Think Tanks: who's hot and who's not; the latest study comparing economic think tank visibility in the media. The hot economists and hot topics. (Cover Story).

Independent public policy research institutions, aka "Think Tanks," are major contributors to the policy debate in the US and worldwide. Drawing on a small but well-defined community of scholars with the combination of academic training and practical policy interests--and usually some policymaking experience--these institutions influence legislative and executive decisions, educate the public about policy issues, and bring together disparate interest groups in substantive discussion. They also receive a significant share of foundation, corporate, and NGO funding of policy relevant research, as well as provide advice, and sometimes high-level appointees, to the US government and the major international organizations.

Small wonder then that the relative influence of particular think tanks and of individual scholars within the community elicits a great deal of interest, even for those not involved in the game themselves. An article in the September/October 2000 issue of this magazine, evaluating the press visibility of specifically economic policy think tanks and their scholars over 1997-1999, attracted a great deal of attention (1). In it, the top three tanks in press citations on economics were found to be Brookings, the Institute for International Economics [IIE], and the American Enterprise Institute [AEI], and the top three individual economists were Fred Bergsten of IIE, and Robert Litan and Nicholas Lardy of Brookings.

Large parts of the think tank community were pleased if not surprised by the study and its results. Beyond the obvious satisfactions for those of us affiliated with the top ranked institutions, there was a useful benchmarking aspect for a profession whose ability to track effectiveness often seems limited. While press visibility is only one measure of a think tank's or individual economist's influence, it is an important one, given the well-known feedback loops between visibility and access to policymakers, credibility of research, public awareness of proposals, and breadth of support for those proposals.

It also is a reasonably objective measure of influence. Reporters for the major mainstream press have an interest in presenting authoritative and representative views on the important policy issues of the day--they will quote those people who are most useful to them on these criteria. To whatever degree particular think tank scholars are covered more because of their ability to clearly convey their analyses, that probably correlates with similar added impact on Capitol Hill and in meetings with decision-makers. Moreover, thanks to electronically searchable databases, the extent of press coverage of individuals can be verified without bias.

For these reasons, we undertook to extend Nicolas Ruble's earlier survey, both in time and over institutions considered. In this article, we report the results of a study of the number of press citations by think tank and by scholar for 16 research institutions in the major news publications over a five-year period, July 1, 1997 through June 30, 2002 (2). The basic principle for inclusion was that the scholar in question had to be listed by one of the considered think tanks as a senior-level (non-visiting, but not necessarily resident) researcher with primary areas of work in economics.

There were several questions that only this longer study, which spans changing agendas and presidential administrations, could answer, in addition to giving those included updates on "How'm I doin'?"

* First, is the demand for think tank commentary driven by the relative priority of differing news stories? So, for example, would the number of citations given to economists working on international issues decline as the Asian Crisis receded and Monicagate and the 2000 Presidential election came to the fore? (Short answer, yes, but in 2001-2002 global issues came back.)

* Second, to what degree does the partisan environment in Washington affect who is quoted? Are more conservative think tanks and economists given greater coverage under a Republican presidency? (Short answer, yes, but not hugely so.)

* Third, are there consistent personalities and qualities to think tanks? Or do the rankings and impact of them reflect changing fashions? (Short answer, no, those on top tend to stay on top, and their staffs tend to be stable, reinforcing the rankings.)

* Fourth, are there patterns in which publications favor which think tanks? For example, do domestically based and oriented US publications pay less attention to global economic issues than some international publications? (Short answer, yes, indeed, global coverage is greater in global papers.)

* Finally, how do the most cited economists compare to their peers, both to other think tank economists and to well-known academics, in terms of their visibility? (Short answer, the best-known think tank economists tend to gather at the same think tanks, and to garner citations comparable to all but a pair of academic superstars--guess who?)

And bottom line, which scholars are doing well in the press? Over the last five years, the top three think tanks by press citations are the same as in 1997-1999: Brookings first, IIE second, and AEI third in total cites, and IIe first, Brookings second, and AEI third if ranked by citations per economist, though AEI has closed the gap on both counts in recent years. The rest of the economics think tanks have a long way to go before catching up with the big three. The most cited individual think tank economists were pretty stable over the five year period as well: Fred Bergsten first, Robert Litan second, with Robert Reischauer moving into third place after taking over the Urban Institute (Nicholas Lardy, who was in third from 1997-1999, moved to fifth place overall).

1. THINK TANK BY THINK TANK

The Competitors [see Table 1] are sixteen think tanks well-known in Washington and worldwide (3). Some are multi-issue, like Hoover or CSIS, while some focus solely on economic issues, like ESI, but all are ranked here solely on the basis of their economics scholars' citations, to compare like with like. The political spectrum runs from libertarian right like Cato to labor-backed left like EPI. And some have a dedicated domestic focus, like the Urban Institute, while others are dedicated to international issues, like CFR.

