Turks ponder problems of Iraq incursion

Turkey has options if it decides to launch a major assault on Kurdish rebels in Iraq: airstrikes on suspected hideouts, helicopter-borne commando raids, or the long-term occupation of a "buffer" zone to seal off paths across the mountainous border.

But such tactics, or some combination of them, have limits against a foe familiar with the harsh terrain of northern Iraq and adept at hit-and-run attacks and laying roadside bombs.

Adding a complication, winter is drawing near, and rain and snow could slow or halt tanks and helicopters of the second largest army in NATO after that of the United States.

The onset of cold weather will also signal an end to the traditional fighting season of the rebel Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, whose fighters have less mobility when snow blocks the mountain passes. That means a likely reduction in guerrilla raids, and their withdrawal from camps near the border to areas deeper inside Iraq.

"An autumn operation, when the campaigning season is already drawing to a close, is likely to have only a limited effect on the PKK's ability to return to the offensive once the winter snows begin to melt in spring 2008," Gareth Jenkins wrote in an analysis for The Jamestown Foundation, a national security policy institute in Washington.

The PKK, which has fought for autonomy for Turkish Kurds since 1984, is seen as having provoked Turkey into planning an attack into Iraq. Rebels possibly believe Turkey's larger troop numbers and heavy guns and armor will count for little in mountains where speed and stealth are key, leading to a messy conflict that alienates the Turkish government from its international allies as well as moderate Kurds at home.

The military challenges partly explain why Turkey, which conducted several offensives involving tens of thousands of soldiers in Iraq in the 1990s but was unable to eradicate the PKK, is reluctant to charge into what some Turkish commentators are already calling a "quagmire."

For now, Turkey's leaders are pursuing a diplomatic track, pressuring the United States and Iraq to crack down on the PKK.

They know a cross-border campaign would hurt ties with Washington, which views an incursion as a threat to stability in northern Iraq, and could undermine Turkey's bid to join the European Union, which demands more rights for Kurds and other minorities as a condition of membership.

Turkey has sought understanding from the Arab world for what it says is a fight against terrorism, but the unforeseen consequences of an offensive — for example, an escalated conflict drawing in Iran and Syria — could devastate its international image. Lengthy Turkish intervention could invite comparisons with the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq or even Israel's former occupation of southern Lebanon.

An operation in Iraq is unlikely to have the willing participation of Iraqi Kurds who could provide assistance such as choking off PKK supply lines. During incursions more than a decade ago, Turkey teamed with Iraqi Kurds and inflicted blows on Turkish Kurd militants.

At that time, Turkey was part of a U.S.-led effort to protect Iraqi Kurds from Saddam Hussein, but relations have soured since then.

Now the Turkish army might have to deploy troops to deter any Iraqi Kurd hostility. Iraqi Kurds, in turn, speculate Turkey's real motive for entering Iraq would be to punish them for promoting Kurdish separatism in their oil-rich territory.

Turkey is already testing the waters with cross-border artillery shelling, and Turkish army units are conducting "hot pursuits" — limited raids on the Iraqi side that sometimes last only a few hours.

On Sunday, Turkey sent AH-1 SuperCobra helicopter gunships up to three miles inside Iraq hours after guerrillas killed 12 soldiers in an ambush on the Turkish side of the border, a Turkish military officer said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak to journalists.

On Wednesday, Turkish warplanes and helicopter gunships reportedly attacked positions held by Kurdish fighters along the rugged border with Iraq.

Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said Turkey could stage a limited offensive along a corridor pushed about 20 to 30 miles into Iraq, where the steep mountains that form the border become more manageable hills.

Cagaptay noted the area is far from large population centers in northern Iraq and would be "marginal in its impact on the daily life of Iraqis."

Necati Ozgen, a former Turkish army general, said rebel bases are 12 to 18 miles inland from the 200-mile-long border between Iraq and Turkey.

"In order to get a decisive result, this area needs to be held under control for a long period of time," Ozgen said in an interview with AP Television News. "An operation that will last a week, where soldiers will go in and out quickly, will bear no result."

However, Ozgen said, there were probably few people in the PKK camps now and he felt Turkey should instead conduct a spring offensive.

Turkish military intelligence estimates there are up to 5,000 PKK rebels, most of them inside Iraq, while the Pentagon has said 60,000 Turkish soldiers are deployed on the border. Many soldiers are conscripts without training in counterinsurgency.

Another possible target is the network of PKK camps around Qandil mountain, which straddles the Iran-Iraq border and is 60 miles from the frontier between Iraq and Turkey. Qandil is the PKK headquarters, and weapons and ideological training occurs on its bleak slopes.

Turkish ground troops have never gone as far as Qandil, which could entail heavy casualties. A more likely scenario would be bombing runs by F-16 warplanes, though their effectiveness against caves and camouflaged hideouts is in question. Turkey lacks the kind of heavy bombs that the United States used against Taliban and al-Qaida hideouts in Afghanistan.

Iran is fighting a Kurdish rebel group with PKK links that is also based at Qandil, raising the possibility that Iranian and Turkish troops could coordinate bombardments to squeeze their adversaries. Some Iranian and Turkish shelling of Iraqi territory in August occurred around the same time, though neither country has said they worked together.

A Western diplomat, who spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to the media, said he visited an abandoned PKK base in Iraq during a Turkish offensive in the mid-1990s. He said the entrance to the camp, which had classrooms and a library, was recessed into the side of a mountain and was not visible from the air.

The diplomat said the guerrillas are mobile and lightly equipped. Destroying camps and killing some fighters would disrupt their activities but would not prevent them from regrouping, he said.

Any operation, the diplomat said, could bring a temporary tactical success but might mean little in the long term.

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Christopher Torchia is The Associated Press chief of bureau in Istanbul.