Translating foresight into strategy.

The authors of the ASAF Foundation's new book, From Scan to Plan: Integrating Trends into the Strategy Making Process, explain how you can stop perfecting the past and start preparing for the future.

IS YOUR STRATEGIC PLAN STILL STRATEGIC? If you're following the recipe used for the last 20 years, it probably isn't, according to Jim Dalton, CAE, strategic counsel, Derwood, Maryland. "The old approach to strategic planning evolved into a template. It became fill in the blank," he says. "The nature of strategic planning has changed. Today, strategy needs to constantly adapt and change its direction. This requires strategy making to be robust and ongoing."

The rate of change in the world has precipitated alterations in the way associations make strategy, Dalton says. Back when the rate of change was slower, you could get away with strategic planning in three-year intervals because the future was more predictable. Not so now.

Dalton and co-authors Jennifer Jarratt and John B. Mahaffie, both principals in Leading Futurists LLC, Washington, D.C., teamed up to share strategic planning strategies in a new ASAE Foundation book scheduled for release at ASAE Hawai'i 2003. Divided into two sections, From Scan to Plan: Integrating Trends Into the Strategy Making Process first identifies current trends that could influence your association's operations and then offers step-by-step instructions for collecting useful information, interpreting it, and converting the interpretation into strategies that address future opportunities and threats.

Too often organizations start planning with what they have in the room," Mahaffie says. "They gather decision makers together and channel what they know--issues, challenges, and opportunities--into their thinking. As they do this, other things are emerging that, although still around the corner, could alter their assumptions. A little bit of foresight allows you to widen and deepen your view into the future."

He cautions executives against perfecting-the-past syndrome. "Yes, you need to be very, very good at what you do now, but you also have the responsibility to prepare for what isn't true now but will be true later. Otherwise, you're perfecting on the present or past. Catching up and keeping up is a good thing to do, but you also need to get ready for change."

Six steps to take

By combining their knowledge, the book's authors came up with six steps for translating foresights into strategy making.

1. Plan. "You need to plan the effort to ensure the right people are involved and the right resources are available," Mahaffie says. He advises you to clarify in advance what your organization is willing to change. "What's on the table?" he asks.

2. Scan. During the scanning phase, you will discover trends occurring in your members' trade or profession, in associations, and in the wider world. Don't neglect world trends, Jarratt advises. "Many associations frequently do a very narrow form of environmental scanning. Because they only look in their own industry or profession and not at what's happening beyond their field, they can be blindsided," she says. "Extend your borders."

Mahaffie compares scanning to "lifting your head above the tall grass and looking further in the distance to see what lies ahead." Armed with this insight, you stop reacting to events and start shaping them. "Environmental scanning gets people thinking in a more opportunity-oriented way about what can be, not just what must be or what we can't seem to stop from happening," he continues. "It's a way to turn uncertainty, and sometimes even fear, into positive energy."

3. Interpret. Here you want to identify and analyze the trends and what they mean to your association. "Organizations that automatically look to the future on a regular basis know what's coming down the road," Jarratt says. "If you're trying to do strategic planning without looking at all the emerging issues, you're wearing blinders. You're not looking at your whole potential operating environment."

4. Establish a framework. "Do all of your decision makers understand strategic management?" asks Dalton. During this step, you want to reach a consensus on key terms and create a model of how strategy works.

5. Identify strategic issues. Based on your scan and trend analysis, you need to recognize and identify the critical issues for your association. This is where most of the heavy lifting takes place, according to Dalton. "You must keep the issue in front of you at all times," he says. "The issue is always about the industry or profession. The issue is what holds the attention of the best and the brightest in the industry. A lot of groups will focus on an issue long enough to come up with a strategy. Then they forget about the issue. You need to keep the issue on your radar screen at all times."

6. Develop strategies. During this step, you lay out a preliminary action plan that will get you from the issue to the outcome in a manner that is respectful of your guiding principles. But be sure you know exactly what the problem is before you start talking about the solution, Dalton warns. The biggest mistake executives make is not getting consensus around an issue before pursing an action plan. The energy that motivates a crowd is more in the issue than the strategy."