As can be seen in Table 2, Brookings, IIE, and AEI are ranked 1-2-3 in total cites, with Brookings having nearly twice as many cites (1244) in total over the five years as either IIE (771) or AEI (624). Cato is in fourth place with 341, behind the top three by a noticeable margin, but also a comfortable amount ahead of the remaining think tanks. EPI, Hoover, Heritage, Urban, and CBPP are clustered together in the same range (180-265 cites over five years), with the remaining seven far behind. For think tanks whose primary focus is other than economics (CFR, CSIS), their low overall ranking should not be a surprise.

In terms of partisanship, there seems to be quite a bit of even-handedness by the press, with the most middle of the road/academic think tanks most cited, and an even split between left and right think tanks in the next tier of visibility. This was consistent over the period, with Brookings number 1 in total cites all five years, IIE in second in 4 out of 5 years, and AEI in third in 4 out of 5 years. The most noticeable improvements in visibility were for the Urban Institute after Reischauer took over, and recently by PPI.

Of course, think tanks vary greatly in size of staff. Hoover (with 51 economists) and Brookings (37) are far larger than any of the other institutions considered, while ESI (6) and PPI (9) are practically boutique-size tanks. While total impact of a think tank's staff should be related to number, impact per scholar is also of interest. Thus, in Figure 1 we track year-by-year citations per economist as a measure of average visibility, and per haps quality as judged by the press. The overall rankings change little, with the same top seven think tanks, but IIE comes out on top by a wide margin (12.9 cites per economist per year), with Brookings (6.7) and AEI (6.6) essentially tied following behind. Both AEI and Cato have been steadily increasing their citations per economist in recent years, Cato more than doubling (to a rate of around 5 cites per economist per year).

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

Turning to impact on the press rather than relative to each other, Figure 2 shows the shares of total cites from all 11 publications considered given to economists from each think tank. Brookings is again on top, with 26.5% share, followed by IIE (16.3%) and AEI (13.2%). Cato is clearly in fourth, with 7.2%, and EPI, Hoover, and Heritage are all around 5% market share.

Different publications, however, have different tastes. Grouping the press into two categories, Domestic (BW, NYT, USA, WP, WSJ) and International (AWSJ, Economist, FT, IHT, WSJE), one finds a significant divergence (4). Table 3 gives the breakdown by category and publication. Brookings dominates in the domestic publications, with 29.3% of total cites, and is particularly relied upon by Business Week and USA Today relative to other think tanks. AEI (12.2%) and IIE (12.1%) are nearly identical with each other both in share and (perhaps more surprisingly) in distribution across the five domestic press outlets. As might be expected Cato and Hoover play disproportionately well in the Wall Street Journal, while EPI gets far more coverage in the New York Times than in any other outlet. In interestingly bipartisan fashion, The Washington Post gives a great deal of coverage to both Heritage and to CBPP economists as compared to the other major news outlets.

Three major differences are apparent in the international press' coverage. First, Brookings and IIE switch places, with IIE grabbing a 27.4% share versus Brookings' 18.8% (AEI remains in third with 16.2%). Second, as these numbers make clear, there is a concentration at the top, with the share of the first three think tanks rising by 10% versus their piece of the pie in the domestic market. Presumably in the world press there is an emphasis on brand names, and displacement of some of the exposure of the less well-known US think tanks by Asian, European or other local institutions. Third, EPI loses a great deal of ground in the international market (3.0% vs. 6.7% domestic press share), in line with its more domestically focused mission.

In terms of individual publications, IIE scholars get far and away the most mention in the Asian WSJ, even in comparison to Cato and Hoover. Brookings scholars are rarely cited in the International Herald Tribune, despite their huge share of The Post and Times citations in the domestic market. The Economist clearly favors Brookings and IIE on both a total and per economist basis, but it is also the publication in which CFR's few economists have the most impact.

2. INDIVIDUAL ECONOMIST TALKING HEADS

Of course, it is individual scholars who are both the sources of these citations and the constituent components of these think tanks (5). If press citations are at least a partial indicator of influence on public policy, then the most cited in the press are the policy gurus to be reckoned with. Admittedly, it is also more fun to consider rankings of individuals than of institutions, particularly among the (ahem) modest members of the think tank community.

Table 4 gives the overall and year-by-year ranking by number of press citations of the top 30 economists at the sixteen think tanks considered. C. Fred Bergsten of IIE comes in first overall (with 299 cites), and having ranked number one in three of the five years. Robert Litan of Brookings (268) is second, ranking first in the two years Bergsten did not, but also dropping to fourth place in the most recent year, perhaps as regulatory issues receded under the Bush administration. In third place, Robert Reischauer (222), now President of the Urban Institute, formerly of Brookings, has ranked #2 or #3 in each of the past four years.

