Toward a New Foreign Policy.

First, U.S. foreign policy in the environmental sector in Central Asia would be better served by deepening coordination with other donors. This has been especially difficult, since each donor organization contracts out its individual projects. As a result, the contractors are more concerned about demonstrating their own success--to ensure future funding--than about seeking a cooperative solution that might improve the overall efficacy of their efforts. Besides working more closely with the other donors, AID needs to improve coordination among its own subcontractors. Although all the respective contractors meet on a regular basis in Almaty, Kazakhstan, to report on the status of their projects, there is a greater need to look at how the different programs interact with each other.

Second, U.S. foreign policy in the Aral Sea Basin has largely concentrated its efforts on water and energy sectors as part of its broader Central Asia agenda to foster regional cooperation and stability. Specifically, AID has encouraged the Syr Darya states to develop new interstate agreements in which they will exchange water for energy resources. Yet, few of the donor efforts have aimed their programs at the main cause of the desiccation of the Aral Sea--namely, cotton monoculture. Due to the difficulty in breaking down entrenched interests in the cotton sector, U.S. foreign policy has shied away from including agricultural reform in its suggestions for solving the Aral Sea problem.

Yet, to even begin to effectively mitigate the Aral Sea crisis, the Central Asian states need to replace cotton with less-water-intensive crops. U.S. foreign policy should aim to help them do so by providing assistance to farms where the soil can no longer support cotton cultivation. In the long term, this would be the most efficient strategy to rectify seventy years of disregard for the environment. However, in the short term, this solution might be politically costly, since Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan both rely upon the sale of cotton for foreign revenue. Since the Central Asian states will need to develop other sources of export revenue, U.S. foreign policy should be prepared to work with Central Asian policymakers over an extended period. One immediate option would be to switch to alternative crops in areas where cotton growing is least efficient.

Third, U.S. foreign policy should redirect its efforts toward strengthening civil society by funding local NGOs to continue their work on water and environmental issues. Any reform in the water or agricultural sectors will be dependent upon local actors complying with decisions from the national level. Since the state farms and local NGOs are often left out of the decisionmaking process at the national and interstate levels, efforts should be made to give them a broader role in reforming patterns of water use. One way to do this is to provide additional funding to help local NGOs to forge links with their government and local communities. U.S. foreign policy efforts should also encourage local NGOs to devise programs in which local actors can begin to play a direct role in developing concrete solutions to immediate problems in the disaster zone. AID has tried to support farmers at the local level by creating water user associations in Uzbekistan. The overall success of this, however, has been limited due to resistance at the national level. Although the local farmers may be more receptive to water reform, the challenge remains for U.S. foreign policy to create bridges between water institutions at the local, national, and interstate levels.

U.S. foreign policy should not give preference to regional stability or economic reform over civil society and democracy building efforts. Both the long-term economic stability of the region and effective energy development depend upon a civil society that views itself as citizens rather than as subjects when interacting with government. The development of sustainable economies, moreover, demands an active role for NGOs and local communities. Lending support to NGOs and grassroots movements is necessary to counter top-down solutions that have characterized the Soviet system of centralized economic decisionmaking. An empowered civil society can ensure that economic solutions, especially regarding energy development, are tailored to meet local needs and protect the environment from unregulated energy exploration. Yet, civil society cannot be built overnight, and thus Washington should continue to pay attention to the critical connection between political and economic reform. In sum, U.S. foreign policy needs to be committed for the long term and must extend its current support to NGO efforts in order to strengthen civil society and protect the environment in Central Asia.

Key Recommendations

* U.S. foreign policy needs to deepen coordination both with other donor organizations and among its own contractors in Central Asia.

* U.S. foreign policy needs to direct its efforts toward the agricultural sector in order to improve the environmental situation in the Aral Sea Basin.

* Enhancing civil society will greatly help to mitigate the Aral Sea crisis.

Erika Weinthal is an assistant professor at Tel Aviv University.