Constantly reinvent strategy Developing strategy for your association is not like launching a missile, Dalton points out. A missile, once launched, is self-directed and just keeps on going until its target is reached. A strategy, on the other hand, "needs to be constantly reinvented."

As you ponder making strategy for your association, he suggests you ask the following questions:

* Do the people involved understand what forces are driving the strategic issue and the consequences of not acting on the issue? White papers and analytical background statements may be appropriate here, he says.

* What is your association, industry, or profession currently doing to address related aspects of the issue? A complete assessment of these activities may be beneficial.

* What don't you know about the issue that you know you need to know? Dalton classifies this as "informed ignorance."

* Who are your competitors? He says that other organizations may be trying to address the same issue. "Would they gain competitive advantage if they become the first to resolve it?" he asks.

* Have you clearly established appropriate guiding principles? These policies set up the parameters of what is right and what is wrong. If the principles arc not in place, develop them and obtain the necessary approvals.

* What is your desired outcome? At first, you may not reach an informed, fully developed agreement on a desired outcome. He suggests that you start with a list of attributes and build on it over time.

* What cause-and-effect activities would move you from the current situation to the desired outcome? Always have a working model of how you will get to your desired outcome, he says, even if you abandon initial assumptions once you acquire more information.

* What are your known obstacles? Create a list of possible forces that might prevent your activities from working effectively.

"Strategy making is now seen as a continuous operation," Dalton says. "You must ask yourself, 'What are the forces, be they threat or opportunity, in the environment that I need to respond to,' and 'What should I be doing about them?' These are not two retreat questions. These are two continuous, ongoing questions."

From Scan to Plan to Your Own Hands

Ready to put your scan to work? To purchase From Scan to Plan: Integrating Trends Into the Strategy Making Process, the latest book from the ASAE Foundation, look no further than the ASAE online bookstore at www.asaenet.org/bookstore or contact the ASAE Member Service Center at 202-371-0940 or 888-950-ASAE; fax: [phone]; or e-mail [e-mail]. (Request product AMB-218102, $53.95 for members and $69.95 for nonmembers.) Or if you are going to ASAE Hawai'i 2003, pick up a copy there.

RELATED ARTICLE: Scanning the Scan

The ASAE Foundation has produced trend studies before. What makes From Scan to Plan: Integrating Trends Into the Strategy Making Process different is that it tells you how to apply results. "Some of the readers of previous environmental scans have said, 'That's good stuff, but we'd also like to know what to do with it,"' says John B. Mahaffie, a Washington, D.C., futurist. "The new field book provides an update to the trend study as well as information explaining how an executive can do environmental scanning, discover trends, and then connect the insights and strategies."

Here are four of the trends identified in the book by Mahaffie and Jennifer Jarratt, both principals in Leading Futurists LLC, Washington, D.C.

1. PEOPLE ARE USING INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AS A TOOL TO EXPLORE NEW WAYS OF RELATING TO EACH OTHER. The good news: Associations are improving their Web sites, using information technology tools to communicate with members, and making themselves storehouses of available information, says Mahaffie. The bad news: These new capabilities could mean the end of associations because people can do for themselves what associations have traditionally done for them.

"Information of all kinds is within reach of the average citizen," Jarratt adds. "This is beginning to have a marked effect on the way associations do their work. Members may not necessarily need an association if they can get information elsewhere."

2. IN THESE UNCERTAIN TIMES, ASSOCIATIONS CAN BE A ROCK OF CERTAINTY IN A TURBULENT STREAM OF EVENTS. Jarratt and Mahaffie indicate that some members may need your association more than ever because their membership represents continuity and gives them the opportunity to remain current, to network, and to be with their peers.

"With the loss of hundreds of thousands of jobs in the American economy, many professionals feel less confident about their future," Mahaffie says. "Associations have the challenge of helping members reassert that confidence and find new value in their association relationships."