No other think tank economist accumulated over 200 press cites in the last five years, and in fact only six others topped 100 total. Two AEI scholars, Kevin Hassett (#7, 116) and John Makin (#9, 108), have shown the steadiest climbs up the rankings, showing up in the #4 through #6 slots in both of the last two years. Combined with the return of James Glassman (#4, 187) to the top 5, the second Bush era seems to have been coincident with a rise in AEI's visibility. Brookings has three scholars in the top 10 and nine in the top 30 from its staff of 37, and IIE has two in the top 10 and five in the top 30 from its staff of 12.

Clearly, the salience of scholars' topics of research to the current policy agenda (and press interests) has significant effects on their visibility in the press, once one goes below the top three. Glassman of AEI shot up to the number 2 position in 2001-2002 after investors' concerns about financial markets became paramount--it must be noted, however, that unlike the other 29 scholars on this list, Glassman has had a weekly column in The Post for most of this five-year period, and Post citations account for just under 50% of his total coverage. Nicholas Lardy of Brookings (#5, 149) has clearly had his visibility vary in line with the prominence of China in popular consciousness, just as Morris Goldstein of IIE (#6, 120) has seen his rank move up and down with the prominence of emerging market and IMF issues, though both have stayed in the top 30 throughout. On the domestic side, Jared Bernstein of EPI (#8, 112) has tended to gain rank in election years, reflecting his labor-issue focus. Robert Crandall of Brookings (#21, 51) and Nicholas Eberstadt of AEI (#22, 50) are examples of individuals who had single banner years when their particular issues (transportation and Korea, respectively) became hot.

Breaking down the individual citations and ranks by period (see Table 5) further illustrates how the policy agenda drives prominence. During the 1997-1999 period, when the Asian Financial Crisis was the dominant economic policy story, such international specialists as Bergsten, Lardy, Goldstein, and Prestowitz had on average nearly twice as many total cites as during 2000-2002, when US domestic politics and policy were prominent. The effect does not seem to be symmetric, however, with most domestic specialists, including Reischauer, Bernstein, Bartlett, and Rivlin, remaining relatively steady across the two periods or increasing a little in coverage. Of course, individual factors also were at play, as can be seen in the rise of particular scholars, the reduced citation of those approaching retirement, or the fate of those with one issue of declining salience. Nonetheless, the message seems to be that economics coverage expands to encompass international events when they draw attention from policymakers, rather than domestic and international scholars fighting for a fixed pool of total economics coverage.

Considering the citation proclivities of particular publications (Table 6), parallel to the categorization for think tanks in the previous section, supports the picture that partisanship plays a very limited role in press visibility. The WSJ and its two sister publications are rather inclusive in their citations, spreading them around the think tanks, although giving particular voice to Bruce Bartlett of NCPA in comparison to other publications. Similarly, the Times, while clearly favoring Bernstein of EPI compared to other publications, did reach out to a number of scholars from all think tanks, including Heritage and Cato. Leaving aside the set-asides for Glassman, the Post also drew its citations relatively even handedly across the political spectrum of think tanks. Clearly, however, economists at the more academically oriented think tanks (AEI, Brookings, IIE, excepting Hoover) drew the bulk of the citations from all the publications (6).

Unlike perceived partisanship, domestic versus international focus of research counts for a lot in determining where one is cited. Among the top ranked scholars, Litan has the most domestic press citations (217), with Reischauer (197) in second and Bergsten (153) in third. In the international press, however, the situation changes significantly, with Bergsten (141) way ahead, China expert Lardy (73) moving into second place, Litan (50) dropping to fourth, and Reischauer (25) into twelfth. More than half the total citations in the IHT go to AEI and IIE scholars, while Brookings and IIE corral more than half of the Economist's coverage (though Benn Steil's top individual total there of 10 cites gives CFR a presence in that one publication). The remaining international publications tend to spread coverage around like their domestic counterparts.

Several economists who are big in the domestic press go nearly unmentioned in the international press, including the tax scholars Henry Aaron and William Gale of Brookings, the labor economist Jared Bernstein of EPI, and the budget expert Robert Greenstein of CBPP. Meanwhile, most of those economists focused on international issues are evenly covered in both the international and the domestic press. It would seem that an emphasis on international research generally leads to more variable visibility, but also to exposure in a wider range of publications.

Given the focus on individual scholars, it is reasonable to ask whether any think tanks consist of one-man-bands, that is, whether the visibility of a single economist in the press is on its own the source of most of his home institution's visibility. Table 7 addresses this question by removing the most cited economist at each think tank in our sample from the institutional totals. The most important point is that the ranking of think tanks is essentially unchanged for the top half of the rankings even after this removal, either on total cites or on cites per remaining economists.

For some of the smaller institutions, however, the percent of total cites accruing to the remaining economists can be quite small, as low as 16.4% for ESI (without Prestowitz), or 36.8% for NCPA (without Bartlett). The flattest institutions by this criterion are Hoover (85.2% without Milton Friedman) and Cato (85.6% without Michael Tanner). Perhaps conservatives are egalitarians after all. In any event, among the top eight think tanks, only one (EPI) gets more than 40% of its citations from a single individual.

