The space industry: supporting U.S. supremacy.

The mid-1990s were heady years for the commercial space industry. Space buffs had been promoting the privatization of space applications for some time, so the satellite industry could lessen if not sever its ties to the military. When manned planetary exploration fell victim to spiraling cost overruns, advocates of space privatization looked to the proliferation of satellites in near-earth space, particularly to personal communication technology. Just as investors in the 1990s considered anything Internet-related as an instant gold mine, space advocates viewed the success of small low-earth-orbit (LEO) communication satellites as a litmus test for the commercialization of space.

On the balance sheet, this strategy appeared to pay off. The commercial satellite industry posted double-digit growth trends to yield an industry aggregate in 2001 of $97.7 billion in revenues worldwide. This total includes $42 billion in satellite services, $17 billion in satellite manufacturing, $18 billion in ground stations, and $9 billion in launch services and vehicle manufacturing.

These numbers do not convey, however, the crisis in the satellite industry. Several recent disasters, including the simultaneous loss of 12 Globalstar satellites in Kazakhstan, have rocked investor confidence. Cost overruns imperil key projects. In perhaps the most significant blow, the telecommunications industry pulled the rug out from under the commercial satellite industry by turning to cellular networks based on the ground rather than in space. Throughout most of the 1990s, the average number of satellite launches per year was 90, but in 2001 the number shrunk to 60, of which only 15 were true commercial satellite launches.

Because of these problems, the commercial industry remains dependent on the military for technology and capital infusions. LEO networks have depended on technology developed by the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO); without technology transfers and handouts from the military, networks like Iridium never would have made it past the design stage. With the help of the military, the space industry in the U.S. remains the strongest in the world. There are some competitors. The European Space Agency (ESA) is still sending up Ariane satellites from the Kourou launch facility in French Guiana. The European Union (EU) still supports the Galileo navigation network, despite intense U.S. pressure to cancel the program. And China is on the verge of introducing an ambitious manned-mission and satellite program. But these foreign competitors represent only a minor challenge to the U.S. space program.

Although the melding of the U.S. Space Command into the Strategic Command appears to have placed space dominance in limbo, efforts to maintain unilateral control of space are as strong as ever, implemented by the enlarged Strategic Command and the new Northern Command, which has taken over the facilities of the former Space Command in Colorado Springs. The directors of the Strategic Command and of the NRO have argued forcefully in public for using existing strategic assets against any nation, any terror group, any drug dealer, to help reinforce U.S. invulnerability.

After the September 11 tragedy, even the so-called civilian programs within the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) began serving the government in a more explicit fashion. For example, NASA satellite systems like Sea-Wide Field Studies (Sea-WiFS) played a critical role in spotting Taliban forces during the Afghan War. And ties between NASA and the intelligence community are about to become even closer; the NRO announced in September 2002 the opening of a Transformational Communications Office to link Pentagon, NASA, and NRO communication networks in space.

Satellites and satellite launches are an integral part of the U.S. government's vision of achieving control over space for both military and economic purposes. The Space Command's 1996 document, Vision for 2020, talks of controlling planetary space in order to protect the current global division between economic haves and have-nots. In the 1990s, the notion of preserving "permanent preeminence," as defense analyst Michael Klare calls Washington's unspoken assumption of undisputed planetary hegemony, found unanimous favor as a philosophical baseline in almost all sectors of the Democratic and Republican parties. When the Bush administration took power in early 2001, this unilateralism and its application in space became an element of pride rather than merely a quiet reality as had been practiced by the Democrats.

Key Points

* During the 1990s, the commercial space industry flourished and ties to the military lessened.

* Recent disasters, cost overruns, industry shifts in technology, and post-9.11 security measures have increased military ties to civilian space programs.

* Foreign competitors represent only a minor challenge to the U.S. space program.