The three electorates.

Can Bob Dole pull it off? Can Republicans preserve their 1994 majorities in Congress and state legislatures? The answers lie not so much in daily press reports about polls and tactics, mistakes and allegations, than in the basic structure of the nation's electorate.

An analysis of how to win this year starts with a recognition that there is not a single American electorate, but three:

One is the liberal-Democratic Party base. It comprises a third of all voters, a proportion that may change over time. On a good day for Democrats, it could be as high as 35-36 percent; on a bad day, 31-32 percent.

This electorate includes most African-Americans plus many whites who are organized labor loyalists, unionized public employees and teachers; pro-choice feminists; trial lawyers; environmentalists; low, fixed income seniors; gay activists; welfare recipients; and academic liberals. These voters share a common willingness to use government to right social wrongs and to eliminate economic inequities.

The conservative-Republican base also comprises about a third of all voters. It's largely white, middle and upper-middle income. It includes many suburbanites, business owners and managers, and fundamentalist Christians. Their goals: smaller government, lower taxes, and promotion of traditional family values.

The third electorate is a swelling sector of independents who are increasingly anti-partisan. These dissatisfied voters range from centrists, who are neither liberals nor conservatives, to alienated populists, who distrust Establishment institutions. Younger, this grouping takes in many pragmatists who hold strong opinions but who don't follow a consistent ideology. They're driven by opposition to government waste and incompetence and are outraged by political corruption and hypocrisy; their wrath is directed against politicians of both major parties who make promises but don't deliver.

In November, the Democratic electorate will stick with Bill Clinton come hell or high Whitewater - despite doubts some have about his integrity. Liberals will turn out heavily for Democrats in partisan showdowns this year, energized less by their own leadership than by hatred of the opposition (Newt Gingrich et al). Conversely, the Republican electorate will be there for their candidates. They, too, are less motivated by their own standard bearer than by the specter of four more years of President Clinton.

As usual, the key is the independent swing vote, now the fastest growing and most volatile of the electorates. In 1992, nearly two-thirds of them broke for Ross Perot. In 1994, Republicans nabbed a similarly hefty slice - and swept the nation as a result.

Current polls indicate that they now tilt to Clinton and the Democrats - a big turnaround from just 21 months ago. In a three-way race, Dole gets about the same 10 percent sliver that Bush wound up with in '92.

To attract the vital third electorate, Republicans need to position their anti-government philosophy within the context of a non-ideological, non-partisan message that stresses practical approaches to economic growth, education, restoration of mainstream values, and military preparedness.They don't have to move left on basic principles, but must be seen as doing what they're doing because it's right, not because there's a partisan advantage in it.

Bill Clinton has so far succeeded as a reelection candidate not because he's moved from left to center; in truth, he's always been all over the place somewhere between the two. The big strategic mid-course correction he's made has been to move from an activist to a passive presidency. The Republican takeover of Congress supplied him with a plausible rationale for this unusual, but deft, maneuver.

On Republican issues - crime, welfare, family values, big government - Clinton has co-opted the rhetoric without embracing the details. On issues where voters believe Republicans have gone too far- Medicare, Medicaid, education, and the environment - he cagily watches as his adversaries run full-steam over the cliff, and then ruefully waves goodbye as they drop into the abyss of public fear. On Democratic issues - health care, labor law reform, urban priorities, civil rights - he eludes controversy by avoiding a pro-active agenda.

Clinton's lack of activism has made him appear less partisan - and that appeals to independents who were turned off by the audacious partisanship displayed by many Republican leaders after their big '94 wins.

Over the last four years, each side has had its turn in the barrel of voter discontent over partisanship gone awry.

As the nation turns its weary eyes toward the national conventions, the lesson for all candidates - from Clinton and Dole on down - is that non-partisanship - from the left, right, or center - is good politics; it's where the votes are.

Ron Faucheux is editor and publisher of CAMPAIGNS & ELECTIONS magazine. E-mail your comments to [e-mail].