Finally, it must be acknowledged that think tank economists do not have a monopoly on press citations about public policy issues. Several well-known academic economists, often but not always with high-level policymaking experience, are also very visible in the major press. The most prominent of them are comparable in exposure to the most widely cited think tank economists. Taking Bergsten (299) and Litan (268) as the benchmark for five-year citation totals among think tank economists, the other most familiar names are in the same ballpark: Alan Blinder has 265 cites over 1997-2002 in the 11 publications considered, Martin Feldstein has 241, and Laura Tyson has 219. Former press favorites Michael Boskin (54) and Lester Thurow (98) have lost so, me visibility, though they still would rank as comparable to the top-30 think tank economists.

Unsurprisingly, the two standouts are Jeffrey Sachs with 375 cites, and Paul Krugman with an incredible 701 cites over the period. Even taking out the appearances of Krugman's New York Times column since January 2000 (and direct responses to them in the Times), he accumulated 332 cites in the last five years--and presumably the existence of his column cuts both ways somewhat, by guaranteeing him a certain number of appearances but discouraging his quotation elsewhere.

It remains to be seen whether any of the major economists who recently made departures from senior government positions (Stanley Fischer, Joseph Stiglitz, Larry Summers), or of those likely at some point to return to a life of policy scholarship from the current administration (Glenn Hubbard, Larry Lindsey, John Taylor) will attain those levels of press coverage. Of course, it depends on the particular jobs they have chosen and how they pursue them. It is safe to say, however, that the most prominent think tank and academic economists share the same rarefied circles of coverage, and the rest of the think tank top-30 get far more press coverage than their remaining academic brethren.

Table 1

The Competitors

The American Enterprise Institute (AEI)
The Brookings Institution (Brookings)
The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Carnegie)
The Cato Institute (Cato)
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
The Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (CBPP)
The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR)
The Economic Policy Institute (EPI)
The Economic Strategy Institute (ESI)
The Heritage Foundation (Heritage)
The Hoover Institution (Hoover)
The Hudson Institute (Hudson)
The Institute for International Economics (IIE)
The National Center for Policy Analysis (NCPA)
The Progressive Policy Institute (PPI)
The Urban Institute (Urban)

Table 2
Think Tank Rankings for Overall Period from 1997-2002
and 5 Year Average Cites per Economist

TOTAL
CITES                                                         5 YR AVG
 5 YR                                  TOTAL   TOTAL NO. OF   CITES PER
 RANK   THINK TANK                     CITES    ECONOMISTS    ECONOMIST

    1   Brookings Institution           1244        37           33.6
    2   Institute for International
        Economics                        771        12           64.3
    3   American Enterprise
        Institute                        624        19           32.8
    4   Cato Institute                   341        22           15.5
    5   Economic Policy Institute        265        16           16.6
    6   Hoover Institution               257        51            5.0
    7   Heritage Foundation              227        16           14.2
    8   Urban Institute                  194        15           12.9
    9   Center on Budget and Policy
        Priorities                       182        13           14.0
   10   Economic Strategy Institute      110         6           18.3
   11   National Center for Policy
        Analysis                         106        12            8.8
   12   Council on Foreign Relations     105        10           10.5
   13   Carnegie Endowment for
        International Peace               96         8           12.0
   13   Progressive Policy Institute      96         9           10.7
   15   Center for Strategic and
        International Studies             79        20            4.0
   16   Hudson Institute                  31        10            3.1

Figure 2
Total Cites from All 11 Publications (1997-2002)

Brookings   26.5%
IIE         16.3%
AEI         13.2%
Cato         7.2%
EPI          5.6%
Hoover       5.4%
Heritage     4.8%
Urban          4%
CBPP           4%
NCPA           2%
CFR            2%
ESI            2%
CEIP           2%
PPI            2%
CSIS           2%
Hudson         1%

Note: Table made from pie graph.

Table 3
Think Tank Rankings Publication Cites--Summaries and Domestic and
International Total Cites

5 Yr
Rank   Institution                     WPost   NYT   WSJ   USA  BW

   1   Brookings Institution            343    303   168    93  87
   2   Institute for International
       Economics                        157     92   116    28  18
   3   American Enterprise Institute    194     85   100    13  23
   4   Cato Institute                    92     49    79    26  13
   5   Economic Policy Institute         56    102    31    21  17
   6   Hoover Institution                32     34    71     5  26
   7   Heritage Foundation               82     29    31    26   3
   8   Urban Institute                   58     60    23    27   8
   9   Center on Budget and Policy
       Priorities                        81     49    18    15   7
  10   Economic Strategy Institute       25     16    14    12   9
  11   National Center for Policy
       Analysis                          11     27    38     4   7
  12   Council on Foreign Relations       3     14     9     3   0
  13   Carnegie Endowment for
       International Peace               26     21     9     6   1
  13   Progressive Policy Institute      35      7    10     9  18
  15   Center for Strategic and
       International Studies             18     16     6     8   3
  16   Hudson Institute                   8      4     5     2   0
       Total Breakdown for All
       Think Tanks
       Total Cites for All Think
       Tanks over Period

