecast--Steel railroad castings are forecast to rise to 758,000 tons in 2006 but drop to 578,000 tons by 2008. Imports are estimated at 22% of demand in 2007.
A long-term growth of 3% per year is forecast for engineering and scientific instruments, measuring and controlling instruments, optical and analytical analytical, analytic
pertaining to or emanating from analysis.
control of confounding by analysis of the results of a trial or test. instruments and photographic equipment.
Forecast--Aluminum castings are expected to increase from 125,000 tons in 2006 to 144,000 tons in 2016, a 1.4% annual growth rate.
This article was adapted from the 2007 AFS A distributed file system for large, widely dispersed Unix and Windows networks from Transarc Corporation, now part of IBM. It is noted for its ease of administration and expandability and stems from Carnegie-Mellon's Andrew File System.
AFS - Andrew File System Metalcasting Forecast and Trends Report. For more information, contact AFS Special Publications at 800/537-4237 or www.afsinc.org/estore.
For More Information
"Casting Sales Forecast Sales forecast
A key input to a firm's financial planning process. External sales forecasts are based on historical experience, statistical analysis, and consideration of various macroeconomic factors. to Grow 14% by "08," K. Kirgin, MODERN CASTING, January January: see month. 2006, p. 20.
Ferrous Casting Shipments
Ken Kirgin, Stratecasts Inc. Ft. Myers Myers can refer to: People
Florida (flôr`ĭdə, flŏr`–), state in the extreme SE United States. A long, low peninsula between the Atlantic Ocean (E) and the Gulf of Mexico (W), Florida is bordered by Georgia and
Ferrous Casting Shipments
Shipments of ferrous castings are forecast to decrease 1.2% to 11.1 million tons in 2007 and lose an additional 47,000 through 2008. Sales are forecast to increase to more than $16.6 billion in 2007 and $18.7 billion by 2016.
Gray iron castings are forecast to:
* gain only 88,000 tons in shipments between 2003 and 2006;
* decline 1% to 4.73 million tons of shipments in 2007 with a long-term decline of 0.8%;
* rise to $5.3 billion is sales in 2007.
Ductile iron casting are forecast to:
* rise 0.8% to 4,808,000 tons in shipments in 2007;
* increase to 4.83 million tons in shipments in 2008;
* grow 0.5% in shipments annually through 2016;
* rise to $6.7 billion in sales.
Steel castings are forecast to:
* decrease 8.5% in shipments in 2007;
* decline at an annual rate of 2% in shipments in the next 10 years.
1. Not composed of or containing iron.
2. Of or relating to metals other than iron.
1. Metal Casting Shipments
Shipments of nonferrous castings are forecast to rise at an annual rate of 1.2% through 2016 to 3,593,000 tons. Casting sales are forecast to grow from $14.6 billion in 2006 to $20.2 billion in 2016.
Aluminum castings in the U.S. are forecast to:
* grow 2.2% to 2,388,000 tons in shipments in 2007;
* rise 4.5% in shipments through 2008;
* grow to 2,714,00 tons in shipments by 2016;
* rise to $11.2 billion in sales in 2007 and increase capacity utilization Capacity Utilization measures the rate at which a firm makes use of their capital productive capacities, such as factories and machinery. Capacity Utilization generally rises when the economy is healthy and falls when demand softens. to 84%.
Castings made with brass brass, alloy having copper (55%–90%) and zinc (10%–45%) as its essential components. The properties of brass vary with the proportion of copper and zinc and with the addition of small amounts of other elements, such as aluminum, lead, tin, or nickel. , bronze bronze, in metallurgy
bronze, in metallurgy, alloy of copper, tin, zinc, phosphorus, and sometimes small amounts of other elements. Bronzes are harder than brasses. and other copper-base alloys Noun 1. copper-base alloy - any alloy whose principal component is copper
alloy, metal - a mixture containing two or more metallic elements or metallic and nonmetallic elements usually fused together or dissolving into each other when molten; "brass is an alloy of are forecast to:
* grow 2% in shipments in 2007;
* gain 16,000 tons by 2008--a 4.9% increase;
* decrease at an average annual rate of 0.6% in shipments through 2016.
