The view from mainstream America: the Catholic voter in summer 2004: a national opinion survey of likely Catholic voters conducted for Catholics for a free choice by Belden Russonello & Stewart.

AS ONE-QUARTER OF THE electorate, American Catholics represent more than an important voting group. Over the past three decades, the attitudes of Catholic voters across the United States have been a reliable indicator of the attitudes and preferences of the nation as a whole concerning politics in presidential elections. From 1972 through 2000, Catholic voters as a voting group have swung from one party to another to support the candidate who received the most votes nationally.

This year's survey investigates many topics, including Catholic voter attitudes toward the war in Iraq, domestic issues that matter to voters, presidential preference, social issues such as abortion, stem-cell research, and marriage of same-sex couples, as well as what these voters think about Catholic bishops' involvement in political issues.

COMPLEX AND CULTURAL

The poll reveals a Catholic electorate that is more complex than many observers have noted. It is defined by some special characteristics:

* The Catholic vote is more Hispanic (15%) and less African American (2%) than the entire electorate: 4% of the national electorate is Hispanic and 10% is African American.

* The Catholic vote is more urban, more northeastern, and less southern, and it is somewhat more identified with the Democratic Party than is the rest of the country. Thirty-six percent of Catholics are Democrats, compared to 31% of the nation.

* It is more a cultural voting group than a religious one. Catholics are making their political choices based on a candidate's position on the war in Iraq, terrorism and family security issues such as jobs and health care. As a group, they mirror the nation's generally prochoice position on abortion, and support stem-cell research and the death penalty. They are not taking their political cues from the Catholic bishops.

The survey revealed five broad points about Catholic voters.

1. Catholic voter preference in the presidential election is evenly divided, and resolving the situation in Iraq drives the Catholic vote.

2. The Catholic vote is secular and does not take direction from the Catholic bishops.

3. Catholic voters continue to support legal abortion and to depart from church teachings on other issues.

4. Catholic voters' priorities are security, jobs and health care.

5. Catholic Hispanic voters defy easy labels.

1. Catholic voter preference in the presidential election is evenly divided, and resolving the situation in Iraq drives the Catholic vote.

At the time of the poll, the presidential race is dead even among likely Catholic voters: 40% for President George W. Bush, 40% for Senator John Kerry, 2% for Ralph Nader, and 18% undecided. The best predictor in determining Catholic voting intentions is the level of confidence likely voters have in President Bush's ability to resolve the conflict in Iraq.

As the US hands back governing power to Iraq, Catholic voters are divided but lean more toward keeping US troops "in Iraq as long as necessary to establish democracy and stability" (54%) than toward "bringing the troops home within six months, even if democracy and stability are not established" (45%).

Similarly, Catholics are divided over whether President Bush is up to the job of resolving the situation in Iraq. Catholics voters' confidence in the president to resolve the war mirrors their division on policy: 54% have confidence in Bush to resolve the war in Iraq (30% great deal, 24% some), while 46% are not confident (24% very little, 22% not much) in the president. Hispanic Catholics are among the most likely to want the troops home (54%) and to lack confidence in the president on this issue (59% have "not much" or "very little" confidence).

Confidence in the president to resolve the war in Iraq overshadows all other predictors of the vote.

* 92% of those who say they have a "great deal" of confidence in Bush on this issue are intending to vote for him.

* 87% of Catholics who have "very little" confidence in the president intend to vote for Kerry.

2. The Catholic vote is secular and does not take direction from the Catholic bishops.

By several measurements, Catholic voters make it very clear that they do not mix religion and politics. For example, the survey shows:

* By more than two) to one (70% to 30%), Catholic voters say the views of Catholic bishops are not important to them in deciding for whom to vote. Looking at those who feel strongly, 7% say the views of the bishops are "very important" to them, while 40% say they are "not at all important."

* Eight in ten (83%) Catholic voters do not believe that politicians who are Catholic have a religious obligation to vote on issues the way Catholic bishops recommend.

* Three-quarters (76%) disapprove of Catholic bishops denying communion to Catholics who support legal abortion and nearly eight in ten (78%) believe that politicians who are Catholic and who support legal abortion should not be denied communion.

