Today Y2K, Tomorrow...

THE Monday-morning Y2K quarterbacks wasted little time last week in questioning the enormous investment by business and government in fixing the long-awaited computer bug. Some went so far as to claim that the calendar-year glitch was a minor software issue that never threatened to paralyze world commerce -- as the early hype had suggested

The criticism was not surprising. After all, nothing really went wrong -- not only in the United States, where an estimated $100 billion was forked over to fix the problem, but in nations all over the globe where far less was spent. CEOs and government officials alike were left wondering whether the huge investment was truly justified. Or, more to the point, whether the computers stayed on because they were fixed or because the problem had been exaggerated.

There is no easy answer to that question. Given how Americans are prone to throw money at a problem in the hopes that enough of it will stick, it's a fair bet there was some over-spending. How much? One federal official broadly put the figure at about 10 percent of the total outlay, but that's clearly a guess.

Overall, prudence ruled the day. Businesses that had the most to lose -- mainly financial institutions, utilities and major corporations -- spent the most, while those with the least at stake -- mainly smaller businesses -- spent the least. At issue was not only the prospect of malfunctioning computers, but liability questions over the way in which companies made their Y2K preparations. In the end, there was little choice but to spend big bucks, even at the risk of being second-guessed.

Certainly, the money did not go down the drain. Many companies took the opportunity to overhaul their antiquated computer systems (arguably a factor in the nation's stepped-up economic activity in the last half of 1999). Plus, senior executives who normally steer clear of their computer departments felt compelled to learn more about how their systems function -- information that will serve them well in the future. On a broader scale, computer experts from around the globe had the chance to share information, perhaps as never before.

Even so, there is something troubling about the Y2K fallout. It's not the question of overspending but rather of not knowing. For all the slickness in this amazing information age, it's apparent that even the experts aren't sure how all the puzzle parts fit -- that,software writing remains a fundamentally crude process that's subject to unending glitches.

That's readily apparent to any casual computer user when his or machine freezes up -- and then, upon rebooting, appears to be back to normal. A computer technician might pass it off as a software glitch, but is it a big glitch or a small glitch? Might it result in further problems in another six months?

The Y2K episode had been predetermined to occur at a specific time, thus allowing years of preparation. But a real crisis typically occurs out of the blue, with little opportunity to respond. Given the increased interconnection of the world's computer networks -- through e-mail, among other means -- the real message of this glitch-free New Year's must center on the future unknowable vulnerabilities that, next time around, might not be so easy to fix.