Turkey's Leaders Begin Wondering If Joining The EU Is Worth The Price They Must Pay.

ANKARA - As Turkey and the European Union continue talks on the possibility of EU accession, the number of Turkish leaders having doubts about the advisability of their country becoming a member of this union. Ankara should also re-examine economic policies it has pursued in the last five years, which are unsustainable.

While the issue of Turkey joining the EU has already split the union, new terms emerging from the European side keep adding to the price of Ankara becoming a member of this club. The latest one, leaked in Brussels on Nov. 29, says Turkey will have to recognise the Republic of Cyprus, if only tacitly, if it wants to begin membership negotiations with the EU.

The number of Euro-sceptics doubting that the EU could absorb a large Muslim country has increased at a rapid pace in recent weeks. Worries that richer West European nations would be forced to subsidise Turkey, which would be one of the EU's biggest but poorest members, and that Turkey's entry into the EU could trigger a wave of migration, have combined with concerns that Turkey does not share European values.

These doubts have hardened public opinion in some countries and led some governments, such as the one in France where a majority of citizens oppose Turkey's membership, to suggest that Turkey be given a loose association with the EU rather than full membership. Ankara has made it clear it will accept nothing short of a full membership.

The focus on new conditions and obstacles, such as a term now that Turkey recognise Cyprus, has dismayed Ankara. The Turkish government insists it will not recognise Cyprus, which joined the EU in May, despite Cypriot threats to veto accession negotiations.

However, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Dec. 7 sounded a defiant note, saying if any conditions were added to Turkey's application for EU membership, it would be "unacceptable".

European leaders such as French President Jacques Chirac have pushed for the EU to leave open the possibility of an agreement on Dec. 17 that would allow the bloc to offer only "privileged partnership" should full membership negotiations eventually founder, with Turkey not expected to finish the talks before 2015.

In an interview with European journalists, Erdogan reiterated that he would reject any such offer. "We have begun the match", he said. "You cannot change the rules of the game half way through". He said he had three conditions for the Dec. 16-17 meeting of EU leaders, which will pronounce on whether to begin Turkey's membership talks. He said the EU had to offer Turkey full membership, a clear starting date for negotiations and no further criteria for entry. He would therefore not accept any threat to link the EU's decision on Turkey and Ankara's tense relations with Cyprus, a country Turkey invaded in 1974 and with which it has no diplomatic ties.

Erdogan said since the Turkish Cypriots of north Cyprus had supported a UN-brokered peace plan for the island, which was rejected by the Greek Cypriots of the south, it was "a bit unjust" to expect Turkey to do more, adding: "We believe that the question of Cyprus will find a solution in the UN. We don't want this problem to be put on the table on Dec. 17th".

Cyprus President Tassos Papadopoulos has threatened to use his veto at the summit unless Ankara takes steps towards normalising Turkish-Cypriot ties.

Despite clear differences between his position and that taken by some EU member-states, Erdogan said he was confident of the results of the summit. "What pretext has the European Union for imposing new conditions?" he asked. He said he had reached an understanding with Gerhard Schroder, the German chancellor, and Chirac on discussing sensitive issues such as a possible French referendum on Turkey's membership, ahead of the summit.

"There are no obstacles left", said Erdogan. "It's out of the question that any new conditions are imposed". He said Turkey's entrance into the EU, with its overwhelmingly Muslim population, would not pose a problem since it was already a member of international bodies like NATO and the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe.

What drew fire in Ankara on Nov. 29 was the leak of a document which says Turkey has to recognise the Republic of Cyprus, if only tacitly, if it wants to begin membership negotiations with the EU. The document emerged as intense manoeuvring began in anticipation of a decision by EU governments on whether Turkey can begin accession negotiations, with the decision set for Dec. 17. The draft document, prepared by the Dutch government, appeared to hold out the prospect for negotiations between the EU and Turkey to begin next year, as Turkey desires. But the draft underlined that Turkey's entry into the EU was not guaranteed.

If Turkey failed to make progress on human rights and democratic reforms during the negotiating period, then the talks could be suspended by the European Commission or at the request of at least nine EU member-states, the paper said. The draft, discussed by EU ambassadors on Dec. 1, is to form the basis of negotiations in anticipation of the Dec. 17 vote by EU leaders. (The issue of Turkey's membership has become so sensitive that the supposedly restricted document was leaked within an hour of it being circulated among embassies in Brussels).

Turkey is the only European country which does not recognise the Cypriot government and is the only country in the world which recognises the Turkish Cypriot state. Turkey claims the Cypriot government only represents the majority Greek Cypriot community on the divided island. The new term, in a draft document, would require Turkey to commit to "good neighbourly relations" and a "resolution of remaining border disputes", implying a tacit recognition of Cyprus. The draft also foresees Turkey recognising the 10 member-states that joined the EU in May, which includes Cyprus.

Erdogan was in Brussels on Dec. 10 to press his case for a start to EU entry talks without unfair conditions, while diplomats searched for a formula to assuage West European countries where public opposition to Turkish membership is strong. At a meeting with Erdogan at the EU headquarters, the Commission's President Jose Manuel Barroso expressed an "expectation" to see a gesture from Turkey on Cyprus before the summit. Erdogan said Turkey was not going to take any further steps on Cyprus.

An opinion survey - Eurobarometre - published on Dec. 10 by the EU executive highlighted resistance to the prospect of Turkey joining the EU. It said only a narrow plurality in the 15 old EU states - 49 to 40% - favour further enlargement of the bloc. Turkey was not mentioned in the question, but it is the largest candidate. There was more enthusiasm for the 10 new states that joined in May. For these, 72% were in favour and only 14% against. But 62% of Austrians, 57% of Germans, 54% in Luxembourg, 52% in Finland and 51% in France opposed further enlargement of the Union.

Nicolas Sarkozy, the former French finance minister who took over as leader of France's ruling party on Nov. 28, and who has exploited the rising tide of opposition towards Turkey, said he was opposed to Turkey's entry to the EU, preferring instead to see Turkey "associated" with Europe. But in London, Prime Minister Tony Blair, one of Ankara's strongest supporters, said Turkey should not face more hurdles than any other prospective members. "Turkey is not actually asking for favourable treatment; it's asking for the same treatment", Blair said during his monthly Downing Street news conference, adding: "There should be no special obstacles put in its way, but the criteria that have to be applied should be applied to Turkey fairly and properly".