The specifics of modern armed conflicts.

Many crisis situations in the modern world, unfortunately, continue to be resolved through the use of military force, in the course of armed conflicts, oftentimes with the involvement of well trained and equipped military formations of different states. This necessitates an in-depth study and comprehensive analysis of military experience in the interest of identifying the most effective lines of force organization and development in the Republic of Kazakhstan, ensuring their readiness to effectively deal with an increasing scope of tasks on the battle field and enhance the country's defense capability.

Although armed conflicts break out in different areas, often quite remote from each other, while substantially differing in the scale, objectives, and content of combat action, as well as in the configuration of troops (force) contingents involved in combat operations, today, many new warfare specifics have emerged. The most important ones among them are as follows: the use, over extensive periods of time, of long-range, mainly air and space based, weapon systems; the growing role of navigation systems in fulfilling effective engagement tasks and synchronizing the actions not only of large operational groupings of forces, but also of small tactical formations, elements of military hardware and equipment, and even individual servicemen performing the most complex and responsible missions; the topical and fast flowing nature of combat action; the absence of protracted, position fighting (battles), and so forth.

Along with the changes in the character of warfare in general, some of its elements are also in the process of evolution--specifically, effective engagement. Experience shows that, as before, it is the key to routing enemy forces. In the new conditions, however, the process of effective engagement as such has undergone considerable modification, caused by the evolution and development of reconnaissance, guidance, and fire delivery systems. Integration of functionally different forces and assets on a unified technical and organizational platform helps develop qualitatively new weapon systems whose effectiveness thus increases to a very substantial degree. Experience in combat action shows that this has brought about a number of specifics in the organization and conduct of effective engagement.

First, in the armed conflicts of recent decades, delivery of fire against enemy troops at the beginning (outbreak) of war has acquired mainly a massive character. The selection of forms of such impact is contingent on a variety of factors, including the quality of high precision weapon systems and the extent to which they are made available to troops (forces). With a sufficient amount of high precision weapon systems on one of the sides and the relative inability of the opposite side to counter them, an armed conflict, as a general rule, begins with the delivery of massive strikes by the side that has superiority. Subsequently (as the most important tasks have been fulfilled through a decisive concentration of efforts), the focus is shifted to the systematic delivery of separate and multiple air (missile) strikes and the delivery of concentrated artillery fire. At the same time, there are instances when massive strikes are not delivered at the outbreak of war, while combat action is conducted with the mutual systematic delivery of fire by the opposing sides. This scenario is most of the time predicated on the lack sufficient information about the adversary by the outbreak of an armed conflict or the incomplete readiness of weapons systems and other attack (strike) assets for large scale operations or unfavorable weather conditions. Subsequently, however, an aggressor country, as a general rule, builds up its forces and assets and creates conditions for the delivery of massive or concentrated strikes.

Second, there has been a change of priorities in selecting targets for effective engagement depending on the scale of the war (armed conflict), the scenario for its outbreak and conduct, and the specifics and character of enemy actions. Whereas before high precision weapons and automated command and control systems appeared, the main focus was placed on the effective engagement of troops (forces), today, at the outbreak of war, the main efforts are as a general rule concentrated on effectively engaging command and control posts and air (missile) defense forces and assets, as well as other critical operational and strategic targets. Only after the enemy's air (missile) defense system has been suppressed and its command and control system disrupted, other tasks are addressed. It is important to note that the elimination (neutralization) of enemy troops and force groupings is not an end in itself with preference, as a rule, being given to their isolation or blocking with their subsequent disarming.

Third, the accuracy of strikes has increased considerably, which helps impact on pockets of enemy resistance (weapon emplacements, command and control posts, etc.) located near population centers, major industrial and other installations without creating the threat of their destruction, and substantially reducing the probability of civilian casualties.

Fourth, the time required for the preparation of weapons and other attack (strike) systems for action has reduced considerably, as has the time between the detection of a specific target and its effective engagement. Further development of high precision weapons will without a doubt help advance effective engagement capabilities in real time.

These and other specifics manifest themselves differently in the course of military operations in various parts of the world. They only point to certain trends in the evolution of effective engagement, including the general trend toward a certain measure of "humanization" of armed conflicts with a greater priority being given to impacting the enemy's technical component, including arms, military equipment, and automated command and control facilities. Yet all of the aforementioned general and particular specifics of warfare do not exhaust its specifics at the present stage. Without downplaying their importance, it is necessary to note some basically new phenomena whose essence and effects cannot as yet be accurately evaluated with the existing level of military knowledge. This applies, in particular, to new types of weapon systems that have been used only once in a while or whose appearance should be expected in the foreseeable future. The difficulty here is that whereas high precision weapons have gone through a relatively long period of evolution and development, the same cannot be said about the prospects for the use of weapons systems based on new physical principles. Further advancement of high precision weapons will apparently proceed within the framework of scientifically substantiated ideas about the essence, forms, and character of warfare, while there is no clear understanding about the capabilities, impacts and effectiveness of weapons based on, e.g., electromagnetic radiation.

