The responsibility of the informed citizen.

I had a DREAM, which was not all a dream. The bright sun was EXTINGUISH'D, and the stars Did wander darkling in the eternal space, Rayless, and pathless, and the ICY EARTH Swung blind and blackening in the MOONLESS AIR; Morn came and went - and came, and brought no day, And men forgot their passions in the dread Of this their desolation; and all hearts Were chill'd into a selfish prayer for light: The habitations of all things which dwell, Were burnt for beacons; CITIES WERE CONSUM'D, And men were gather'd round their blazing homes To look once more into each other's face; A fearful hope was all the world contain'd; Forests were set on fire - but hour by hour They fell and faded - and the crackling trunks Extinguish'd with a crash - and all was black. The brows of men by the despairing light Wore an unearthly aspect, as by fits The flashes fell upon them; some lay down And hid their eyes and wept; and some did rest Their chins upon their clenched hands, and smil'd; And others hurried to and fro, AND FED THEIR FUNERAL PILES WITH FUEL, and look'd up With mad disquietude on the dull sky, The PALL OF A PAST WORLD; and then again With curses cast them down upon the dust, And gnash'd their teeth and howl'd; THE WILD BIRDS SHRIEK'D And, terrified, did flutter on the ground, And FLAP THEIR USELESS WINGS; the wildest brutes Came tame and tremulous; and vipers crawl'd And twin'd themselves among the multitude, Hissing, but stingless - they were SLAIN FOR FOOD.

And WAR, which for a moment was no more, Did glut himself again: a meal was bought With BLOOD, and each sate sullenly apart Gorging himself in gloom: no love was left

All earth was but one thought - and that was death Immediate and inglorious; and the pang Of famine fed upon all entrails - men Died, and their bones were tombless as their flesh; The meagre by the meagre were DEVOUR'D, Even dogs assail'd their masters, all save one, And he was faithful to a corse, and kept The birds and beasts and famish'd men at bay, Till hunger clung them, or the dropping dead Lur'd their lank jaws; himself sought out no food, But with a PITEOUS AND PERPETUAL MOAN, And a quick desolate cry, licking the hand Which answer'd not with a caress - he died.

THE WORLD WAS VOID, The _populous and the powerful was a lump, SEASONLESS, HERBLESS, TREELESS, MANLESS, LIFELESS - A lump of death - a CHAOS of hard clay.

The rivers, lakes and ocean all stood still, And nothing stirr'd within their silent depths; SHIPS SAILORLESS LAY ROTTING ON THE SEA, And their masts fell down piecemeal; as they dropp'd They slept on the abyss

WITHOUT A SURGE -

The waves were dead; the tides were in their grave, The moon, their mistress, had expir'd before; The winds were wither'd in the stagnant air, And the clouds perish'd; Darkness had no need Of aid from them - She was the Universe.

The nuclear shockwaves from the Rajasthan desert in India and the Chagai Hills in Pakistan have reminded the world that the nuclear threat has not ended with the cold war. Despite the first progress in nuclear disarmament between the former antagonists - the United States and Russia - the nuclear domino effect has reached Southern Asia and the Middle East.

Long before the nuclear explosions in South Asia, the military in the nuclear-weapon States adapted to the new realities and directed their nuclear arsenals towards the so-called "threats from the South", despite the fact that almost the whole southern hemisphere has been declared a nuclear-weapon-free zone. Nuclear weapons become smaller and more precise to fulfil their task in new strategic concepts like counter proliferation and the United States Presidential Decision Directive (PDD-60). With computer simulation and laboratory testing, weapons labs aim at the continued modernization of nuclear weapons, circumventing the 1996 Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) that bans nuclear explosions, but not nuclear weapons development and testing. In addition to offensive programmes, ballistic missile defense systems are under development. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO) expansion has inspired Russia to rely more heavily on its nuclear weapons to compensate for the perceived conventional disadvantage in Europe. Nuclear disarmament is currently blocked on all fronts, as can be seen by the non-ratification of START II by the Russian Parliament and the crisis at the Geneva Conference on Disarmament, induced by the stalemate on the fissile cut-off and the Indian refusal to sign the CTBT, until the nuclear-weapons States show more willingness to disarm their nuclear arsenals.

To overcome this deadlock, determined efforts by Governments and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) are required. The stakes are high: Will the world in the new millennium be multi-nuclear, with a growing number of nuclear Powers, or will it be nuclear-weapon-free?

In this situation, suggestive of the bifurcation in chaos theory, small efforts could change the outcome in one or the other direction. Informed citizens could play an important role, not only in questioning nuclear weapons and their legality, but also in developing and strengthening alternative paths into the future. In the past three years, citizens have already made great progress in building momentum towards a nuclear-weapon-free world (NWFW).

In various ways, the 1995 Review and Extension Conference of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) was a watershed in the nuclear debate. Many rivers came together at United Nations Headquarters in New York and merged into a powerful stream for nuclear abolition. Two hundred NGOs signed a statement of 11 demands, the first of which calls for immediate "negotiations on a nuclear weapons abolition convention that requires the phased elimination of all nuclear weapons within a time-bound framework, with provisions for effective verification and enforcement". How the long-term goal could be realized step-by-step was examined in a study by 50 experts from 17 countries on the same occasion. Although delegates did not go as far as most NGOs wanted, they did sign the "principles and Objectives for Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament", which include obligations for utmost restraint in nuclear testing, a CTBT in 1996, a fissile cut-off and the ultimate elimination of nuclear weapons.

