U.S. Infrared Sensor Markets To Double, Top $1.3 Billion By 2001, Led By Commercial Applications.

MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--April 5, 1995--Paced by increasing commercial applications, U.S. infrared sensor markets will double from $648 million in 1994 to over $1.3 billion by the year 2001, growing at an 11 percent compound annual rate, projects a new study just released by Frost & Sullivan.

Commercial sales will grow from 22 percent of total revenues in 1994 to 33 percent in 2001 while dominant military sales correspondingly decline in share from 78 to 67 percent in the same period, forecasts the report, U.S. MILITARY AND COMMERCIAL INFRARED SYSTEM MARKETS: EMERGING MATERIALS, PRICE REDUCTIONS OFFER EXCELLENT OPPORTUNITIES.

Major emerging commercial application areas include industrial process control, environmental monitoring, space-based programs, drug and law enforcement, search and rescue, and medical applications.

Reduction in system prices to levels affordable for commercial end-users will be crucial to commercial market expansion. Price, by contrast, was distinctly less important to the military market than performance.

New materials like multiple quantum wells (MQWs), micro- bolometers and ferroelectric devices will facilitate new commercial applications. All three will provide superior resolution and performance at substantially lower cost than current cooled systems, particularly for industries like transportation and home and building security. The market for such materials will grow from virtual non-existence in 1994 to nearly $200 million by the year 2000. Possible future military applications include rifle sights and driver's vision enhancers.

Competition will be fierce as the historically dominant military market is eroded. Industry consolidation will continue.

Defense downsizing and more limited military budgets will negatively affect federal funding for all military programs including infrared systems and continue to spur industry consolidation, like that between Lockheed and Martin Marietta. Layoffs and discontinuation of product lines will also continue in the military sector.

Differentiation of firms as catering specifically to military or commercial markets will blur as more defense companies target the commercial market. On the commercial side, firms that historically had few competitors will contend for the first time with larger well-known defense industry rivals. While name recognition will help the latter, firms that have seized commercial market niches will be hard to dislodge.

There is a shift toward larger focal plane arrays (FPAs) with smaller pixels. Due to the high cost related to large arrays' need for cooling, most of the end-users of these large cooled arrays will be in the military market.

Staring systems, technologically superior to scanning systems, are beginning to replace the latter in some applications, the most notable current example being in the missile seeker market.

Frost & Sullivan is an international high-technology research firm. All Frost & Sullivan reports are based on extensive interviews with marketing and technical experts from selected companies in each market segment. Primary research is validated by thorough analysis of available secondary research. Frost & Sullivan is the leading publisher worldwide of high-technology research reports.

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Report: 5216-16     Publication Date: April 1995     Price: $2495

Total IR Sensor Market:
Unit Shipment and Revenue Forecasts (US),
1991-2001

                                           Revenue
                                  Revenues  Growth
         Year      Units          ($ mil)    (%)

         1991      258,017.8      641.2     -

         1992      283,584.0      647.9     1.1

         1993      316,914.5      653.3     0.8

         1994      357,126.7      658.7     0.8

         1995      959,491.1      666.6     1.2

         1996      2,272,468.4    688.3     3.3

         1997      5,063,020.0    720.2     4.6

         1998      9,107,831.0    809.6     12.4

         1999      16,519,668.9   991.4     22.5

         2000      30,337,869.8   1,202.0   21.2

         2001      56,104,010.9   1,447.9   20.5

                                  CAGR 11.9%

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