Two-Thirds of U.S. Adults Would Consider Voting for an Independent Candidate for President.

However, Two-Thirds Would Not Vote For Michael Bloomberg If He Was Going To Run For President

ROCHESTER, N.Y. -- With the recent low approval numbers of both Democrats and Republicans (see Harris Poll #69), people may be looking for an alternative to the status quo among elected officials. Two-thirds of U.S. adults (66%) say they would consider voting for an Independent candidate in the 2008 Presidential Election while three in ten (31%) say they would not consider voting for an Independent. Almost nine in ten of self identified Independents (88%) say they would vote for an Independent for president, as do more than half of Republicans (56%) and six in ten Democrats (59%).

There is also a generational divide. While six in ten (59%) Matures (those 62 and older) and 64 percent of Baby Boomers (those ages 43-61) would vote for an Independent, the number rises with the younger generations. Seven in ten (69%) Gen Xers (ages 31-42) and three-quarters (74%) of Echo Boomers (ages 18-30) all say they would consider voting for an Independent. This may have a lot to do with the fact that these younger generations have yet to make any life-long attachments to parties.

These are some of the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 1,010 U.S. adults surveyed by telephone by Harris Interactive[R] between July 10 and 16, 2007.

Thoughts On Voting For An Independent

There are many arguments for voting for an Independent candidate. One that has been made recently is that it would be good to elect an Independent president as both parties are disappointments and well over half (57%) of adults agree with this statement. Just over half (54%) disagree that it would be better to vote for a Republican or Democratic candidate because voting for an independent would cause the wrong candidate to win the election. Over three in five (63%) disagree that it is better to vote for a Republican or Democratic candidate as voting for an Independent is a wasted vote. While Independents are most likely to be supportive of voting for an Independent, Democrats are more supportive than Republicans are to each of these three arguments.

Michael Bloomberg, Independent For President?

Looking specifically at one possible Independent, if New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg ran for President as an Independent, just over one in five (22%) adults would vote for him while two-thirds (67%) would not vote for him. Again, younger generations are more likely to consider voting for Bloomberg as three in ten (30%) Echo Boomers would vote for him compared to only 17 percent of Matures. Also, not surprisingly, 40 percent of Independents would vote for the Mayor compared to just 12 percent of Republicans and 18 percent of Democrats.

One might also think there would be some regional support for Bloomberg. While 23 percent of Easterners would vote for him, the highest support comes from the South where over one-quarter (27%) would vote for Bloomberg.

One of the possibilities surrounding a Bloomberg presidential run is that he may spend a large amount of his own, personal fortune on such a race; this is a scenario that would be supported by the American public. Three in five (62%) say they would prefer a presidential candidate who pays for his or her own campaign while just over one-quarter (28%) would prefer a presidential candidate who raised money from PACs, special interest groups and individuals. Majorities of Republicans, Democrats and Independents also agree in this area as seven in ten Independents (69%), six in ten Republicans (60%) and 58 percent of Democrats all would prefer a presidential candidate who pays for his or her own campaign.

There is also a large educational divide over this topic. Seven in ten (71%) of those with High School education or less and 61 percent of those with some college education would prefer a presidential candidate who pays for his or her own campaign. Looking at just those who have a college education, the number drops to just half (51%). Those with a post-graduate education, however, are a little more divided as 43 percent would prefer a presidential candidate who raised money from PACs, special interests and individuals while 42 percent would prefer a candidate who pays for his or her own campaign.

Rudy vs. Bloomberg

While only those who have lived in New York City during both mayor's tenures could actually answer the question of who has been the better mayor, it is interesting to note that from the national perspective half (51%) say it has been Rudy Giuliani while one-quarter (25%) say Bloomberg and 24 percent were not sure. In the East, where people may know a little better as they are closer to NYC, half (50%) sill say Rudy while 30 percent say the better mayor was Bloomberg. Republicans seem to be driving this question as seven in ten (70%) say Rudy was a better mayor while only seven percent say it is Bloomberg. Democrats and Independents are a little more torn. Four in ten (41%) of Independents and 45 percent of Democrats say Rudy was the better mayor while one-third (33%) of Independents and 37 percent of Democrats say it is Bloomberg.

So What?

While Michael Bloomberg continues to say he will not run, there is still the constant rumbling from some of his staff and, of course, from the media. But if he does, he will have his work cut out for him. One asset for him is that people say they would be ready to vote for an Independent and the recent record low approval ratings of many in politics might support this. A second asset is that people also seem ready for a completely self-financing candidate - something he could accomplish easily. However, people don't know him and most would not vote for him. He would also have to be ready for the inevitable comparison to the other NYC mayor in the race - and the fact that a majority think the other guy was the better mayor.

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Methodology

The Harris Poll([R]) was conducted by telephone within the United States between July 10 and 16, 2007 among a nationwide cross section of 1,010 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race, education, number of adults, number of voice/telephone lines in the household, region and size of place were weighted where necessary to align them with their actual proportions in the population.

In theory, with a probability sample of this size, one can say with 95 percent certainty that the results of the overall sample have a sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points of what they would be if the entire U.S. adult population had been polled with complete accuracy. Sampling error for the sub-sample results is higher and varies. Unfortunately, there are several other possible sources of error in all polls or surveys that are probably more serious than theoretical calculations of sampling error. They include refusals to be interviewed (nonresponse), question wording and question order, interviewer bias, weighting by demographic control data and screening (e.g., for likely voters). It is impossible to quantify the errors that may result from these factors. Therefore there is no way to calculate a finite "margin of error" for any survey and the use of these words should be avoided.

These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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About Harris Interactive

Harris Interactive is the 12th largest and fastest-growing market research firm in the world. The company provides innovative research, insights and strategic advice to help its clients make more confident decisions which lead to measurable and enduring improvements in performance. Harris Interactive is widely known for The Harris Poll, one of the longest running, independent opinion polls and for pioneering online market research methods. The company has built what it believes to be the world's largest panel of survey respondents, the Harris Poll Online. Harris Interactive serves clients worldwide through its United States, Europe and Asia offices, its wholly-owned subsidiaries Novatris in France and MediaTransfer AG in Germany, and through a global network of independent market research firms. More information about Harris Interactive may be obtained at www.harrisinteractive.com.To become a member of the Harris Poll Online and be invited to participate in online surveys, register at www.harrispollonline.com.

Harris Interactive Inc. 07/07