A 50-year metalcasting industry veteran, Ken Kirgin founded Stratecasts Inc. in the early 1980s to provide domestic and international forecasting and trends analysis and strategic planning Strategic planning is an organization's process of defining its strategy, or direction, and making decisions on allocating its resources to pursue this strategy, including its capital and people. .
Many technological and economic factors have caused a significant shift in the metalcasting industry since 1955, when 6,150 metalcasting facilities operated in the U.S. It now is estimated that the industry will decline to 2,190 facilties in 2007, with 80% of those facilities employing fewer than 100 associates.
Some new and expanded facilities have cropped up in the last few years, but a loss of casting supply of 1 million tons still is expected to occur in 2007 vs. 2001. Table A indicates the forecast capacity and utilization utilization,
n 1. the extent to which a given group uses a particular service in a specified period. Although usually expressed as the number of services used per year per 100 or per 1000 persons eligible for the service, utilization rates may be rates for 2007. A total of 2.2 million tons of surplus supply is forecast.
Table A. Capacity and Utilization Forecast for 2007 Metal Capacity (Tons) Utilization (%) Iron 11,200,000 87 Steel 1,510,000 90 Aluminum 2,840,000 84 Copper-Base 380,000 88 Magnesium 180,000 88 Zinc/Lead 390,000 87 Other Nonferrous 70,000 86 Investment 230,000 86 Table 1. Short- & Long-Term Market Summary for Gray Iron Castings Shipments NAICS Industry Short-Term Long-Term Growth '06/'08 AGR * 234110 Municipal +6.9% +1.3% 234910 Soil Pipe -7.9% -4.1% 331511 Ingot Molds 0% -3.5% 332998 Sanitary/Radiator -4.5% -4% 33291 Valves/Fittings +4.3% -0.4% 333618 Internal -9.1% -1.6% Combustion Engines 33311 Farm Equipment -3.9% -2% 333120 Construction +1.9% +0.2% Equipment 333512 Machine Tool -3.2% +0.2% 33329 Special Industry +4.5% +0.2% Machinery 33391 Pumps/Compressors +4.2% +0.6% 3334 Refrigeration/AC -5% -0.2% 333512 Electrical -3.6% -3.8% 3352 Household 0% -5.8% Appliances 336111,2 Light Vehicles -5% -1% 33612 Medium to -11.4% -0.1% Heavy Trucks TOTAL -1.7% -0.8% NAICS Forecast Factors 234110 Housing starts down 5% in 2006, 2.9%/yr. growth forecast; Imports 35% of demand; 40,000 tons converted to ductile iron in 2007 234910 Replacement by plastics; Imports 20% of demand 331511 Continuous cast steel at 98%; Mini-mills-no-blast furnaces 332998 Replacement by plastic 33291 Growth in housing starts from 2006 low; Loss to plastic & ductile iron; Imports at 37% of demand; Gain vs. malleable iron 333618 Diesel engine casting imports >50% of domestic demand; 360,000 tons/yr. imported 33311 Tractor sales decline in 2006; Conversion to ductile iron; Imports up 333120 Growth in building activity; Exports of machinery rise; Loss to ductile iron 333512 58% loss in demand; Industry moved offshore 33329 Conversion to ductile iron; Loss to foreign manufacturers 33391 Conversion to ductile iron; Oil equipment up 3334 Loss to imports 333512 Loss to aluminum, imports 3352 Loss to plastics, aluminum 336111,2 Loss to aluminum, plastics and imports 33612 Growth in truck, trailer; Peak year in 2006 TOTAL Loss of 80,000 tons by 2008; Loss of 369,000 tons in 10 yrs. * Average Annual Growth Rate 2006-16 Table 2. Short- & Long-Term Market Summary for Ductile Iron Casting