The real race is in the states: the two parties are neck and neck in the states, with near parity in legislative seats. But control could change in as many as 19 chambers.

With so much media attention focused on the dead-even race for the White House, many Americans might overlook the intriguing and unpredictable war for political dominance in state capitals, and that's too bad.

Democrats and Republicans have battled to a near-perfect stalemate for control of states where true policy innovation is ongoing. The big question for 2004 elections is will a tide rise for one of the two parties or is 50-50 government here for awhile?

Republicans are fighting to pad the slim majority of total legislative seats they achieved in 2002. Democrats hope to bounce back from a 50-year low.

Eminent legislative scholar Alan Rosenthal of Rutgers University says the Democrats are "at a low ebb" and could make some marginal gains this year. But, he points out, "Most districts are safe for one party or the other."

And that may result in a prolonged era of minimal partisan change in control. The critical nature of the handful of competitive seats cannot be overstated, says Rosenthal. Those seats hold the key to winning state legislatures.

Nearly 80 percent of the nation's 7,382 state legislative seats are up for grabs in November in the 44 states with regular elections scheduled. There are no general election contests in six states--Alabama, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia--and no regular Senate elections in Michigan and Minnesota. In all other states, it's the election year, and you can expect the unexpected.

A NATION DIVIDED

Legislatures may be an almost perfect reflection of the political polarization that has come to define America. Republicans hold 50.3 percent of the nation's 7,333 partisan legislative seats. Democrats trail by less than a percentage point with 49.4. Third party legislators account for a paltry 0.2 percent of the partisan seats. (Voters select Nebraska's 49 senators in nonpartisan elections.)

Political scientist Thad Kousser of the University of California-San Diego notes that the dramatic division in legislatures comes as no surprise and that a sharply divided electorate may be the new status quo.

"Research confirms that we have historic levels of polarization," says Kousser.

The big picture view also reveals an evenly divided country. The number of states with split control of government remains at record high levels. Following 2003 switches in governors in California and New Jersey, 29 states have governance divided, with neither party having exclusive control of the House, Senate and governor's office. Republicans wield complete power in 12 states and Democrats in eight. This is only slightly better than the Democrats' low point following the 1996 election when they held the legislature and governor's mansion in six states.

In terms of controlling legislatures, there is again parity between the two parties with the GOP having the advantage going into November. Republicans hold the majority in both chambers in 21 state legislatures compared to the Democrats, who control 17. In 11 states, party control is split with neither party running both chambers. The chamber breakdown looks like this--houses: 26 Republican, 23 Democratic, senates: 27 Republican, 21 Democratic, 1 tied, 1 nonpartisan.

The "perfect parity" award goes to the Oregon Senate, which is currently the only tied body at 15-15. The North Carolina House continues to operate under a shared power agreement adopted when the chamber was tied 60-60 after a member switched from Republican to Democrat just after the 2002 election. That member switched back to the GOP prior to filing for this election, returning the GOP majority to 61-59.

LEGISLATIVE BATTLEGROUNDS

Both tire Oregon Senate and the North Carolina House top any list of key places to watch for a possible party control shift in this year's election. On average, 12 legislative chambers have changed hands in every two-year election cycle back to 1938. And this round shapes up to be right on the average.

One chamber has already changed hands when Democrats seized control of the previously tied New Jersey Senate in 2003. As it stands now, a switch of three or fewer seats would alter control in 18 senates holding elections this year; a swing of five or fewer seats would shift control in 10 houses.

Those 28 chambers are the prime suspects for a switch in control, but with carefully crafted redistricting plans and built-in incumbent advantages, a smaller number are truly in play.

Louis Jacobson, deputy editor of Roll Call, handicaps state legislative races for the Rothenberg Political Report. He projects that "19 state legislative chambers appear to be significantly competitive--just under a quarter of the 84 chambers being contested this fall."

Jacobson lists six chambers as absolute toss-ups for control next January: Indiana House, Maine Senate, North Carolina House, Vermont House, Washington House and Washington Senate. In any of these, a shift of three or fewer seats will upset control. Others to watch are senates in Colorado, Georgia, Oregon and the Oklahoma House.

ISSUES 2004

The big concern for legislative candidates out on the stump is addressing the issues that will influence the voters' decisions when they enter the voting booth. "Almost every poll shows that Americans are preoccupied with two major issues," says Larry Sabato, the director of tire Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, "the war in Iraq and the overall economy."

And, according to Rutger's Rosenthal, legislative candidates in so-called safe districts will "parrot the party positions on national issues--Iraq and the economy."

In the relatively small number of competitive legislative districts, candidates will focus on the traditional state issues of "schools, roads and taxes," says Ferrel Guillory, director of the Program in Southern Politics, Media and Public Life at the University of North Carolina.

Some new issues, like same-sex marriage and outsourcing, will also creep into legislative campaigns. Thirty-six states looked at outsourcing legislation, and almost every state considered a constitutional or statutory measure on the gay marriage issue in 2004 sessions.