                                                   % of
5 Yr                                   Domestic    Total
Rank   Institution                      Total     Domestic   FT   AWSJ

   1   Brookings Institution             994        29.3     54    58
   2   Institute for International
       Economics                         411        12.1     78    99
   3   American Enterprise Institute     415        12.2     45    49
   4   Cato Institute                    259         7.6     17    26
   5   Economic Policy Institute         227         6.7     12    11
   6   Hoover Institution                168         4.9      4    34
   7   Heritage Foundation               171         5.0     14    13
   8   Urban Institute                   176         5.2     11     2
   9   Center on Budget and Policy
       Priorities                        170         5.0      4     4
  10   Economic Strategy Institute        76         2.2     10    13
  11   National Center for Policy
       Analysis                           87         2.6      4     5
  12   Council on Foreign Relations       29         0.9     26     6
  13   Carnegie Endowment for
       International Peace                63         1.9     13     4
  13   Progressive Policy Institute       79         2.3      3     5
  15   Center for Strategic and
       International Studies              51         1.5      4     1
  16   Hudson Institute                   19         0.6      5     3
       Total Breakdown for All
       Think Tanks                      3395
       Total Cites for All Think
       Tanks over Period                4659

                                                                   % of
5 Yr                                                       Intl   Total
Rank   Institution                     WSJE   IHT   Econ   Total   Intl

   1   Brookings Institution            64     13    48     237    18.8
   2   Institute for International
       Economics                        85     56    28     346    27.4
   3   American Enterprise Institute    57     44    10     205    16.2
   4   Cato Institute                   31      2     4      80     6.3
   5   Economic Policy Institute        12      1     2      38     3.0
   6   Hoover Institution               43      6     2      89     7.0
   7   Heritage Foundation              19      2     2      50     4.0
   8   Urban Institute                   4      0     1      18     1.4
   9   Center on Budget and Policy
       Priorities                        4      0     0      12     1.0
  10   Economic Strategy Institute       8      3     0      34     2.7
  11   National Center for Policy
       Analysis                          9      1     0      19     1.5
  12   Council on Foreign Relations      7      4    12      55     4.4
  13   Carnegie Endowment for
       International Peace               8      2     2      29     2.3
  13   Progressive Policy Institute      5      1     3      17     1.3
  15   Center for Strategic and
       International Studies             1     16     1      23     1.8
  16   Hudson Institute                  4      0     0      12     1.0
       Total Breakdown for All
       Think Tanks                                         1264
       Total Cites for All Think
       Tanks over Period

Table 4
Thirty Highest-Ranking Scholars (Five Year Rank and Breakdown of
Annual Rankings)

                                                      Total      Rank
5 Yr                                                  Cites     7/1/67-
Rank   Scholar                    Institution       by Fellow   6/30/98

   1   C. Fred Bergsten           IIE                  299          1
   2   Robert E. Litan            Brookings            268          3
   3   Robert D. Reischauer       Brookings/Urban      222          7
   4   James K. Glassman          AEI                  187          2
   5   Nicholas R. Lardy          Brookings            149          5
   6   Morris Goldstein           IIE                  120          4
   7   Kevin A. Hassett           AEI                  116         22
   8   Jared Bernstein            EPI                  112         11
   9   John H. Makin              AEI                  108          8
  10   Clyde V. Prestowitz, Jr.   ESI                   92          6
  11   Henry J. Aaron             Brookings             89         10
  12   Gary Clyde Hufbauer        IIE                   87        N/R
  13   William G. Gale            Brookings             75          8
  14   Robert Greenstein          CBPP                  71         12
  14   Adam S. Posen              IIE                   71         14
  16   Bruce Katz                 Brookings             70         22
  17   Bruce Bartlett             NCPA                  67         26
  18   Alice Rivlin               Brookings             64        N/R
  19   Will Marshall              PPI                   60        N/R
  20   Anders Aslund              CEIP                  56         14
  21   Robert W. Crandall         Brookings             51         14
  22   Nicholas Eberstadt         AEI                   50        N/R
  23   Michael D. Tanner          Cato                  49        N/R
  24   Daniel J. Mitchell         Heritage              47         22
  25   Jeffrey J. Schott          IIE                   46        N/R
  26   Edwin Feulner              Heritage              45        N/R
  27   Gary Burtless              Brookings             41         14
  28   Jeff Faux                  EPI                   38         26
  28   Milton Friedman            Hoover                38         14
  28   William A. Niskanen        Cato                  38        N/R
  28   Benn Steil                 CFR                   38        N/R

                                   Rank      Rank      Rank      Rank
5 Yr                              7/1/98-   7/1/96-   7/1/00-   7/1/01-
Rank   Scholar                    6/30/99   6/30/00   6/30/01   6/30/02