Shipments NAICS Industry Short-Term Long-Term Growth '06/'08 AGR * 33291 Valves/Fittings +5.6% +0.3% 332996 Pressure Pipe +2.7% +0.6% 33361 Internal Combustion +8.9% +0.2% Engines 33311 Farm Equipment +7.7% +1.4% 333120 Construction +2.3% +1.9% Equipment 33329 Special Industry +4.5% +1.6% Machinery 33391 Pumps/Compressors +8.2% +1.5% 333612 Gears/Power +10.3% +1.6% Transmission 333611,2 Light Vehicles -2.2% -1% 336212 Medium to -11.4% +0.2% Heavy Truck TOTAL +1.2% +0.5% NAICS Forecast Factors 33291 Industry growth; Replacement of malleable, gray iron; Imports up to 35% (100,000 tons) 332996 Building activity to rise; Exports up; Loss to plastics 33361 Imports increase; Trucks drop 33311 Off-year in 2006; Replace gray iron 333120 Replacement of gray iron, steel, malleable; New municipal parts 33329 Replacement of gray iron; Peak in 2008 33391 Replacement of steel, gray iron 333612 Growth in ADI; Imports up 333611,2 Loss to aluminum in suspension & differential parts; ADI growth; Replacing malleable; Some crankshaft loss to forgings; Imports rise 336212 Truck & trailer production peak in 2006; Replacement of steel & malleable TOTAL Gain 59,000 tons by 2008 * Average Annual Growth Rate 2006-16 Table 3. Short- & Long-Term Market Summary for Steel Castings Shipments NAICS Industry Short-Term Long-Term Growth '06/'08 AGR * 33291 Valves/Fittings -2% -0.9% 333120 Construction +2.1% -0.4% Equipment 333131 Mining Machinery +4.5% -0.2% 333132 Oil Field Equipment +2% -2% 333911 Pumps +5.4% +0.8% 33612 Trucks & Military -8.6% -7% 3365 Railroad -23.7% -3.2% TOTAL -11.4% -2% NAICS Forecast Factors 33291 Imports high 333120 Loss to ductile iron 333131 Imports up 333132 Peak in 2006/08; High oil prices 333911 Petrochemical, chemical up 33612 Substitution by ductile iron 3365 Freight car deliveries peak in 2006; Drop to normal levels TOTAL Loss of 170,000 tons by 2008 as railroad usage moderates * Average Annual Growth Rate 2006-16 Table 4. Short- & Long-Term Market Summary for Aluminum Castings Shipments NAICS Industry Short-Term Long-Term Growth '06/'08 AGR * 33361 Internal Combustion +1.5% +0.7% Engines 333991 Power Tools +2.2% +0.7% 33341 Computer/Office +0% -4% 3334 Refrigeration/AC +9.1% +1.8% 334514 Meters & Regulators +6.1% +0.6% 3352 Household Appliance +5.4% +1.3% 3361 Motor Vehicles +3.4% +1.9% 3364 Aircraft & Parts +6.1% +1.2% 3345 Instruments +4% +1.4% 3421 Marine & Other +8.8% +1.5% TOTAL +4.5% +1.5% NAICS Forecast Factors 33361 Growth in lawn/garden & sport engine vehicles 333991 Loss to magnesium, plastics 33341 Loss to plastic; Decline in main frames 3334 Replacement of gray iron 334514 Growth in housing starts; Loss to plastics 3352 Replacement of gray iron; Loss to plastics 3361 Conversion of blocks, heads, suspension & differential parts; Growth to 280 lbs. of AI per vehicle; Loss to plastics/Mg 3364 Loss to titanium, imports 3345 Parallels industry growth 3421 Growth market TOTAL Gain 105,000 tons in '06/'08 * Average Annual Growth Rate 2006-16 for Copper-Base Casting Shipments Table 5. Short- & Long-Term Market Summary NAICS Industry Short-Term Long-Term Growth '06/'08 AGR * 332913 Plumbing/Sanitary +1.9% -2.3% 332911 Industrial Valves +1.9% -2.5% 332510 Marine +5.3% +1.9% TOTAL +4.9% -0.6% NAICS Forecast Factors 332913 Loss to plastics, imports 332911 Imports gain 332510 High market gain TOTAL Gain 16,000 tons by 2008 * Average Annual Growth Rate 2006-16