Time to start rebuilding: is the worst over for Zimbabwe? Will Africa and the rest of the world pour in the assistance the country needs to get back on its economic feet or will sceptics prevail? Tom Nevin discusses.

"It took Zimbabwe 12 years to end up in this situation. It will perhaps take half a dozen to get out. But it will, and we'll be there."

This sentiment by David Lenigas, chairman of Lonrho, reflects much of the optimism being voiced by industrialists, business people, financiers and investors, farmers and Joe Citizen.

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"If anyone knows how to operate in Zimbabwe, Lonrho does," says Lenigas. "We have the largest printing company in the market, we distribute mobile phones and have a chemical producer, as well as the internet payment system Pay-net. The world wants Zimbabwe to recover quickly, but you have 80% unemployment and you need to mobilise those masses back to work.

"The key thing is that the infrastructure--phones, roads, airports, the nuts and bolts that make an economy--is already there. In the next two to three years LonZim will be the biggest conglomerate in the country."

On the other hand there are as many who are not quite as starry-eyed and some so negative they reckon it will take the country half a century to turn the corner, and insist it will never lose its scars. Others go as far as to suggest that the country is, like many others, on a treadmill and could succumb to another attack of bad governance. Such cynics, who have watched Zimbabwe's decade-long disintegration, gaze into a cloudier crystal ball.

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"If you are thinking of taking your summer holiday abroad this year and have not yet alighted upon a suitable destination, then why not bear Zimbabwe in mind?" suggests Rod Liddle writing in London's Spectator magazine. "It looks increasingly likely that Robert Mugabe will not be president for very much longer. Instead they'll have someone else in charge. The general rule for African countries is that when some homicidal and incompetent tyrant is at last somehow overthrown, the civilised world breathes a sigh of relief and the new regime is, for a while, garlanded in roses.

"And then, after a bit, everybody begins to realise that the new boss is just as bad--if not actually many times worse--than the old boss. Within a short while - it can vary from between three or four months to three or four years--the phrase 'basket case' is current again and Western governments are shaking their heads and thinking about sanctions."

But there is a world of difference between Lenigas and Liddle. The former is a hard-nosed businessman who knows Africa well and is prepared to put his money where his confidence is; the latter is a controversial UK journalist spinning out yet another African 'basket case' yarn from thousands of miles away. Whatever happens in Zimbabwe will make not a jot of difference to his life. Nevertheless, both have the power to influence the thoughts of large numbers of people.

Who is right?

As always, the answer lies somewhere in the grey zones. Much depends on the will of the global community and how deeply they will dig into their pockets.

Window of opportunity

As the Zimbabwe election parody played out in the agonisingly slow presidential vote count, investors who had been reaching for their chequebooks when it looked as if Zanu-PF had lost its parliamentary majority and that Morgan Tsvangirai had wrested the presidency from Robert Mugabe, put them away again.

Although Mugabe has troops and police thick on the ground throughout the country to deal with civil unrest that might arise if the election results are disputed, Zimbabwe may technically be a country at peace.

It is, however, suffering from extraordinary levels of political instability, economic dislocation and social upheaval, similar to a war-torn country. This suggests to researchers Todd Moss and Patrick Stewart that once Zimbabwe has an acceptable political leadership, donors may need to apply post-conflict recovery strategies.

"Given the country's fragility and the narrow window of opportunity a post-Mugabe transition will provide, the US and the donor community should begin planning for such a response immediately," note the research fellows at the Centre for Global Development in a paper: The Day After Comrade Bob: Applying Post-Conflict Recovery Lessons to Zimbabwe.

It would be important to let Zimbabweans know they have not been forgotten and that the world stands ready to help once Mugabe is gone and its next government is sufficiently distanced from Mugabe and his cronies.