   1   C. Fred Bergsten               1         2         3         1
   2   Robert E. Litan                2         1         1         4
   3   Robert D. Reischauer           3         3         2         3
   4   James K. Glassman              4         9         5         2
   5   Nicholas R. Lardy              5         5        14         7
   6   Morris Goldstein               6        27        12        12
   7   Kevin A. Hassett              13         5         4         5
   8   Jared Bernstein                7         9         8         8
   9   John H. Makin                 23        22         5         6
  10   Clyde V. Prestowitz, Jr.      13        13       N/R        19
  11   Henry J. Aaron                 8         8        14        29
  12   Gary Clyde Hufbauer           17         4         9         8
  13   William G. Gale               15        27        17        29
  14   Robert Greenstein             29        22         7        19
  14   Adam S. Posen                  9        27        21        10
  16   Bruce Katz                    19        14        10        23
  17   Bruce Bartlett                19        13        11        29
  18   Alice Rivlin                   9         7        19       N/R
  19   Will Marshall                 26        11        12        23
  20   Anders Aslund                 12        13       N/R       N/R
  21   Robert W. Crandall            17       N/R       N/R        10
  22   Nicholas Eberstadt            26        11        30        29
  23   Michael D. Tanner             19        27        20       N/R
  24   Daniel J. Mitchell           N/R       N/R        18        19
  25   Jeffrey J. Schott            N/R        15       N/R        25
  26   Edwin Feulner                 16        26        22       N/R
  27   Gary Burtless                 23        22       N/R       N/R
  28   Jeff Faux                    N/R        19        26       N/R
  28   Milton Friedman               19       N/R       N/R       N/R
  28   William A. Niskanen          N/R       N/R        26        25
  28   Benn Steil                   N/R        16        22        14

NOTE: N/R notes that a scholar was not on the Top 30 list during a
given year.

Table 5
Changes in Cites by Fellows During Periods from 1997-1999 (Heat of the
Asian Crisis) and 2000-2002 (Election/Recession)

5 Yr                                                Total Cites
Rank   Scholar                    Institution        by Fellow

   1   C. Fred Bergsten           IIE                   299
   2   Robert E. Litan            Brookings             268
   3   Robert D. Reischauer       Brookings/Urban       222
   4   James K. Glassman          AEI                   187
   5   Nicholas R. Lardy          Brookings             149
   6   Morris Goldstein           IIE                   120
   7   Kevin A. Hassett           AEI                   116
   8   Jared Bernstein            EPI                   112
   9   John H. Makin              AEI                   108
  10   Clyde V. Prestowitz, Jr.   ESI                    92
  11   Henry J. Aaron             Brookings              89
  12   Gary Clyde Hufbauer        IIE                    87
  13   William G. Gale            Brookings              75
  14   Robed Greenstein           CBPP                   71
  14   Adam S. Posen              IIE                    71
  16   Bruce Katz                 Brookings              70
  17   Bruce Bartlett             NCPA                   67
  18   Alice Rivlin               Brookings              64
  19   Will Marshall              PPI                    60
  20   Anders Aslund              CEIP                   56
  21   Robert W. Crandall         Brookings              51
  22   Nicholas Eberstadt         AEI                    50
  23   Michael D. Tanner          Cato                   49
  24   Daniel J. Mitchell         Heritage               47
  25   Jeffrey J. Schott          IIE                    46
  26   Edwin Feulner              Heritage               45
  27   Gary Burtless              Brookings              41
  28   Jeff Faux                  EPI                    38
  28   Milton Friedman            Hoover                 38
  28   William A. Niskanen        Cato                   38
  28   Benn Steil                 CFR                    38
       Total Cites Dy All
       Fellows in Time Period:

5 Yr                              Cites by Fellow   Cites by Fellow
Rank   Scholar                     for 1997-1999     for 2000-2002

   1   C. Fred Bergsten                 165                87
   2   Robert E. Litan                  120                84
   3   Robert D. Reischauer              96                82
   4   James K. Glassman                100                69
   5   Nicholas R. Lardy                 80                45
   6   Morris Goldstein                  75                37
   7   Kevin A. Hassett                  28                64
   8   Jared Bernstein                   46                48
   9   John H. Makin                     36                62
  10   Clyde V. Prestowitz, Jr.          57                19
  11   Henry J. Aaron                    43                27
  12   Gary Clyde Hufbauer               14                47
  13   William G. Gale                   42                25
  14   Robed Greenstein                  23                38
  14   Adam S. Posen                     32                31
  16   Bruce Katz                        22                33
  17   Bruce Bartlett                    21                30
  18   Alice Rivlin                      22                22
  19   Will Marshall                     12                31
  20   Anders Aslund                     31                 9
  21   Robert W. Crandall                25                22
  22   Nicholas Eberstadt                16                17
  23   Michael D. Tanner                 20                21
  24   Daniel J. Mitchell                13                27
  25   Jeffrey J. Schott                 15                17
  26   Edwin Feulner                     21                15
  27   Gary Burtless                     23                 8
  28   Jeff Faux                         12                15
  28   Milton Friedman                   24                11
  28   William A. Niskanen               12                19
  28   Benn Steil                         1                24
       Total Cites Dy All
       Fellows in Time Period:         1247              1086