3. Catholic voters continue to support legal abortion and to depart from church teachings on other issues.

Catholic voters part company with the position of the church hierarchy on a number of issues. For example, majorities of Catholic voters hold prochoice views on abortion.

* Six in ten Catholic voters (61%) agree that it should be legal for a woman to have an abortion. Over half of Catholic voters (53%) describe themselves as "prochoice." Three-quarters (74%) do not believe Catholics have a religious obligation to vote against candidates who support legal abortion.

* Just over one in 10 (13%) of all likely Catholic voters feel strongly opposed to legal abortion and would definitely vote against a candidate who flavored legal abortion. On the other side, one in 10 (10%) Catholic voters feels strongly that abortion should be legal and would definitely vote against a candidate who disagreed on this issue.

Looking at the attitudes of Catholic voters on a number of other social issues reveals they represent mainstream American thinking. On some issues, majorities will depart from the hierarchy's positions, while on others they will find themselves in agreement.

* Majorities of Catholic voters disagree with the hierarchy on several issues covered in the survey: allowing scientists to use stem cells from very early human embryos to find cures for diseases (72% support), the death penalty (71% support), and physician assisted suicide (53% support).

* Catholic voters, however, are more in line with the hierarchy on the issues of gay marriage, school vouchers and school prayer. Six in ten (64%) of Catholic voters oppose making gay and lesbian marriages legal. Three-quarters (74%) support school prayer and over half (56%) support school vouchers to help parents pay for the cost of tuition to private or religious schools.

4. Catholic voters' priorities are security, jobs and health care.

The priorities of Catholic voters reflect concerns about protecting the US from terrorism and resolving the war in Iraq, as well as bread and butter issues of personal economic security.

The issues Catholic voters want the next president to address include protecting American jobs, protecting Social Security, and improving health care. Catholic voters next place a high priority on improving education, improving Medicare, promoting moral values in the country, fighting crime, cutting taxes, protecting civil liberties and protecting the environment. Of less salience to Catholic voters are advancing gay rights, abortion and promoting human rights around the world.

The importance of Social Security, Medicare, and education to Catholic voters is underscored by their more than two to-one support for canceling some of the recent tax cuts to preserve Social Security. and Medicare (74% support canceling tax cuts; 26% oppose) and to improve education (68% support canceling tax cuts; 31% oppose).

5. Catholic Hispanic voters defy easy labels.

The Catholic Hispanic vote represents millions of Americans and is a growing force in American political and cultural life. In many ways these voters are quite similar to other Catholic voters in their thinking, but in many other ways they have their own characteristics.

As a group, Hispanic Catholics are younger, likely to have fewer years of formal schooling, and have lower annual incomes than Catholic voters overall. Politically, Hispanic Catholics identify more with the Democratic Party, but they are less likely to become politically involved. The Hispanic Catholic vote is primarily a large city vote.

In the presidential race, Hispanics support Kerry over Bush 47% to 30%, with 20% undecided.

On Iraq, Hispanic Catholic voters want to bring US troops home more so than does any other demographic group.

Like other Catholics, they are highly concerned about terrorism, but they elevate two issues--improving health care and public education--above other issues, including jobs and social security. They place cutting taxes lower on their list of priorities than do other Catholic voters.

Hispanic voters reflect the overall Catholic voter sentiment on a number of social issues: they are just as supportive of legal abortion (62% agree), in favor of stem-cell research (71%), opposed to legal marriage for same-sex couples (63%), and supportive of prayer in public schools (73%).

Hispanic Catholics are less supportive of the death penalty. (58%) and doctor-assisted suicide (42%) than are other Catholics. On the other hand, Hispanics are more likely to favor the US providing assistance to developing countries (69%), including funding voluntary family planning in developing countries (49% support).

Just like other Catholics, healthy majorities of Hispanic Catholic voters reject the idea of the Catholic bishops influencing the positions of political candidates, their own decisions on issues such as abortion, or the denial of communion to Catholics who disagree with the hierarchy's views.

