Toward a new foreign policy.

It is true that President Bush has pledged to reduce deployed U.S. nuclear weapons. Last May, President Bush and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty, which should reduce each nation's nuclear arsenal to between 1,700 and 2,200 warheads, although the cuts do not have to take effect until the expiration date of the treaty: December 31, 2012. Moreover, there are minimal accounting and verification measures within the treaty. Besides granting 10 years to make the reductions, the treaty allows both sides to keep thousands of their withdrawn warheads in reserve rather than destroying them, and it gives either party the right to withdraw from the agreement on just 90 days notice.

The new arms accord also does nothing to secure or destroy Russia's massive stockpiles of nuclear weapons and materials. Shortly before Bush's inauguration, a bipartisan task force chaired by former Senate Majority Leader Howard Baker and former White House Counsel Lloyd Cutler reported that "the most urgent national security threat to the U.S. today is the danger that weapons of mass destruction or weaponsusable material in Russia could be stolen and sold to terrorists or hostile nation-states and used against American troops abroad or citizens at home." The task force recommended the development of a $3-billion-per-year, long-term plan to safeguard, destroy, or neutralize Russian nuclear materials. Total current funding for all nonproliferation programs is about $1.8 billion.

Even at current funding levels, major U.S. government nonproliferation programs have accomplished a tremendous amount, from financing the destruction of more than 4,400 Russian strategic nuclear warheads to orchestrating the airlift of nearly 600 kilograms of poorly guarded, highly enriched uranium from Kazakhstan in 1994. But much more can and should be done.

The potential benefits of U.S.-Russian nuclear reductions are overshadowed by the risks posed from the administration's nuclear plans, which include dramatically expanding the scenarios in which U.S. nuclear weapons might be used, producing a new generation of more usable nuclear weapons systems, and resuming nuclear weapons testing. How likely are countries like Iran, North Korea, Syria, Libya, Russia, and China--all of which have been targeted in Bush's nuclear plan--to heed the administration's calls to reduce or renounce their own nuclear arsenals in the face of this new threat from the United States? Given Washington's multibillion-dollar Star Wars plan and knowing that they may be targeted by a new generation of U.S. nukes, aren't such countries more likely to beef up their nuclear stockpiles? Unfortunately, U.S. arms trade and military assistance policy also deters them from undertaking any serious nuclear disarmament. For example, rather than pressing new nuclear nations like India, Pakistan, and Israel to give up their nuclear weapons, Washington has been rewarding these states with arms sales and military assistance.

The continued pursuit of a costly missile defense system will have far-reaching consequences for the future of arms control and the goal of nuclear abolition. It will also take precious time, money, and energy from nonproliferation and diplomatic efforts, which have proven to be far more productive in reducing the threat posed by nuclear weapons.

A modest missile defense program of research, in the range of a few hundred million dollars per year and focused on improving the performance of a medium-range defensive shield to replace the current Patriot system, is justified as a way to limit the potential damage posed by the use (or threat of use) of ballistic missiles. Pentagon test director Thomas Christie rightly noted: "I recognize and agree, in principle, with the desire to field new capabilities as soon as possible, but that desire should be tempered with the responsibility to ensure that the weapons will not put Americans at risk."

Ultimately the U.S. and other nuclear powers should strive for a nuclear-weapons-free world by living up to their commitments, signed 30 years ago under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, "to reduce and eventually eliminate their vast arsenals of nuclear weaponry." The abolition of nuclear weapons is the only reasonable safeguard against the threat of annihilation. The U.S. must lead the way toward this goal.

Key Recommendations

* Instead of focusing primarily on military and technical means to deal with the threat of weapons of mass destruction, the Bush administration should expand and increase funding for nonproliferation programs.

* The U.S. should redouble its diplomatic efforts to bargain away nascent nuclear weapons programs in North Korea, Iran, Pakistan, and India.

* The ultimate goal of U.S. nuclear strategy should be the abolition of nuclear weapons.