Tinseltown gleams over big box office success for 1992.

Holiday surge makes this third-best year on record

Despite so-so box office results from holiday star vehicles "Hoffa," "Toys" and "Leap of Faith," Hollywood appears headed for a near-record holiday box office leading to a $4.9 billion 1992 gross.

Analysts and box office tabulators said that 1992 should beat 1991's $4.8 billion haul and could eclipse 1991's holiday season -- Thanksgiving to New Year's -- figures.

John Krier, president of Exhibitor Relations Co., said going into the New Year's weekend, the industry was $75 million ahead of 1991's pre-New Year's figure. Art Murphy, box office analyst for Daily Variety, predicted the industry would finish at close to $4.9 billion, making it the third-best year behind the $5 billion takes of 1989 and 1990.

The 1992 Christmas numbers belie the relatively weak grosses being generated by the films released in the last three weeks. None has been able to attract a large audience despite featuring some of the biggest box office stars.

Jack Nicholson as Jimmy Hoffa, Robin Williams in "Toys" and Steve Martin's "Leap of Faith" have done mediocre business while Mel Gibson in "Forever Young" has fared slightly better.

Film buyers for the major exhibitors said "Toys" was too abstract while mixed reviews may have clipped "Hoffa's" grosses. They say that none of these films was an outright turkey.

Christmas week was 9 percent below 1991 partially because the new films were spotty but primarily because Christmas fell on a Friday compared to a Wednesday the prior year, said Murphy.

The season has been carried by earlier releases, especially "Aladdin," "A Few Good Men" and "Home Alone 2." There were no major releases planned for New Year's weekend although several limited release movies such as "Scent of a Woman," "Damage" and "The Crying Game" were doing well. Holiday box score (in millions)

Home Alone 2 (Fox)                 $125
Dracula (Columbia)                 $ 81.1
Aladdin (Disney)                   $ 80.4
The Bodyguard (Warner)             $ 72.2
A Few Good Men (Columbia)          $ 54

"We will be ahead of 1991 by a couple of percentage points. The Christmas season started out exceptionally strong but weather was a small detrimental factor," said Jeffrey Logsdon, managing director at Seidler Amdec, a Los Angeles based securities firm. "For having less movies this year, the holiday season is ending up pretty healthy."

There were 11 holiday films released in 1992 compared to 13 a year before.

Logsdon said Warner Bros. would end the year as the market leader with a 19 percent share. That is unusually high, due in part to studios like Orion Pictures and Metro-Goldwyn Mayer Inc. being non-factors this year.

Analysts anointed Disney the box office profit king while looking askance at Paramount Pictures and Universal Studios, each of which had just one holiday film.

Alan Gould, entertainment analyst at Dean Witter Reynolds, projected earnings in Disney's fiscal first quarter, ended Dec. 31, should top $200 million compared to $167 million in 1991 and $92 million in 1990. Earlier in the year Wall Streeters thought it would be impossible for Disney to top 1991's holiday profits, Gould said.

He projected "Aladdin" would finish its run with a gross of between $160 million and $175 million. The film finished Christmas week with an $80.4 million box office take.

Disney's video business, with "Beauty and the Beast" and "Sister Act" as its latest releases, is playing a major part in Disney's profit results. Those two films will generate around 20 million units video sales this quarter.

"Leap of Faith's" disappointing performance caused Gould to lower his projection for Paramount's earnings from 5 cents a share to breakeven. Eddie Murphy's "The Distinguished Gentleman" isn't living up to expectations for Disney's Hollywood Pictures, causing Gould to be concerned that Paramount's "Beverly Hills Cop 3" with Murphy next summer could come up short.

Southern California exhibitors have been surprised at the vibrancy of the box office. Despite the recession, the movie business has been stellar, they said. Greg Rutkowski, vice president of Western operations for AMC Theaters, estimated the holiday season to be ahead by 15 percent over 1991's holiday period. He credited a good mix of films and pent-up demand.

The chain opened a new 16-theater complex in downtown Long Beach in mid-December, drawing 15,000 moviegoers its first week. In Montebello, AMC opened a 10-screen theater in mid-November and has been averaging 20,000 weekly. During Christmas week Montebello grossed $71,000, outdoing more established venues in the AMC circuit.

Rutkowski said there are enough good films to keep attendance up through January and February when films like "Used People," "Chaplin" and "Scent of a Woman" open to wide release. He predicted films like "Aladdin" and "A Few Good Men" could play into the late spring, getting boosts from the Academy Awards in March.