Table 6
Domestic and International Total Cites for Each Scholar

5 Yr
Rank   Scholar                    Institution       WPost   NYT   WSJ

   1   C. Fred Bergsten           IIE                61      44    37
   2   Robert E. Litan            Brookings          58      79    38
   3   James K. Glassman          AEI                90       5    22
   4   Robert Reischauer          Brookings/Urban    70      70    30
        (left Brookings 2/00)
   5   Nicholas R. Lardy          Brookings          19      22    15
   6   Morris Goldstein           IIE                23      14    23
   7   Kevin A. Hassett           AEI                35      14    24
   8   Jared Bernstein            EPI                14      63    12
   9   John H. Makin              AEI                20      22    17
  10   Clyde V. Prestowitz, Jr.   ESI                18      14    13
  11   Henry J. Aaron             Brookings          34      31     9
  12   Gary Clyde Hufbauer        IIE                13       5    26
  13   William G. Gale            Brookings          23      17    15
  14   Robert Greenstein          CBPP               27      22     8
  14   Adam S. Posen              IIE                 8       7     7
  16   Bruce Katz                 Brookings          24      13     3
  17   Bruce Bartlett             NCPA                5      15    22
  18   Alice Rivlin               Brookings          26      14     8
  19   Will Marshall              PPI                26       6     4
  20   Anders Aslund              CEIP                9      12     7
  21   Robert W. Crandall         Brookings           4      12    17
  22   Nicholas Eberstadt         AEI                 8      12     7
  23   Michael D. Tanner          Cato               17       6    14
  24   Daniel J. Mitchell         Heritage           14       9     8
  25   Jeffrey J. Schott          IIE                18       6     2
  26   Edwin Feulner              Heritage           26       3     3
  27   Gary Burtless              Brookings           9      18     5
  28   Jeff Faux                  EPI                13      10     3
  28   Milton Friedman            Hoover              1       4    17
  28   William A. Niskanen        Cato               16      12     5
  28   Benn Steil                 CFR                 0       5     3

5 Yr                                         Domestic
Rank   Scholar                    USA   BW    Total     FT   AWSJ

   1   C. Fred Bergsten             7    4     153      34    40
   2   Robert E. Litan             19   23     217       7    15
   3   James K. Glassman            3    4     124       7     9
   4   Robert Reischauer           27    0     197      10     2
        (left Brookings 2/00)
   5   Nicholas R. Lardy            6   11      73      24    26
   6   Morris Goldstein             9    1      70       4    21
   7   Kevin A. Hassett             3    8      84       6     9
   8   Jared Bernstein              7    7     103       3     2
   9   John H. Makin                0    3      62      10    12
  10   Clyde V. Prestowitz, Jr.     8    8      61       9    12
  11   Henry J. Aaron               6    4      84       1     0
  12   Gary Clyde Hufbauer          2    1      47       5    11
  13   William G. Gale              4   14      73       0     0
  14   Robert Greenstein            8    0      65       1     3
  14   Adam S. Posen                8    2      32      10    10
  16   Bruce Katz                  18    1      59       1     2
  17   Bruce Bartlett               3    5      50       4     4
  18   Alice Rivlin                 4    5      57       2     1
  19   Will Marshall                6   10      52       1     2
  20   Anders Aslund                3    1      32       9     3
  21   Robert W. Crandall           3    2      38       2     3
  22   Nicholas Eberstadt           2    0      29       0    11
  23   Michael D. Tanner            6    1      44       0     2
  24   Daniel J. Mitchell           2    2      35       3     2
  25   Jeffrey J. Schott            0    2      28       6     3
  26   Edwin Feulner                0    1      33       2     7
  27   Gary Burtless                1    1      34       0     0
  28   Jeff Faux                    0    2      28       7     2
  28   Milton Friedman              1    0      23       0     7
  28   William A. Niskanen          1    1      35       1     1
  28   Benn Steil                   2    0      10      11     1

