Toward a New Foreign Policy.

Key Recommendations

* Instead of pursuing a costly, unworkable missile defense program, the U.S. should pursue deep reductions in U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals without preconditions.

* Washington should redouble its diplomatic efforts to cap--and ultimately eliminate--nascent nuclear weapons programs in North Korea, Iran and Iraq.

* The U.S. must lead the way in reducing, and finally eliminating, the world's bloated nuclear arsenals by living up to commitments it signed 30 years ago in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

While President Bush and his advisers are trying to gather international support for their dubious and vague missile defense proposal, they're squandering valuable time that could be used to promote cooperative measures for the reduction of both U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals. A series of provocative actions toward Russia--from the expansion of NATO to references to Russia as a "top proliferator" of ballistic missile technology to persistent statements about the U.S. withdrawing from the ABM Treaty--has stalled momentum toward U.S.-Russian nuclear weapons reductions.

President Bush has tied deployment of a missile defense system to deep reductions in the U.S. nuclear arsenal in an attempt to allay Russian and international opposition. Bush has also hinted at a sort of "grand compromise" to gain Russia's approval for amending the ABM Treaty to allow for a missile defense system. The proposed package deal could include military aid, joint antimissile exercises, and arms purchases for Moscow. But the offer seems more salesmanship than substance, with no genuine attempt to ease Russia's fundamental concerns. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that U.S. violation of the ABM Treaty would force Russia to augment its nuclear capability by mounting multiple warheads on its missiles. At the same time, Putin suggested that both the START I and START II treaties would be negated by the U.S. abrogating the ABM Treaty. The termination of these treaties would also eliminate verification and inspection requirements and allow Russia to hide its nuclear capabilities.

Taking innovative steps to get nuclear reductions back on track should be the top priority of U.S. policymakers, and such reductions should not be tied to a U.S. missile defense system. Nuclear arms reductions between the U.S. and Russia have been stalled since the signing of the START II Treaty in 1993. The treaty, which would reduce each nation's nuclear arsenals to 3,500, has yet to be ratified by the U.S. Senate. President Putin has suggested cutting even further, to 1,000 or 1,500 nukes each, while President Bush has voiced a similar position but avoided an exact number.

Additionally, instead of cutting more than $72 million in funds intended to help safeguard and dispose of Russian nuclear material, President Bush should be showing his commitment to nonproliferation by increasing the budget for these activities. A bipartisan commission issued a report in January calling the risk of theft of Russian nuclear materials "the most urgent unmet national security threat" facing the U.S. and urged sharp increases in spending for the Russian programs. Getting U.S.-Russian nuclear reductions back on track and supporting multilateral efforts toward nuclear abolition would also give the U.S. much greater credibility in promoting wide-ranging security discussions between India and Pakistan aimed at capping and eventually eliminating their nascent nuclear programs.

As for North Korea, Iran, or Iraq, there are other methods of dealing with the threat of a ballistic missile attack from these nations that would be far less costly and far more effective than building a multibillion-dollar missile shield. But instead of picking up where the Clinton administration left off in talks with Pyongyang, Bush started his term by delaying further negotiations until his administration could conduct a comprehensive review of U.S. policy toward North Korea. As Spurgeon Keeny, president of the Arms Control Association, notes, Bush's actions (or lack thereof) are "widely perceived internationally as intended to preserve, and even enhance, the North Korean ballistic missile threat so that it can serve as the rationale for early deployment of a national missile defense." Initial Bush administration efforts to restart the talks with North Korea aroused skepticism when new demands were laid on Pyongyang in the area of conventional force reductions without indicating when or whether Washington would meet its original obligations under the framework agreement. If implemented as planned, the framework agreement could scale back and eventually eliminate Pyongyang's nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs as part of an overall improvement in U.S.-North Korean economic and political relations. President Bush should fulfill America's long-overdue commitments under the nuclear framework agreement with North Korea and should continue to support South Korea's efforts at cooperation and reconciliation with North Korea. Ultimately the U.S. and other nuclear powers should strive for a nuclear-weapons-free world by living up to their commitments, signed 30 years ago, under Article VI of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) "to reduce and eventually eliminate their vast arsenals of nuclear weaponry." On May 20, 2000, at the contusion of the sixth review of the NPT, the U.S. and 186 other countries came to a global consensus on nuclear disarmament, declaring it the "only absolute guarantee against the use or threat of use of nuclear weapons." The U.S. must lead the way toward this goal.

The continued pursuit of missile defense will have far-reaching consequences for the future of arms control and the goal of nuclear abolition. It will create a false sense of security for Americans and increase the threat of nuclear war for the world. A modest missile defense program of research, in the range of a few hundred million dollars per year focused on primarily improving the performance of a medium-range defensive shield to replace the current Patriot system, is justified as a way to limit the potential damage posed by the use (or threat of use) of medium-range missiles. But the main focus of Washington's energy and resources should be on preventive measures, which axe far more effective at reducing the threat of nuclear war than any pie-in-the-sky defensive schemes.

William D. Hartung is a Senior Research Fellow at the World Policy Institute at the New School for Social Research. He also serves as the Director of the Institute Arms Trade Resource Center, where Michelle Ciarrocca is a research associate.