At the same time, electromagnetic (EM) energy as a factor in the impact against an adversary in general has long been used in traditional EW systems. Yet in modern armed conflicts, the scale of mutual EW impacts is increasing substantially. It has already been noted in the military press that the delivery of massive air strikes against Iraq (1991) was accompanied by the electronic suppression of the adversary's radio frequency radiation (RFR) facilities. (1) There is a direct dependence between the effectiveness of fire delivery (engagement of enemy targets) and the degree of EW suppression of RFR installations, as well as a substantial increase in aviation and missile force capabilities, which was repeatedly demonstrated during the wars in the Persian Gulf, in Yugoslavia and other parts of the world.

Even so, an active employment of traditional EW suppression systems with their substantially increased quality parameters (specifications) has long been an important part of warfare, not at all a new element. What is more disturbing, however, is the use of basically new, hitherto unheard of weapon systems, during the course of some recent wars. Thus, during the war in Iraq (2003) the electromagnetic bomb (2) was used in strikes against Baghdad and other cities and towns in the country. Not surprisingly, no details were reported in the press as to the objectives that were thus pursued or achieved. Although, according to some military experts, the bombs did not play a particularly important role in the war because the Iraqi EW installations were for the most part inactive, (3) it could be assumed that the use of basically new weapon systems had apparently come as a surprise to the Iraqi side, which could have been a factor in their high effectiveness.

Such weapons use a powerful RFR electromagnetic beam to disable various electronic devices, including those not designed to receive electromagnetic energy. (4) Hence the conclusion about a very broad list of installations and facilities affected by these weapons since almost all modern weapon systems, including even small arms and light weapons, include electronic blocks and components, current carrying circuits, and so forth. Today, work is at hand on at least two types of such weapon systems. The first type generates EM radiation in the form of a pencil beam, while the second generates a flow of energy that is more or less equally distributed in space. It is noteworthy that the effectiveness of such weapon systems, in particular the range at which it can pose a danger to an installation (target), directly depends on its size. It is not ruled out that both types of weapon have already been created by now.

There are increasing reports in the mass media also about a more well known although not widely used type of weapons--laser weapons, based on the use of EM energy, in particular within its optical range. Although this type of weapons is prohibited, such systems continue to be developed. For example, prototype laser devices that can suppress snipers, sights and other optical instruments aimed at a target designed for effective engagement, are already available on the international arms market, which, given the existing scale of terrorist threat, obviously has practical implications.

Theoretically speaking, however, something else is far more important. Different types of weapons (traditional EW systems, the EM bomb or targeted radiation systems or laser weapons), based on the use of essentially the same damage producing effect--EM radiation, differ somewhat in their capacities, combat employment procedure, and their consequences even though these differences are still insufficiently known and are therefore not fully taken into account in the theory or practice of the military art.

There are also other, no less interesting instances of non-traditional impacts on various targets whose warfare capabilities are insufficiently studied. These include, e.g., virus programs that can effectively disable huge information systems, including global computer networks (banking, transport, and other systems). There is no information available in the open domain that such weapons have already been created, but it cannot be ruled out that such development programs are underway. It is not difficult to imagine that the use of computer (software) viruses designed to disable automated command and control systems or other facilities with a high level of "computerization," can produce a substantial impact not only on the effective engagement of enemy targets, but also on the nature of warfare as a whole. The current pace and scale of information technology development in practically all spheres of life, including in the military, suggest that such changes are quite real.

Given appropriate technology and expertise, unauthorized access and introduction of software viruses into the enemy's command and control systems in the course of combat action can cause irreparable damage and irreversible effects. There is also no doubt that remote controlled program (software) devices can be even more effective. All of this creates objective prerequisites for producing a basically new type of impact on the adversary in the course of armed conflicts--i.e., software assisted impacts.

Thus, while the contribution by basically new types of weapons to the fulfillment of combat tasks is constantly growing both on the theoretical and practical level, the real capabilities of such weapon systems are still poorly studied and the prospects for their combat employment remain unclear. All of this confronts the military science with an array of new, pressing tasks. First of all, it is necessary to conduct an in-depth analysis of armed conflicts with the use of state of the art weapon systems, update their classification or possibly develop a new classification. It is also important to study the lines of modernizing high precision weapon systems, clarify the prospects for the further development of weapons based on new physical principles, and analyze the possibility of using special programs (software) to impact on certain enemy targets. This could facilitate research projects in various spheres of the military science, including in resolving some theoretical problems of the military art and testing the results in practice.

NOTES:

1. Nezavisimoe voennoye obozrenie, No. 2, 2005.

2. Voennaya mysl', No. 7, 2003, p. 62.

3. Voennaya mysl', No. 8, 2003, p. 72.

4. Nezavisimoe voennoye obozrenie, No. 42, 2004.

Lt. Gen. A.B. TASBULATOV

Deputy defense minister of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Candidate of Historical Sciences

Col. V.I. ORLYANSKIY (Res.)

Member of the Kazakhstan National Defense University Dissertations Board, Doctor of Military Sciences