The critical mass of connections built in New York was a major source for the political chain reaction that followed the NPT Conference. For instance, the NGO statement served as a basis for the foundation of the Abolition 2000 Global Network in November 1995 in The Hague, now comprising more than 1,000 citizen groups from all over the world. Continued testing immediately after the NPT Conference aroused a storm of protest both from Governments and NGOs. This protest and the fiftieth anniversary of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombing helped to stop nuclear testing, build support for the 1995 Nobel Peace Price for Pugwash and Joseph Rotblat, and in the creation of the Canberra Commission on the Elimination of Nuclear Weapons by the Australian Government. The Commission's report, as well as other reports from the United States-based Stimson Center and the United States National Academy of Sciences, recommended steps towards a NWFW. This induced further activities, e.g. the initiative of 60 military leaders for the elimination of nuclear weapons in December 1996 and a similar appeal by more than 120 political leaders in February 1998.

In this environment, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on 8 July 1996 presented its historic advisory opinion on the illegality of nuclear weapons that was initiated by a network of NGOs years before. The ICJ's demand to fulfil the legal obligation for a complete nuclear disarmament was included in a 1996 General Assembly resolution, calling for the commencing of multilateral negotiations "leading to an early conclusion of a Nuclear Weapons Convention". In addition to two thirds of the world's States, this demand was supported by a considerable majority of the European Parliament in March 1997 and also by some members of the United States Congress in June 1998.

To further progress at the governmental level, informed citizens can contribute in a variety of ways to the transformation of the current non-proliferation regime into a NWFW regime:

* Drafting a Model Nuclear Weapons Convention (NWC): To demonstrate the basic feasibility of a NWFW and induce disarmament negotiations, an international consortium of scientists, lawyers and disarmament experts has drafted a Model NWC that was presented during the Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) meeting for the NPT review in April 1997 in New York. By end of 1997, this model treaty was submitted by Costa Rica to the Secretary-General and is now an official UN document. The current model convention, which is under continued discussion and review, comprises 19 Articles and 8 Annexes/Protocols. Article I contains general obligations not to "research, develop, test, produce, otherwise acquire, deploy, stockpile, maintain, retain or transfer nuclear weapons", as well as related nuclear materiels, delivery systems and components, and not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons. All existing nuclear weapons, their development and production facilities, as wall as delivery systems, command and control facilities, are to be destroyed or converted. In Article IV, the Model NWC proposes a flexible series of coordinated phases for implementation.

* Lobbying and developing strategies for nuclear disarmament negotiations: Most urgent is the need to overcome the current disarmament deadlock and to start multilateral negotiations leading towards the elimination of nuclear weapons. Negotiations on a NWC could serve as a framework, focusing, harmonizing and joining together future non-proliferation and disarmament measures. Unilateral steps could be combined with bilateral negotiations between the United States and the Russian Federation, negotiations among the P-5 and multilateral negotiations in the Conference on Disarmament or other bodies. Incremental and comprehensive approaches to a NWFW would complement and reinforce one another. Practical steps could include a no-first use of nuclear weapons, new nuclear-weapon-free zones, deep reductions of the nuclear arsenals and delivery systems, a ban on nuclear-weapons materials, further restrictions on nuclear weapons development, as well as the closure and conversion of nuclear weapons facilities. Recently, an initiative has been debated among NGOs to form a coalition of middle power States to push for binding commitments from the nuclear Powers. As a step in this direction, in June 1998 a group of eight States made a proposal for a New Agenda for a NWFW.

* Verification: It is of central importance for the effectiveness of nuclear disarmament to work out specific verification proposals which can discover clandestine nuclear-weapons-related activities with sufficient certainty, increasing transparency and confidence in the whole nuclear disarmament process.

This includes the declaration of nuclear-related facilities and activities, as well as an international registration and monitoring system, comprising non-destructive measurement devices, on-site and remote sensors, the detection of radio nuclides in the environment, and on-site inspections. According to the Model NWC, nuclear weapons material in the military and civil sector should be subject to preventive controls which not only discover diversion of significant amounts but would make diversion more difficult or even impossible. Scientists can also work on adequate methods for safe disposal of nuclear weapons materials. An international control agency would take care of the verification and implementation of the NWC, including consultation, cooperation and dispute settlement between Member States. In addition to the governmental tasks in verification, new possibilities of societal verification would be created that would provide citizens of all States with the right and the obligation to indicate suspected nuclear weapons activities. A number of cases of whistle-blowing already exist and, in the past year, a number of citizen inspection teams have visited suspected nuclear facilities in various countries.

* International security: The creation of a NWFW goes hand-in-hand with the creation of an international security community, minimizing incentives for acquiring nuclear weapons. The basic precondition is that any country should lose more than gain from a clandestine nuclear-weapons programme. The risk of treaty violation needs to be compared to the security gains by the diminishing nuclear threat.

* Cooperation and communication: The process towards a NWFW requires cooperation on the governmental and non-governmental levels beyond previous experiences. Progress in negotiations could stimulate cooperation in other fields of the international system, including environment, development and democracy building. A step into this direction was the 1998 NPT PrepCom in Geneva. At an informal session, NGOs made 13 statements to delegations which were the result of a collective process to ensure the participation of many NGOs with diverse views. A wide range of relevant topics was covered, including: ethical and humanitarian dimensions; health and environmental effects; nuclear power and sustainable energy; fissile materials; immediate disarmament steps; the NWC; regional initiatives; and security beyond nuclear deterrence. A final call to action urged fuller NGO participation in the review process and concluded: "It is time to put away these deadly instruments of war, clean up the toxic legacy of the nuclear age, and use our precious resources to provide for the genuine needs of our human family on planet Earth."

Dr. Jurgen Scheffran is Senior Researcher in the IANUS research group at the Darmstadt University of Technology, Germany. He is co-founder of the International Network of Engineers and Scientists Against Proliferation (INESAP), Editor of the INESAP Information Bulletin and co-author of the Model Nuclear Weapons Convention.