U.S. FORCES, JET BUDGETS LIKELY TO SHRINK.

Byline: Philip Shenon The New York Times

The Pentagon's most sweeping strategic review since the end of the Cold War will almost certainly result in a cut in U.S. troop strength, especially in the Army, and a reduction in the Air Force and Navy budgets for high-technology jet fighters, Pentagon and congressional officials said Monday.

Officials involved in preparing the Quadrennial Defense Review said the troop cuts could number in the tens of thousands and would help pay for a new generation of weapons.

Defense Secretary William Cohen hinted at the conclusions of the review, which is expected to be made public next month, when he said in a speech Monday at the University of Georgia that ``preparing for this uncertain future requires a robust modernization program.''

``We don't want to engage in a fair fight, a contemporary war of attrition,'' he continued. ``We want to dominate across the full spectrum of conflict, so that if we ever do have to fight, we will win on our terms.''

The process that begins with the release of the Defense Review could alter American military strategy, including revisions in the doctrine that now requires the armed forces to be ready to fight two large regional wars about the same time, with both on the scale of the Persian Gulf war in 1991.

Some Pentagon officials argue that the strategy can be revised, because of the relative weakness of most potential enemies.

But even if the changes are more incremental - and that seems quite likely - a result will still likely be the redistribution of tens of billions of dollars and the elimination of thousands of jobs.

``Everything is on the table,'' said Gen. John Shalikashvili, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. ``For this process to be credible, you have to be able to show that you've considered all the options.''

Pentagon officials say the review is almost certain to result in another round of cuts in the roster of active-duty troops - which stands at one and a half million, down by more than 30 percent in the last decade.

Pentagon officials say the Army may be asked to reduce its roster of 495,000 active-duty troops by as many 50,000, a cut that Army commanders describe as disastrous.

Although the Army is expected to make the largest cuts, despite the angry public objections of its leaders, the other services will quite likely be asked to trim their shopping lists for new fighter jets.

The cuts in troop strength would help pay for the new fighters that remain in the budget, as well as a new generation of battlefield equipment like computerized artillery systems and biological-weapons detectors. The last major weapons-shopping spree was in the Reagan administration, and many of those arms are considered obsolete.

The defense review, which Congress ordered, will be an early test of the leadership of Cohen, who has to find a way to prepare the armed forces for the 21st century while holding the budget to its current level, $250 billion a year, plus inflation.

There have been other strategic reviews in recent years, most notably the Bottom-Up Review by the Pentagon in 1993, the first major reappraisal of the armed forces' mission after the Soviet Union collapsed. But members of Congress felt that a more comprehensive analysis was needed.

After the Defense Department presents the findings next month, an independent expert panel will present a critique. Then Congress, which has the final say on Pentagon spending, reviews both reports as it ponders the military budget.

Congressional leaders say they intended the review to force the Pentagon to grapple with the issues facing the military in the aftermath of the Cold War.

Will high-technology weapons eliminate the need for large numbers of ground troops? Could China rise as a serious military adversary in the next generation? Should resources be shifted from combat training to the sort of training needed for peacekeeping operations like those iun Bosnia and Haiti?

Shalikashvili said in an interview that the goal of the review was to determine ``as far out as we could, 2010 and beyond, what the environment would be out there, what America's interest would be and what the challenges to America's interests would be.''

The review was supposed to focus on military strategy, with the budget a secondary concern. But in an era in which the calls for a balanced federal budget are repeated like a mantra, Pentagon officials assume that there will be no more money for the military.