Tory budget, whig reasoning.

THE CONSENSUS of pundits for a month now has been that President Bush outfoxed Congress in the first stages of the budget process. Time will tell whether he hasn't also outfoxed himself.

His cunning became evident to its victims, the Democrats, the day after his budget message the first week of February. Bush purred soothingly, the Democrats purred back. No statist boats rocked. When Congress came to examine the numbers, however, it grew alarmed. The Bush budget included a $136-billion black box, a bundle of programs for which total spending was projected to hold steady, with no upward adjustments for inflation. Where the cutbacks were to come from was left to the Democrats. "Mr.Bush chose to give us only the good news," complained House Budget Committee Chairman Leon Panetta. "He has left it for Congress to give the American people the bad news."

The Democrats' first response was to threaten to wash their hands of the whole mess, and let GrammRudman-Hollings cuts come into effect-the thinking being that the Administration would not want to see defense spending crippled. But surely Congress is even less willing to take the blame for across-the-board cuts in social programs. Given Michael Dukakis's unfortunate experience in the tank, does Congress also want to be responsible for weakening America?

The problem Bush's masterminds seem not to have noticed is that, though they may win the debate, it will still be a debate cast in Democratic terms-that is, aggregate spending totals. The presumption remains that civilization advances through the expenditure of public funds; Republicans' only virtue is to spend them more prudently. Instead of a clash of philosophies, we have a squabble of accountants. It was noted, for instance, that the Bush budget cuts Aid to Families with Dependent Children from $10.8 billion to $9.6 billion. Since everyone ftom Bill Moyers to sanity now recognizes that AFDC was responsible for destroying the black urban family, why are there any billions going into it at all? Small amounts of new spending, slipped in here and there to fulfill campaign promises, will enter the statute books and slumber, like seven-year locusts, until they become big spending.

The Bush budget contains a number of intellectual departures-child-care tax credits, enterprise zones. How much more satisfying if these had been symbols of the new Administration, instead of details.