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The tortoise and the hare at a debate.


Presidential candidates have already had some overlapping travel schedules as they travel to the early primary states of New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina to shore up support.

But on June 3 and 5, respectively, Democrats and Republicans will descend on the 400-acre Saint Anselm College in Manchester, N.H., for two of the first presidential primary debates, fitting for the first-in-the-nation primary state.

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Wolf Blitzer will be moderating the debate, sponsored by CNN, local television station WMUR and The New Hampshire Union Leader. WMUR's Scott Spradling and the Union-Leader's John DiStaso will help pepper the candidates with questions.

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Alan Schroeder, professor of journalism at Northeastern University and author of "Presidential Debates: 40 Years of High-Risk TV," said he doesn't expect the top three frontrunners from each party to do anything dramatic.

"They're the ones that tend to operate on a short leash," he said. "I would be very surprised to hear Hillary [Clinton] make any mistakes. She has the least room to maneuver."

However, he said, a candidate like Democratic Gov. Bill Richardson has the potential to "break out from the pack and maybe do something dramatic to differentiate himself from everyone else." On the Republican side, he said that Sen. Sam Brownback, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Rep. Tom Tancredo are more likely to offer viewers something unexpected.

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With the crowded field on both sides, the best a dark horse candidate could hope for, he said, is a sound bite that might survive and become part of the coverage. "The audience is not enormous," Schroeder said, "so you are hoping for something that will get media coverage and more attention on the candidate. One of the traditional ways [for dark horses to succeed] is to take on one of the frontrunners."

But what both parties are missing, he said, is a firebrand, like Al Sharpton in 2004. "There's no real performer. There's a lot of senators, but they're not always the most vivacious candidates."

But sometimes playing it cool works. Schroeder pointed to then-Texas Gov. George W. Bush in the 2000 debates. He played things very cautiously in the primary debates and, as we all know, made it to the general election. Similarly, in the crowded 2004 Democratic field, Sen. John Kerry emerged by being the "steady but not scintillating debater," Schroeder said. "Sometimes it's like the tortoise and the hare. If you can keep to the task, you get ahead."

While many debates turn into rote recitations of campaign talking points, sometimes things can go from boring to ugly and doom a candidate's chance at the Oval Office.

And they don't even have to open their mouths to make the Big Mistake. In 1992, cameras caught George H. W. Bush checking his watch, implying he'd rather be anywhere else. In 2000, Vice President Al Gore could be heard audibly sighing at George W. Bush's answers, dooming a candidate already deemed too stiff.

But smart, off-the-cuff quips (and those that at least sound unrehearsed) can turn the tables on one's opponents.

In 1980, the Nashua Telegraph offered to host Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush in a one-on-one debate. After Bush agreed, Reagan turned the tables and agreed to pay for the debate so that he could set the rules. According to news accounts, Bush, who had campaigned on being "a candidate that wouldn't have to be trained," was visibly flustered, not boding well for a would-be future president who would have to mediate international crises. After the debate moderator tried to cut off Reagan as he was speaking about why candidates other than he and Bush should be included, he exclaimed, "I paid for this mic!"--a line that earned him a fair amount of media coverage and goodwill among other candidates' supporters.

In 1984, Gary Hart had been polling a close second until that infamous debate in Atlanta. His opponent, former Vice President Walter Mondale, had been trying to prove that Hart had no substance with his "new ideas" campaign theme. On March 11, Mondale finally held Hart off with this line, which refers to a Wendy's commercial at the time: "When I hear your new ideas I'm reminded of that ad, 'Where's the beef?'" The wildly popular line boosted Mondale to a primary win and sent Hart packing.

In a contest that has no definite winners but very definite losers, you can clearly be a tortoise or a hare--just as long as you watch what you say.
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Title Annotation:INSIDE POLITICS; travel of presidential candidates
Author:Blanchfield, Theodora A.
Publication:Campaigns & Elections
Geographic Code:1USA
Date:May 1, 2007
Words:750
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