Timing is everything in economic plumbing.

First, I have three words of advice for speculators, then three words for northerners in general, and finally, three words for politicians If you are a speculator, buy metal stocks. Better yet, buy them last year. Experts are predicting a long boom in mining.

Three words say it all: population, income, intensity. Rising population is increasing the demand for metals. Rising income in the developing world is increasing the per-person demand for metals. And rising metal intensity in the less developed countries means more of those rising incomes will be spent on products that use metals.

This scenario should be good news for Northern Ontario, but in fact it will have only a small direct effect. Periodic shortages will drive up prices. Stock owners will make money. More mines will come on line, producing more cheaply from even lower grade ores, and prices will return to the long-run downward trend.

Most stock owners are not in Northern Ontario, so the worldwide boom in metal production won't affect northerners much. Some prospectors will get lucky. Exploration companies should do very well. Mining employment won't rise much, but it may stabilize for a while. That's good news because wages from mines and smelters help pay the northern butcher, baker and city garbage collector.

For northerners who aren't speculators I have three different words: mining, supply and service. Buy mining supply and service companies. Start mining supply and service companies. Join mining supply and service companies.

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As demand expands, mining operations around the world will need more services and equipment. Technology and skill are replacing labour, so demand for these inputs will grow faster than mineral production. Supply and service companies should grow faster than mining companies on average.

They should also grow more steadily. Technology and services developed for mining can provide the springboard for getting into other, more stable markets.

This part of the scenario is very good for Northern Ontario. The region has a worldwide reputation. If you tell a mine manager in Chile that you supply pink thingamajigs to a mine in Sudbury, you will probably be asked to demonstrate how they work. Getting into the market is easier from Northern Ontario.

Selling your business will be easier too. A lot of small companies with good products or specialized services will be gobbled up by the big players. Selling out may not be good for the local economy, but it can be very good for business owners.

The mining boom will create a lot of jobs in the mining supply and service sector. Those jobs could be in Northern Ontario. So how can Northern Ontario's politicians make sure they are in Northern Ontario?

The fist word is research. The international evidence is clear. Growth depends on world-class research facilities.

Making Northern Ontario the world leader in research for mining and the industries that supply mining has to be the first funding priority for politicians.

The second word is pipelines.

Research is the foundation, but it takes a lot of plumbing to get ideas to market. Bud Gilchrist works with the Industrial Research Assistance Program (IRAP), one of the most successful industry support programs in the country. Bud knows about getting products to market and he claims we actually spend too much on research. He says we should focus on product development and commercialization.

Bud is pointing in the right direction, even though he is wrong about where the starting line is. We need more research to get a bigger share of the growing supply and service industry, but research is not enough by itself.

Studies from Britain, Australia, Europe, and the U.S. all tell us that the hard work begins after we build our International Institute for Mining Research and Technology. We need to get a lot better at turning knowledge into know-how, and know-how into money.

And when Bud retires in March we will have one less pipeline to get leading technologies to local companies.

The third word for the politicians is hurry.

To ride the mining boom up, we have to get the plumbing in place now. My advice for speculators may be too late for the first run-up in stock prices. We still have time to catch the supply boom.

Dr. David Robinson, PhD, is an associate professor of economics at Laurentian University, and is with the Institute for Northern Research and Development. ([e-mail])