Toward a new foreign policy.

Key Recommendations

* The United States has multiple interests throughout Asia, including points of mutual interest with Beijing. U.S. policy toward Taiwan must be balanced against these other interests.

* Washington must maintain exchanges between Chinese and U.S. armed forces and continue to support confidence-building measures by emphasizing issues of mutual interest.

* The Bush administration should make greater efforts to get talks going between Taiwan and China. The longer negotiations are delayed, the greater the risk of armed conflict.

During the past four years, the United States has understandably been focused on the problems of terrorism and Iraq. However, it is important that Washington start paying more attention to its relations with Asian countries in general and with China in particular. The political, economic, and security environment surrounding the Taiwan issue is changing, and Washington needs to adjust its approach accordingly. The United States has multiple interests throughout Asia, including points of mutual interest with Beijing. U.S. policy toward Taiwan must be balanced against these other.

The United States should expand its current military-to-military exchanges with China and broaden discussions on security issues of mutual concern. Both sides harbor lingering suspicions of the other, and such exchanges will improve communication and reduce uncertainty about the other side's intentions. It is important that Washington clarify that it is still committed to a one-China policy. Simultaneously, the United States should continue its efforts to discourage the European Union from lifting its ban on arms sales to China even though this creates friction with Europe and China. European arms sales to China would not represent a direct threat to the United States, but they would certainly improve China's ability to use force against Taiwan.

Washington should also continue to assist Taiwan in building its defense capabilities. An arms race in the Taiwan Straits is not desirable, but it is important that Taiwan have sufficient means to deter a Chinese attack. If there is a conflict, the longer Taiwan can defend itself, the more time the United States has to consider how it will respond. This means improving the survivability of Taiwan's command and communications systems as well as building its anti-submarine capabilities and air defense.

It should be acknowledged, however, that the United States pays a high political cost for helping Taiwan, and it is important that future arms sales to Taiwan be balanced against such costs. The arms package currently being considered by Taiwan is a good example of such a balance. If Taiwan's defense spending continues to decline in real terms, the United States should not be expected to compensate by increasing its commitment to Taiwan. As Ted Carpenter of the Cato Institute has suggested, Americans should not take Taiwan's security more seriously than do the Taiwanese. Under no circumstances should Washington abandon its current policy and make an explicit guarantee of military intervention in the event of a conflict. Such a move would guarantee Chinese hostility for decades and undo all the positive developments in U.S.-China relations.

Washington simply cannot wait for China and Taiwan to enter negotiations to finally resolve their differences. A negotiated settlement has always been the best option for the United States and is essential to ensuring that China is integrated into the international system as a peaceful power. This means that Beijing needs to talk with President Chen and the DPP rather than only with the blue parties. Even without U.S. intervention, any Chinese attack on Taiwan would be very costly, and it is in China's interest to find a peaceful solution. The longer Taiwan waits to enter into negotiations with China, the weaker its bargaining position will be and the greater the risk that China will lose patience and opt for a military solution. So it is also in the interests of all Taiwanese political parties to enter into talks with Beijing, the sooner the better.

Washington wields plenty of political capital with both Taipei and Beijing and should use it to coax these two governments into negotiations. The United States has a lot of potential leverage over the DPP; meanwhile, the KMT and PFP are already committed to talks with Beijing. Trade between Taiwan and the Chinese mainland is growing at double-digit rates, and nearly one million Taiwanese (about 4% of the island's citizens) now live and work on the mainland. This provides a very strong foundation on which to build some kind of political agreement, and Washington should press the two sides on this. U.S. economic ties and political cooperation with China could be used as a hook to persuade Beijing to show more flexibility regarding negotiations with Taiwan. Beijing is far more likely to engage in constructive dialogue with Taipei if it knows that it will be rewarded by better relations with the United States and other countries.

There is, of course, no guarantee that negotiations will result in a successful agreement, but the United States needs to push for dialogue and conflict resolution. The balance of power in the Taiwan Strait is changing, Taiwanese politics are changing, and Washington needs to take a proactive role in engaging the two sides or face the prospect of a war not of its choosing. The only alternative is to abandon the democratic government of Taiwan. The United States should not let itself be forced into making such a choice.

Thomas Bickford <[e-mail]> teaches at the University of Wisconsin at Oshkosh, and specializes in Chinese politics and Asian security issues.