Trade statistics as a road map to trade policy.

Rapidly increasing globalization makes the well-being of countries more and more dependent on their position in a network of international trade. To move towards a better place, national policy makers need to have a good "road map", whereby countries can have access to timely and accurate international trade statistics. These statistics are indispensable for Governments in developing effective trade policy, conducting trade negotiations, monitoring trade agreements and planning infrastructure, e.g., assessing the needs for new port facilities and roads. The business community also requires these statistics to conduct market research and forecasting, while the general public needs them to judge the effectiveness of governmental policies and formulate opinion on future course of actions.

The availability of trade statistics is not only important for all countries, but has special significance for developing countries and those in transition since they have to develop their export industries, find markets for their products and obtain information on where to get goods for consumption or as input in the production processes.

The compilation of trade statistics is the responsibility of national statistical authorities. However, the international community, and the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) in particular, play an important role. UNSD activities in this area focus on developing methodological guidelines, reformatting national trade data into international trade statistics databases and disseminating them, and providing training for country statisticians.

Developing methodological guidelines in recent years included revision of some basic concepts and definitions relevant to trade statistics. The updated International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Concepts and Definitions was adopted by the UN Statistical Commission and published in 1998. UNSD prepared and published a series of technical documents to assist countries in the implementation of these revisions. Its most recent methodological publication is the International Merchandise Trade Statistics: Compilers' Manual, to be published later in 2003, containing practical advice on how to compile data consistent with Concepts and Definitions. It will be most useful to developing countries and countries in transition, which are modernizing their statistical systems in accordance with internationally adopted standards.

In addition, UNSD provided free-of-charge Internet access to information on the national pratices of some 150 countries to be used in compiling their external trade statistics. With that facility, statisticians can compare what they do with the practices of their trading partners, as well as with UN recommendations.

UNSD data compilation and dissemination activities span from the collection and publication of statistics of total exports and imports to the maintenance of a database on trade in more than 5,000 different commodity groups. Its database on commodity trade--COMTRADE--contains annual trade statistics of some 120 countries from 1962, thus reflecting more than 90 per cent of world trade. UNSD is not simply storing data received from countries but also checks its internal consistency, and standardizes and disseminates those data in various forms. For example, it publishes the International Trade Statistics Yearbook, prepares customized data extractions in accordance with user specifications, and provides on-line access to Governments and international organizations. Recently, COMTRADE made the database accessible via the UNSD web site (http://unstats.un.org/unsd). This is a major improvement, as accessing data is now far more convenient and speedy. For example, in a few minutes users can find the value of exports from country A to country B, or the value of imports from country C into country D. Data are downloadable for further analysis and a visit to the web site should be the first step any market researcher or international trade analyst should undertake.

Among achievements to improve the quality of trade statistics, countries cited widening coverage, use of the Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System--a classification created by the World Customs Organization and recommended by the United Nations for use in trade statistics--and application of more advanced software for data processing 

Among the problems indicated were scarcity of resources, difficulty in finding additional sources of information, and lack of guidance on compilation of analytical indicators, such as indices of price changes of internationally traded goods. UNSD takes note of such problems and attempts to help countries to alleviate them. For instance, it will issue a technical report summarizing national practices in the compilation and dissemination of index numbers of external trade, has started work on a supplement to the Compilers Manual, and is planning to continue its training programme so that countries will be better prepared to produce timely and more reliable trade statistics that are needed for effective integration in the global economy.

Vladimir Markhonko is Chief of the International Trade Statistics Branch at the Statistics Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs.