Turkey, Under Stable Govt., Tries To Tame Itself To EU Standards.

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NICOSIA - The government of Prime Minister Bulent Ecevit in Turkey is preparing to meet the next set of challenges facing the country. Having imposed a degree of political stability, for the first time since the Ozal era, the Turkish governing elite is focusing on integration into the EU. Senior Turkish politicians and officials have admitted in recent weeks that EU membership requires several changes to the Turkish system, affecting domestic and external policies. Pressures are building up as a result of the need for such changes, being demanded by the EU as well as multilateral agencies, and because of their domestic political implications.

Taken as a whole, these changes imply a taming of Turkey by itself so that it meets the various European criteria. The question for the Turkish elite is whether the military establishment, which is still the real power behind the scenes, will be prepared to go all the way in meeting these criteria. There are doubts among EU countries about this because the Turkish military views the Kurdish question, democracy, human rights, etc. through the prism of Kemalist ideology - and ideology under which everything is to be subsumed to protect the notion of Turkish unitary nationhood under a secular system envisaged by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the father of modern Turkey.

While the EU is satisfied with the pro-Western philosophy behind Kemalism, member states are not fully comfortable with its rigid ideological outlook and dependence on the military establishment. Aware of the realities on the ground - including the divide between urban, secular and highly Westernised Turkey on the one hand and traditional, Islamic Turkey on the other - EU members are concerned that stability in Turkey is too dependent on Kemalism. The question of what happens if Kemalism is undermined is a long-term consideration that the EU has to take into account in considering Turkey's membership.

To some extent EU concerns in this regard can be eased if Turkey tames itself, giving an opportunity for currently suppressed tendencies to move into the political mainstream. From the EU perspective, the main issues to be resolved include the question of human rights violations by the military and police forces, geo-political issues such as relations with Greece and Cyprus, and domestic questions such as the nature of Turkish democracy and the status of the Kurdish minority. The pressures arising from related requirements on the Kemalist elite go to the core of the concept of the Turkish nation as defined by Ataturk. Despite that, several Turkish politicians have shown readiness to be flexible on the Kurdish question, democratic practice within Turkey and on improving relations with Greece.

On the Turkish side, there are concerns that taming the state to EU standards would mean opening up the domestic political field for Kurdish separatism and Islamic radicalism. In terms of external policy, it will mean Turkey would have to become more flexible on regional disputes; Ankara's response to the latest UN proposals on the Cyprus question indicate this is unlikely. Moreover, Ankara remains extremely sensitive to human rights charges. Turkish officials reacted angrily after the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Nov. 15 passed a resolution formally accusing it of genocide against Armenians 85 years ago; this came just a week after the EU outlined to Turkey the political and economic changes it must make for membership talks to begin.

Taming itself to EU standards will also mean Turkey would have to strike a finer balance in its relations with the US and the EU. Observers point out that the US has always relied upon Turkey to do "the dirty work" on regional issues over which Washington has scant chance of direct support from the EU - as in Washington's Iraq policy. As an EU member, Turkey would have to be more sensitive to EU perceptions in such matters.

This would become even more important in light of the proposed new EU rapid reaction force, to which Turkey has indicated willingness to contribute up to 5,000 members - the single biggest force from a non-EU country. Turkey has indicated that its participation in such a force would depend on how closely Ankara is allowed to participate in future EU defence policy. So far, however, Brussels has stopped short of meeting Turkish demands.

Corruption & The World Bank: Pressure from another quarter, the World Bank/IMF combine, is related more to domestic issues - the question of good governance and the eradication of corruption. Here, too, some Turkish government officials - notable among them being Interior Minister Sadettin Tantan - are ready to meet the challenges. Tantan, a former police chief and one of the most popular politicians in Turkey today, has called for comprehensive action "to drain the swamp of corruption".

A wrestling enthusiast, Tantan has said that the "corruption economy" drives up prices by 20% and provides money for everything from political intrigue to Kurdish separatism. His anti-corruption drive is much supported by the general public because he has targeted the powerful as well - including Murat Demirel, the nephew of a former president, Suleyman Demirel. Tantan has instructed the country's 81 senior local government officials to develop a plan for attacking corruption, paying particular attention to graft in state contracts.

The World Bank has agreed to help Turkey to launch a multi-pronged offensive against corruption. World Bank Director for Turkey, Ajay Chhibber, said recently that Turkish "people are fed up. They want to live in clean society". The World Bank wants to work with the Interior Ministry's Anti-Corruption Centre, along three axes: (1) experts from countries like Singapore, where corruption is low and anti-corruption measures have been effective, would provide input into tackling the problem; (2) reviews of public expenditure, financial accounting, auditing and procurement will be carried out, and the Bank will use these studies to tie a new $800 million loan for Turkey in 2001 to specific reforms in the private sector; and (3) continue to work with the government on regulatory reform in economic sectors where, as Chhibber puts it, private sector operators have been able "to use the levers of the state for personal gain".

Chhibber has pointed out that recent arrests of businessmen charged with siphoning money out of some of the 10 troubled banks under state administration had revealed "big-time corruption" in parts of the 81-member banking industry. Turkey's taxpayers would have to foot a bill of at least $6 billion to recapitalise these banks which are to be sold to new private owners.

A new quasi-independent Banking Regulatory and Supervisory Agency set up in September on the urging of the World Bank/IMF has made a strong start in disciplining the sector and eliminating political corruption. The agency has also seized 10 of the country's 36 private banks on the ground of mismanagement and abuse and may seize more. Tantan said, in a recent speech to business leaders and academics that the battle had just begun. "Thieves and exploiters who should be locked up are able to wander among us as respected people and are even greeted with bowing and scraping... Let no one tell us to stop the operations."