Turbo-gloom and Anno Horribilis: Prepare for turbulent times.
Saxo Bank's Chief Economist The Chief Economist is a single position job class having primary responsibility for the development, coordination, and production of economic and financial analysis. It is distinguished from the other economist positions by the broader scope of responsibility encompassing the , David Karsbol warns that the market has looked too far ahead of the curve in pricing its recovery, and that the fundamental problems within the economy, such as the unsustainable debt burden leading to sub par consumption growth resulting in write downs and earnings recession, remain unresolved Not completed; not finished; not linked together. See resolve. .
David Karsbol says, "In developed economies, the consumer has yet to deleverage, and in developing markets, export-oriented economies will require more time to restructure for sustainable growth in the future. Risk appetite has increased in a nearly uninterrupted arc, as markets boldly predict a V-shaped recovery. However, we believe that the recovery will be flat-to-w-shaped and will take at least another 18 months to work its way through lay-offs, write downs and rationalisations".
In its third quarterly outlook on saxobank.com, the Copenhagen-based investment specialist warns that irresponsible ir·re·spon·si·ble
1. Marked by a lack of responsibility: irresponsible accusations.
2. Lacking a sense of responsibility; unreliable or untrustworthy.
3. fiscal policy, creating massive - and growing - public debt, will lead to bond market dislocation dislocation, displacement of a body part, usually a bone. When a bone is dislocated, the ends of opposing bones are usually forced out of connection with one another. In the process, bruising of tissues and tearing of ligaments may occur. .
Karsbol adds, "It is no surprise to see strong stock market bounces when the economy, as a result of the outright panic we have seen, has been so depressed. However, the degree and persistence of the rebound in risk appetite has been remarkable and surprised many, including Saxo Bank This article or section needs sources or references that appear in reliable, third-party publications. Alone, primary sources and sources affiliated with the subject of this article are not sufficient for an accurate encyclopedia article. . Unfortunately, at some point during the next six months, we expect risk appetite to plummet again as the market realises that it has raced ahead of itself".
The main question for the medium term will be long interest rates which, if they continue rising, could create an even more chaotic and volatile market environment than the already ugly one envisioned in the Saxo Bank's baseline scenario for 2009 called Turbo-gloom and Anno Horribilis.
"I would advise investors to fasten their seatbelts and buckle up for a bumpy bump·y
adj. bump·i·er, bump·i·est
1. Covered with or full of bumps: a bumpy country road.
2. Marked by bumps and jolts; rough: a bumpy flight. ride as fear and negativity could make a strong comeback when the summer is over", says Karsbol.
2009 CPI (1) (Characters Per Inch) The measurement of the density of characters per inch on tape or paper. A printer's CPI button switches character pitch.
(2) (Counts Per I Financial. All rights reserved.
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