MODERATE CATHOLICS POINT THE WAY

In summary, the 2004 survey reveals an overall Catholic vote that is reliably mainstream--highly concerned about the war in Iraq, divided about the best course of action, but also feeling strongly about the need for our leaders to concentrate on jobs and health care, Social Security, and public schools. It is a vote that is prochoice, but sees little urgency to make this an issue for the next president.

Catholic voters may listen to the words of the bishops on Sundays, but they do not want those words influencing policies or behaviors on the first Tuesday in November. Nor do they approve of the hierarchy using the sacrament of communion as a lever for political issues.

Like many other Americans, their political identification as conservative or liberal will predict what they decide on issues and on their choice for president. Moderate Catholic voters will be predictably less predictable. Watching these voters make up their minds as they weigh the issues and candidates will tell us a great deal about where American public opinion as a whole is headed.

Catholics' Presidential Choice: Ideology by Church Attendance

                        Bush   Kerry   Undecided

Total                   40%     40%       18%

Conservative Freq.
Church-goers            72%     15%       12%

Moderate Freq.
Church-goers            28%     42%       28%

Liberal Freq.
Church-goers             8%     78%       11%

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Should Catholic Politician
Vote on Issues the Way
Bishops Recommend?

Percent saying "no"

Overall                 83%

Frequent church-
goers                   72%

Occasional church-
goers                   90%

Never attend church     91%

Catholics' Views on the Influence of the Church Hierarchy

                        Yes     No

Politicians have a
religious obligation
to vote the way
bishops recommend       16%     83%

Approve of bishops
denying communion to
prochoice politicians   20%     78%

Approve of bishops
denying communion to
prochoice catholics     22%     76%

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Abortion Should Be Legal

            Somewhat   Strongly

Agree         33%        28%
Disagree      22%        16%

Note: Table made from bar graph.

Priorities for the Next President
(% saying highest priority)

Protecting the US from terrorism   65%

Resolving the war in Iraq          57%

Protecting American jobs           45%

Protecting Social Security         43%

Improving the health care system   42%

Improving public education         34%

Improving Medicare                 31%

Fighting crime                     28%

Promoting moral values             28%

Cutting taxes                      26%

Protecting civil liberties         24%

Protecting the environment         23%

Protecting a women's
right to choose abortion           16%

Promoting human rights             16%

Advancing gay rights                5%

Note: Table made from bar graph.

A Closer Look at Church-Goers

Taking a closer look at the four in ten Catholic voters (39%) who attend church at least once a week adds further evidence that the Catholic vote is more cultural than religious. A plurality--but not a majority--of these active Catholics call themselves politically conservative, and they often take more conservative positions on issues than the rest of the Catholic electorate. For example, they are somewhat less prochoice and more supportive of President Bush.

When we consider both church attendance and political ideology together, we find it is political beliefs that drive attitudes on the election and on issues, not attendance at mass. Catholic frequent church-goers who call themselves political conservatives make up 18% of the Catholic vote overall, while frequent church-goers who call themselves moderates are 15%, and those who identify as liberals count 6% overall.

Political ideology is a better predictor of presidential preference than is church attendance. Of those who are frequent church-goers, President Bush is winning among conservatives (72% Bush, 15% Kerry, 12% undecided), but challenger John Kerry currently leads among both moderates (42% Kerry, 29% Bush, 28% undecided) and liberals (78% Kerry, 8% Bush, 11% undecided).

Methodology

The 2004 survey, conducted from June 2 through 11 among 2,239 Catholics who are likely voters, includes an oversample of Hispanics (366 total Hispanics). The survey has a margin of sampling error for the entire survey of plus or minus 2.1 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error for results of the Hispanic subsample is plus or minus 5.2 percentage points. Knowledge Networks carried out the survey's sampling and interviewing using the random digit dial method to create a sample that then administers the questionnaire online. The full poll and a complete methodology can be found online at www.CatholicVote.org.

Catholics for a Free Choice is a non-partisan organization that does not support or oppose candidates for public office. The poll is an educational tool whose sole purpose is to educate opinion leaders about Catholic attitudes toward social and policy issues.

Printed copies of the poll are available from Catholics for a Free Choice, costing $10.00 each.