"As in post-conflict situations, Mugabe's departure will create a brief'golden hour', a crucial window of opportunity to help set Zimbabwe on the right path to sustainable peace and recovery," say the researchers. "Once this window closes the odds of making a difference will become much longer. Since the day after the fall of the dictator could be too late, the international community should start contingency planning now."

All over for Mugabe?

Short of a coup by Zanu-PF appointed military heads, there seems little doubt that it's all over for Mugabe. The MDC cemented its win in the parliamentary election by reuniting with its breakaway faction led by Arthur Mutambara. Even if the incumbent wins a presidential run-off, he would be head of state presiding over an opposition-led parliament, and all the reunified MDC would have to do is call for a vote of no confidence and Mugabe would be stripped of the presidency. Should that happen, he could always call in his military allies, dispense with parliament and rule by decree.

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If he chooses to step down gracefully, what would he do after he moves out of State House to make way for President Tsvangirai?

The government in waiting says it will let Mugabe live out his days in dignity, comfort and peace. Should the former leader prefer a foreign retirement his options might be limited. So far, only Malaysia has said openly that he would be welcomed as a permanent guest there. The invitation was extended recently by former Malaysian prime minister Mahathir Mohamad. No other country has issued a public invitation, but it's possible that behind-the-scenes discussions are going on. The future of Zimbabwe could go either way and much depends on how Mugabe relinquishes his grip on power, as when he does so. But one thing is certain - the country will never be the same again, and Zimbabweans ponder a future under the MDC and President Morgan Richard Tsvangirai.

Visions differ sharply. About a third of Zimbabwe's apparent 10m people (apparent, because no one really knows how many remain after a 10-year Diaspora) are aged under 30. So one in three knows nothing other than life under Mugabe. Many, however, are well educated through one of the positive remnants of Mugabe's early rule and they will be sorely needed in the country's reconstruction, as will be those who can be coaxed into returning from their forced exile around the globe.

But to most, any change in Zimbabwe's leadership will be an improvement.

RELATED ARTICLE: Exhibition

Zimbabwe trade fair "a glorified flea market"

A sad measure of Zimbabwe's fall from economic grace and its mounting commercial isolation was the country's international trade fair traditionally staged in the second city of Bulawayo. The lack of local and international exhibitors has turned the once bustling showpiece into "a glorified flea market" commented one visitor quoted by the Association of Zimbabwe Journalists newsletter.

"This year's Zimbabwe International Trade Fair (ZITF) lived up to that description. Most of the exhibitors were government parastatals and ministries and small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs) which were sponsored by banks," writes journalist Ian Nhuka in the publication. "The patronage was so pathetic that even the Ministry of Information and Publicity, which has a built-up pavilion at the ZITF Exhibition Centre did not exhibit, and neither did regular participant and government parastatal, Cold Storage Company. Their pavilions were locked and are overgrown with tall grass."

The agricultural show, a major component of the ZITF, graphically demonstrated the fair's collapse. According to the newsletter the small livestock section was poorly subscribed with only a few rabbits and chickens on display. Just 50 cattle were on display in the livestock section, with the Zimbabwe Prison Service the single biggest exhibitor with twelve steers.

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"Before the chaotic land grab campaign launched in 2000," says Nhuka, "the Bulawayo agricultural show used to be a key component of the ZITF, with mainly white commercial farmers showcasing their cattle, sheep, goats, chickens and various crops. But this year, there were no sheep or goats at all. Livestock pens were virtually empty."

Dumisani Nyoni, head of the Agricultural Research and Extension Services in Matabeleland North acknowledged that fewer farmers exhibited at the show. "Whites used to take part, but they are no longer on the farms now. It is not a problem, our farmers will take their place with time," he said.

European and American exhibitors ignored the show in accordance with the imposition of targeted sanctions on President Mugabe's government in 2002 in protest against human rights abuses. Other notable stay-aways were Chinese companies while those from Pakistan and Bangladesh pulled out at the eleventh hour without explanation. There was no representation from Botswana.