While he believes this may call for new strategies in member retention and demand a new emphasis on maintaining relationships, he thinks that current hard times have an upside: 'At a time of lowered expectations in the marketplace for many professionals, associations can build strong relationships and loyalty with good people who will be their future leaders when times improve."

3. YOUR ASSOCIATION IS SHAPED BY GLOBAL EVENTS AND TRENDS. Association executives who don't have an eye out for global change will likely be surprised. "Changes in the world can reshape our domestic agendas," Mahaffie says. "Worldwide competition can reshape our association's membership. We have to globalize our thinking."

Jarratt and Mahaffie give the example of the trend for many IT jobs to go offshore. This means that they are no longer available to U.S. workers and that a trade association's members may have increasing numbers of offshore commitments and concerns. "Are you prepared to work with different cultures and languages?" they ask.

4. YOUR MEMBERS WILL LIVE LONGER LIVES-AND WANT TO WORK LONGER. Jarratt and Mahaffie cite the Employee Benefits Research Institute's "2002 Retirement Confidence Survey" in which 66 percent of workers surveyed say they plan to work after retirement. In 2002, about 24 percent of retired people worked for pay.

For associations that credential members, Mahaffie offers this advice: Anticipate that your older members will want to maintain their credentials at least into their 70s. He encourages associations to consider filling slots, either as part-time staff or as volunteers, with some of the "post-retirement generation" of baby boomers who will want to continue working.

Customizing a Scan Team

Michelle I. Mason

For 20 years, the association community has relied on the ASAE Foundation to identify trends and issues that may impact the association community. A series of publications, including the 2001 publication Exploring the Future: Seven Strategic Conversations that Could Transform Your Association, have provided topics for association leadership conversations about strategic issues.

As association management professionals read and thought about the issues identified in previous scans, they began looking for tools to help them translate the concepts into action. With the leadership of Mark J. Golden, CAE, executive director, National Court Reporters Association and 2002-2003 chair, ASAE Foundation Environmental Scan Task Force, the foundation set a goal of bridging the gap between the theory of the scan and the action of the plan.

Realizing that a new model was required and two distinct areas of expertise were to be addressed, the foundation proposed a customized approach in the form of a partnership for the purposes of this project. Leading Futurists LLC, specifically Jennifer Jarratt and John B. Mahaffie, were retained to focus on trend and conceptual aspects; Jim Dalton, CAE, of Strategic Counsel was retained to design a model to integrate the concepts into the strategy making process.

Time and resources are major factors in environmental scanning. However, the foundation experienced a more complicated challenge with the new scan-translation and application of content. The following formula was used to creatively deliver a product to address the emerging needs of members:

1. THE RIGHT PEOPLE. The foundation selected people with the particular skills and experiences that met its needs. It selected futurists to focus primarily on building on previous scan work and identifying emerging issues. A strategist was selected to develop a model to help executives link the trends into the strategy making process.

2. TWO APPROACHES--ONE GOAL. The futurists and strategist outlined an approach to their section of the project. The team submitted one proposal that addressed the overall project goals. Each person brought a distinct view and work ethic to the project. Clarity and focus were critical to understanding whether or not the team could function as a unit.

3. ONE POINT OF CONTACT. A team leader was identified to represent the group. It was important for this person to keep the flow of communication open, maintain synergy, arrange team meetings, and address questions or inquires.

4. A COHESIVE UNIT. Periodically the foundation would draw on the knowledge of the scan partner depending on the subject matter. Briefings, focus groups, and special requests were convened around the trend issues, strategy making, or both. Most of the time the partners presented as a team to help members visually understand the linkage between the trends and the strategy process.

5. THE RESULTS. The outcome is an environmental scan field book written by three authors that addresses three different issues: emerging trends, how to scan, and a strategy development model. The new field book, From Scan to Plan: Integrating Trends into the Strategy Making Process, will be released at ASAE Hawai'i 2003.

Michelle L Mason, CAE, is vice president of research programs at the ASAE Foundation. E-mail: [e-mail].

Margo Vanover Porter is a freelance writer based in Locust Grove, Virginia. E-mail: [e-mail]