5 Yr                                                  Intl
Rank   Scholar                    WSJE   IHT   Econ   Total

   1   C. Fred Bergsten            30     26    11     141
   2   Robert E. Litan             15      5     8      50
   3   James K. Glassman           16     30     1      63
   4   Robert Reischauer            8      1     4      25
        (left Brookings 2/00)
   5   Nicholas R. Lardy           11      3     9      73
   6   Morris Goldstein            14      6     4      49
   7   Kevin A. Hassett            12      4     1      32
   8   Jared Bernstein              3      0     1       9
   9   John H. Makin               13      7     4      46
  10   Clyde V. Prestowitz, Jr.     7      3     0      31
  11   Henry J. Aaron               2      0     2       5
  12   Gary Clyde Hufbauer         17      5     2      40
  13   William G. Gale              2      0     0       2
  14   Robert Greenstein            2      0     0       6
  14   Adam S. Posen                9      3     5      37
  16   Bruce Katz                   3      0     5      11
  17   Bruce Bartlett               8      1     0      17
  18   Alice Rivlin                 0      2     1       6
  19   Will Marshall                3      0     2       8
  20   Anders Aslund                7      1     1      21
  21   Robert W. Crandall           8      0     0      13
  22   Nicholas Eberstadt           7      0     2      20
  23   Michael D. Tanner            3      0     0       5
  24   Daniel J. Mitchell           7      0     0      12
  25   Jeffrey J. Schott            2      4     2      17
  26   Edwin Feulner                2      0     1      12
  27   Gary Burtless                2      0     5       7
  28   Jeff Faux                    1      0     0      10
  28   Milton Friedman              6      2     0      15
  28   William A. Niskanen          1      0     0       3
  28   Benn Steil                   5      0    10      27

Table 7
Think Tank Rankings without Most-Cited Economist

                                                        5-Yr Total
Think Tank (Ranked by Cites                              Cites w/o
  per Economist with Most       Most Cited              Most Cited
     Cited Economist)           Economist                Economist

Institute for International
  Economics                     C. Fred Bergsten            472
Brookings Institution           Robert Litan                976
American Enterprise Institute   James Glassman              437
Economic Strategy Institute     Clyde Prestowitz, Jr.        18
Economic Policy Institute       Jared Bernstein             153
Cato Institute                  Michael Tanner              292
Heritage Foundation             Edwin Feulner               182
Center on Budget and Policy
Priorities                      Robert Greenstein           111
Urban Institute                 Robert Reischauer            97
Carnegie Endowment for
  International Peace           Anders Aslund                40
Progressive Policy Institute    Will Marshall                36
Council on Foreign Relations    Benn Steil                   67
National Center for Policy
  Analysis                      Bruce Bartlett               39
Hoover Institution              Milton Friedman             219
Center for Strategic and
  International Studies         Edward Luttwak               58
Hudson Institute                Dennis Avery                 15

                                 Number of
                                Economists     Cites per     % of Total
Think Tank (Ranked by Cites      w/o Most    Economist w/o    Cites w/o
  per Economist with Most         Cited        Most Cited    Most Cited
     Cited Economist)           Economist      Economist      Economist

Institute for International
  Economics                        12             39.3           61.2
Brookings Institution              36             27.1           78.5
American Enterprise Institute      18             24.3           70.0
Economic Strategy Institute         5              3.6           16.4
Economic Policy Institute          15             10.2           57.7
Cato Institute                     21             13.9           85.6
Heritage Foundation                15             12.1           80.2
Center on Budget and Policy
Priorities                         12              9.3           70.0
Urban Institute                    14              6.9           50.0
Carnegie Endowment for
  International Peace               7              5.7           41.7
Progressive Policy Institute        8              4.5           37.5
Council on Foreign Relations        9              7.4           63.8
National Center for Policy
  Analysis                         11              3.5           36.8
Hoover Institution                 50              4.4           85.2
Center for Strategic and
  International Studies            19              3.1           73.4
Hudson Institute                    9              1.7           48.4

(1) "Think Tanks: Who's Hot and Who's Not," Nicolas S. Ruble, The International Economy, September/October 2000, pp. 10-16.

(2) The major news publications searched for this study are the Asian Wall Street Journal, Business Week, Economist, Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, International Herald Tribune, New York Times, USA Today, Wall Street Journal, Wall Street Journal Europe and The Washington Post. Both Lexis/Nexis and Dow Jones Interactive databases were used. For more details on the precise methodology employed see http://www.iie.com/study/study.htm.

(3) Two well-known institutions contributing to policy analysis are omitted because they do not fit into the definition of think tanks as independent research institutions with permanent staff. The Rand Corporation is largely funded by government contract work, and as a result, its scholars do not tend to make themselves as available to press. The National Bureau for Economic Research is a clearinghouse for hundreds of academics, with only a handful in residence at any time; far more often than not, NBER economists are identified by their primary, home university, designation when cited in the press.

(4) Foreign Affairs, being sui generis and only appearing six times a year, is left out of these calculations.

(5) An interesting question is whether think tanks are more than the sum of their individual parts in two senses: first, whether the reputation effect of a think tank overall might lead to an economist getting greater or fewer press cites than she would on her own merits; and, second, whether a community of reasonably comparable quality scholars within an institution might alter the visibility of its members, through increased or decreased opportunities either to refer press contacts to each other or to quality control each others' work.

(6) Business Week is the one publication to show obvious favoritism to scholars at one think tank in particular with no other think tanks' scholars cited half as often. Over 36% (87 out 237) of the think tank economist citations in Business Week in the last five years were to Brookings scholars.

Adam Posen is Senior Fellow at the Institute for International Economics.