Turkey Will Take A Positive Turn If Islamists, Army & EU Play Their Cards Right.

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NICOSIA - The election results in Turkey, giving 64% of the seats in the Grand National Assembly (parliament) to the Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has Islamic leanings, represent a watershed for the secular Kemalist system in place since the early 20th century. Experts consulted by APS note that this "potential turning point in the history of modern Turkey" coincides positively with a peace plan, presented on Nov. 11 by the UN, for the future of Cyprus which could eventually bring about better enlargement prospects for the European Union (EU).

The experts believe the focus of the new government in Turkey will be on good governance and economic growth - two areas where the traditional parties failed to perform, leading to an unprecedented electoral defeat.

The challenge for the AKP, to prove that secularism born of Islam is more viable under Islamists democrats than under corrupt Kemalists, coincides with the challenge for the EU to prove that European secularism is not the monopoly of Christianity (see the focus on Cyprus & EU enlargement in next week's News Service).

Strong enough in parliament to push through legislation on its own, the AKP now has to take the responsibility for Turkey's future as no government in the 1990s could do - all having been part of weak coalitions, propped up at the will of the military establishment. AKP will also have to take the blame if things go wrong. So far, indications are that the party will take the moderate path. Its biggest fear is intervention by the military in order to re-impose a stricter Kemalist order.

The Turkish military establishment, which regards itself as the guardian of Kemalist secularism, has warned in a statement that it will not allow Islamic radicalism to raise its head in the country. Over the past four decades the army has closed down four Islamist parties. On Nov. 3, the day of the election, the Turkish Chief of Staff Gen. Hilmi Ozkok flew to Washington for week-long meetings to discuss the expected US assault on Iraq, in which Turkish bases - and perhaps Turkish forces - would play a key part. Given the unexpectedly high percentage of votes (34%) for the AKP, Gen. Ozkok's talks covered the Turkish political developments.

The Turkish military establishment will be reluctant to intervene in the political sphere in view of the negative impact on Ankara's EU hopes and because of the negative implications for the country's economy.

However, the military will step in if it sees that Kemalism is being threatened, because the army considers that retaining the country's Kemalist ideology is of greater importance than EU membership. It does not, on the other hand, see why its insistence on a secular ideology for Turkey should function as an obstacle to membership of the European Union.

Erdogan, who is under investigation for corruption, has been very careful to give the military establishment its due especially on strategic questions, although the AKP has emerged with such a high percentage of the total vote. He has pointed out that on strategic matters the decision of the National Security Council, which is dominated by military officers, would be paramount.

Erdogan quickly backed up on Nov. 4 after making a faux pas by suggesting that the Cyprus problem could be settled on the "Belgian model"; after he was blasted for "ignorance" by foreign ministry bureaucrats and visited by them for briefings, he later stated that a solution could be "inspired" by the model. The Greek Cypriots had chosen the Swiss model, and the UN peace plan for Cyprus is based on the Swiss model. On Nov. 12, the AKP leader threw his weight behind the UN plan, saying: "No matter how much we say 'It's not related, they're not linked', solving the Cyprus issue would not just accelerate the EU process (for Turkish membership) but also be a concrete and useful step to overcoming many problems between Turkey and Greece".

By then the AKP leader had moved quickly to set minds at ease in the US and EU. On Nov. 10, Erdogan had called on his party to stick to Turkey's secular laws. In a televised address to AKP deputies, he said: "We have no time for political hostilities. You must not do anything at all that will disturb society. I believe that nothing unpleasant will occur in the AKP Parliament".

Such an atmosphere will not be easy to maintain. The AKP's constituency is regarded as being a mixture of the rural middle class and the urban poorer classes as well as a section of professionals and intellectuals, all of whom tend to have a conservative outlook. But, equally important, the AKP also won votes from the secularised urban middle classes that were fed up with the corruption of traditional Kemalist parties.

Balancing the aspirations of each of these groups may prove a task too complex for the AKP, which is relatively inexperienced in politics at the national level. Moreover, the army will be looking closely over its shoulder to ensure that nothing remotely resembling a challenge to the Kemalist order is legislated.

The AKP has the parliamentary basis for a stable government that will last its term in office. The only other party that is entering parliament, the centre-left Republican People's Party (CHP) of Deniz Baykal, which controls 36% of the seats, has signalled that it is prepared to co-operate with AKP. The CHP, revived in the late 1990s, is the party of the founder of modern Turkey, Kemal Ataturk.

CHP Deputy Kemal Dervis, a popular former economy minister and respected World Bank economist who is the architect of Turkey's economic stabilisation programme, wrote in the Financial Times of Nov. 3 that his party was "ready to work closely with the AKP government to further Turkey's integration" into the EU. Emphasising good governance in the article, Dervis pointed out that the success of the AKP will depend on whether it can: (1) formulate and implement an economic policy that avoids "rent-seeking" and "special deals" - i.e. a variation of crony capitalism that "almost bankrupted the country"; (2) navigate Turkey into the EU enlargement programme, with membership being "a national goal that transcends party lines"; and (3) resist the pressure to chisel away at the Kemalist superstructure of Turkey, namely the secular nature of the republic and its constitution. Failure in any one of these spheres can mean the end of the AKP.

Ironically, the most difficult issue for the new government to deal with may be the question of accession to the EU. On Nov. 8, Valery Giscard d'Estaing, the former French president and the man currently charged with drawing up a constitution for the EU, said Turkey's membership would represent "the end of the European Union", pointing out that "its capital is not in Europe, 95% of its population is outside Europe, it is not a European country". Such statements reinforce the belief among many Turks that the EU sees itself as a "Christian club". It also strengthens the Islamist element in the country at the expense of the secular forces. Erdogan dismissed d'Estaing's comments as "emotion".

Erdogan's first trip as leader of the ruling party in Turkey was to be a tour of EU states to demand a formal date for the start of accession talks. Brussels is under intense pressure from the US to show Ankara some light at the end of the tunnel.

Much will depend on how Turkey and Greece and their allies in Cyprus respond to the UN plan to resolve the island's problem.