U.S. IRP sales to reach nearly $21 billion in 2004.

Sales of industrial rubber products in the U.S. are forecast to increase just over six percent per year to almost $21 billion in the year 2004, significantly outpacing gains in durable goods shipments, according to a new study from The Freedonia Group, a Cleveland-based industrial market research firm. Although forecast to post favorable gains through 2004, growth rates for most major markets of industrial rubber products will decelerate from the healthy expansion rates achieved during the past decade.

Table 1 - industrial rubber product sales by market
(million dollars)

                                                   % Annual
                                                    growth
Industrial rubber
  product sales         1989     1999     2004   99/89   04/99

Motor vehicles         2,278    5,056    6,769     7.0     6.1
Industrial machinery   2,563    4,727    6,254     8.3     6.0
Aerospace & other
  transportation       1,164    2,033    2,828     6.3     5.8
Construction             739    1,605    2,225     5.7     6.8
Off-load equipment       540      868    1,148     8.1     6.8
Other                    608    1,213    1,637     4.9     5.7
Total                  7,892   15,502   20,860     7.2     6.2

Freedonia says demand for industrial rubber products in the construction market will continue to expand despite a projected deceleration in the U.S. construction industry. Expanded use of geomembranes, rubber roofing and robber flooring in the construction industry will provide good opportunities for sales growth. Gains in rubber flooring are benefiting from good performance characteristics as well as product innovations, both of which are expanding the potential market base for these products. Rubber flooring is finding more use in both nonresidential and residential settings.

The aerospace and other transportation markets will post rapid growth through 2004, benefiting from healthy gains in aircraft production, the study says. Also, tighter federal regulations regarding air safety will promote industrial rubber products demand in the repair and maintenance segment.

Mechanical rubber goods will remain the largest product group, with most demand related to motor vehicles. Gains will be buoyed by a number of trends, including the continuing popularity of larger vehicles in comparison to a decade ago and efforts to produce quieter vehicles. Both of these trends are promoting demand for mechanical goods on a per-vehicle basis, particularly for interior sealing and sound dampening applications. Gains will be restrained by a deceleration in the production of larger vehicles and the fact that there is not a significant replacement market for many types of mechanical rubber goods. Other markets for mechanical rubber goods include industrial machinery, appliances, and off-road, aerospace and office equipment.