Thinking, strategizing offensively: an analysis of the four factors involved in selective judgment.

Coaches can't hit the curve ball, make the double play, catch a fly ball, or do any of the other physical things that can affect a baseball game. But they can - and must - make the kind of decisions that will win games.

Unlike football and basketball strategy, which is often predicated on the clock, baseball strategy pays little heed to the time factor. It is actually based on the abilities of the players involved, the situation of the game at the moment, and the percentages.

It is a distinct mental process involving a thorough knowledge of the game, logic, and percentages. The coach {strategist) must consider four factors in the following order of importance: #1, runs; #2, inning; #3, outs; and #4, batting order.

Once all the basic factors are in agreement with the particular strategy, the coach can signal in the strategy to the players.

#1, Runs

When a team has a lead, it can afford to become more aggressive, take some chances. And if it is a big lead, the coach doesn't have to worry too much about "rubbing it in."

Younger players do not have the emotional stability to turn it on and turn it off at will. They should be allowed to keep playing their game.

In fact, the coach should discourage any tendency to ease up after building a comfortable lead. If the opponents ever start catching up, it may not be easy for the laid-back team to resume their aggressiveness. Result: panic followed by defeat.

Remember, in amateur ball, there are no million-dollar relief pitchers who can come in and snuff out a rally. That's a pretty good reason for not letting up on a team that appears beaten.

When a team is trailing, it should become more conservative - save its remaining outs. One of the most common mistakes on offense is becoming aggressive in situations where outs are more important than extra bases.

Example: A runner getting thrown out trying to take an extra base with his team trailing by three runs late in the game.

Moral: You should be playing conservatively in such situations, hoping to get the tying run on base and then running aggressively.

Whenever you fall behind by several runs in the first couple of innings, stick to your normal game plan. Continue to play aggressively - if you happen to be that kind of team.

Since a lot of outs remain in the game, you don't have to try to get them all back at one time.

Catch-up baseball depends a lot on how the game is progressing and how many runs are being scored. It also depends on the kind of offensive ability you have. It doesn't make much sense to play for a big inning if you're not the kind of team that can score a lot of runs quickly.

The prolificity of runs can also have an influence on your offensive strategy. For example, if you are three runs behind in the sixth inning with the score, 3-0, it is obvious that nobody is scoring much and it may be necessary to play more aggressively.

If, however, you are behind by three runs with the score, 18-15, you don't have to be gambling outs in trying to scratch out runs. The hits are flying all around.

#2, Innings

Early innings. Some coaches delight in scratching for a run in the first inning or two, and that may be all right if their talent is best suited for "one-run-at-a-time baseball." (You have to have outstanding pitching and defense to play that kind of baseball.}

In most games, a three- or four-run inning will have a major impact on the game. According to statistics, about half the winning teams in major -league ball will score more runs in one inning than the losing teams will score in the entire game. It thus makes sense to play for the big inning whenever possible.

This is especially true early in the game when the starting pitcher may not yet be in his groove and both teams are playing conservatively in the hope of launching a big inning.

Teams that bunt in the first inning to get a run may be robbing themselves of the big inning they may have had and giving the opposing starter a chance to settle down with only one run against him.

Fact: More runs are scored in the first inning than in any other inning of the average ballgame, so that many teams will be wasting a potentially big first inning by playing for one run.

To quote from the scriptures: "If you play for one run, you'll only get one run."

Middle innings often determine the character of the game, and a coach must watch carefully for mood-shifts during this period.

For example, a tremendous pitching duel for three or four innings may suddenly shift gears when one of the pitchers loses his stuff-rhythm-control-poise-or whatever. Or a pitcher may struggle badly early in the game and then settle down and begin throwing O's, initiating a different kind of game.

Coaches should watch for a middle-inning shift in the nature of the game and try to capitalize on it.

Late inning offensive strategy should revolve around the score. Coaches should play conservatively when behind in the score and aggressively when ahead.

By the late innings, the character of the game will have been established (low-scoring or high-scoring) and the coach can proceed accordingly. The one factor that can drastically change the nature of a game is the presence or absence of an outstanding relief pitcher.

Coaches (or major-league managers) will often change their strategy in the late stages of a game because of an outstanding relief pitcher warming up in the opposing bullpen.

There are three parts ("three-thirds") of an inning and coaches have to understand that their chances of scoring a run are better with none out (when they have all three of the "thirds" remaining) than with one out ("two-thirds" left) or two outs and only one "third" remaining.

With none out, runs and innings permitting, the coach should play conservatively in the hope of getting a big inning going and scoring a lot of runs. Example, a team should never make the first out at third base or home plate!

It should play conservatively with no outs. Example, the runner should not try to advance to third or home if the play is going to be close. The percentages for scoring a runner from second or third with none out are better than they would be if you had let the runner try to make third or home on a close play.

With one out, a team can be a little more aggressive about scoring one run because it has already lost one-third of the inning and the percentages for a big inning are somewhat reduced. The runner has to be very aggressive about reaching third base with one out, as that will enable him to score on an out {or a wild pitch, a passed ball, etc.).

With two out, the percentage for scoring a lot of runs is greatly reduced. If the inning and score are right, a team should be aggressive and try to score one run.

Though it is certainly possible to score a lot of runs with two out, the percentages are against it and you don't want to premise your strategy on a big rally with two out;

A coach should be especially aggressive about reaching second base, as the percentages for scoring from first base with two out are very low (14%}, compared to the percentages of scoring from second base (26%).

Remember, with two out there is no percentage in holding up a runner at third and depending upon the next hitter to drive in the run. In short, if the coach feels that a runner approaching third base has a 5050 chance of scoring, he should send him in, unless perhaps the on-deck hitter is hitting about .500!

#4, Batting Order

Most batting orders are pretty standardized in that they are designed to maximize the hitters' potential. The normal batting order will have good baserunners and good contact-type hitters in the one-two-three spots, the power hitters in the four-five-six slots, and the weaker hitters at seven-eight-nine.

Young coaches like to dream up radical batting orders that will revolutionize the game, but they generally return to the conventional B.O.'s after a little trial and error.

The team offensive strategy is predicated on the skills of both the player at bat, and the players coming up later in the inning.

The coach should play a bit more conservatively with his stronger hitters coming up, giving them a better chance of driving in runs, and playing more aggressively with the weaker hitters coming to bat.

For example, with less than two out and a runner on second base, the coach may choose to hold the runner at third on a routine single to the outfield, particularly if a good hitter is coming up next. With a weak hitter coming up or with two out, the coach may choose to send the runner home.

Coaches have to be careful about putting their weaker hitters in slots that will find them coming up with runners in position to score.

For example, with no one out and a runner on first, you don't want to ask your #5 or #6 hitter to sacrifice the runner to second - and then have to depend on your weak #7 or #8 hitter to drive the runner in - not really good strategy unless the guys hitting in the lower part of the order are unusually good hitters.

Many baseball fans believe that major league managers are very predictable in their offensive strategy, and this may be somewhat true... but only because the strategy decisions are based on sound principles.

Such decisions do not involve magic, voodoo, or sleight-of-hand. They are based on knowing what their players can and cannot do, knowing the game situation at the moment, and understanding the percentages of success with a particular play or tactic.

Good strategy decisions maximize both the available information and the talents of the players, and are used consistently throughout the game, without recourse to "hunches" and "gut feelings."