Gay marriage bans will be on at least 11 statewide ballots this fall and the question could have major implications for legislative races in those states--as will myriad other ballot questions voters will consider.

Often, state-specific issues drive the electorate. For example, gambling will be a big issue in at least a couple of states, including Pennsylvania, where the legislature approved a plan to allow electronic gaming machines across the state.

REDISTRICING REDUX 

Surprisingly, new district plans will affect races in a number of states this year, even though the census was four years ago and most states conducted redistricting in time for 2002 elections.

A few states, including Georgia and North Carolina, will be running on substantially revised maps after court orders threw out the plans used in 2002. In Maine and Montana candidates are running on new plans using 2000 census figures because those states conduct redistricting later than the other 48.

This is the first election for any Kansas Senate seats under new plans. And in Texas and Colorado, high profile redistricting fights over congressional lines in 2003 could galvanize voters who found mid-decade redistricting to be overreaching.

Because many seats are gerrymandered to benefit one of the two major parties, redistricting is always a factor in legislative elections, but it could be the X-factor in who winds up controlling the most legislatures this year.

3 Ts--TURNOVER, TERM LIMITS AND TURNOUT

Legislative turnover in 2002 spiked up considerably due to the redistricting cycle, "but on the whole, turnover should be down a bit from 2002," says Boise State University political scientist Gary Moncrief, who studies legislative turnover. Including seats that have already changed hands due to early vacancies, retiring legislators and election defeats of incumbents, "nationwide, turnover should be around 25 percent," Moncrief says.

For the past several election cycles, the big story was the onslaught of term limits in legislatures. In 2004, Oklahoma will be the only state confronting term limits for the first time with 42 lawmakers barred from seeking re-election. That adds up to 28 percent overall turnover even before any retirements by non-term-limited members or incumbent defeats.

Term limits will prohibit at least some legislators from running in 12 states although turnover in most of those will be close to the norm. Three more states will phase in term limits later this decade.

GOTV, or get-out-the-vote, will make a huge difference in 2004 if experts' predictions are any guide. In a briefing late last year to foreign journalists, Curtis Gans, director of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate, predicted that this will be "a high turnout election. You know, probably not anywhere near the levels of the 1960s, but this presidency, for better or worse, has served as a lightning rod."

Voter turnout among those eligible has hovered near 50 percent in recent elections, but Sabato agreed with Gans that November's turnout would tick up. "I predict that turnout will be back up toward 55 percent because emotions are running so high on the issues," says Sabato. That may not sound like much, but it adds up to more than 5 million additional voters.

COATTAILS 

The race for the White House between incumbent Republican President George W. Bush and Democratic challenger John Kerry will obviously get top billing, but will each candidate's success or failure affect legislative races?

Political scientists are split on whether presidential coattails really matter. Over the past 64 years, there have been 16 presidential elections, and the party of the person winning the White House gained seats in state legislatures in 11 of those 16, indicating that coattails do have an effect.

Even if coattails do not have a major impact, national efforts by the presidential campaigns to boost voter turnout could make a difference for those seeking legislative seats, especially in the "battleground" states where Bush and Kerry are fighting tooth and nail for precious electoral college votes.

"In the 17 or 18 so-called battleground states, the race for the White House could have a huge effect because of the money that will be spent and the nationalized efforts to get out the vote," says Chris Mooney, professor at the Institute of Government and Public Affairs at the University of Illinois, Springfield. He also says that sometimes "reverse-coattails" are more important. In other words, if legislative candidates do well, they could help carry their party's man to the White House.

WHO WILL WIN?

Leaders from both parties are optimistic about their chances to make gains in legislatures this year. Alex Johnson, executive director for the national Republican Legislative Campaign Committee, emphasizes that "growth issues, whether taxes or over-regulation, are where Republicans can differentiate themselves. Republicans who have held the line on taxes will be rewarded at the polls." He points to states like Oklahoma, Georgia, Colorado and Tennessee as places where he thinks GOP candidates will do well.

On the other side of the aisle, Michael Davies, executive director for the national Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, says "We're optimistic that independents are leaning toward the Democratic party because of economic and jobs issues, and that will make a significant difference."

Davies thinks that Democrats will fare well in many states, but he especially looks for them to pick up seats in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio and Missouri, where, he says, Democrats are under-represented.

If recent history is any guide, the safe wager is that each of these party leaders will have something to crow about when they wake up on Wednesday, Nov. 3. All signs are that this will be a very competitive election year and the post-election map will reflect a nation evenly split in its preference for donkeys and elephants.

Partisan Control of State Legislatures 2004

Headed into the major legislative election season, Republicans hold 21 legislatures, Democrats control 17 and 11 are split. 5,805 legislative seats, or nearly 80 percent of the 7,832 seats in the 50 states, are up for election. Alabama, Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, New Jersey and Virginia do not have elections this year.

Governor's Races 2004

With a few exceptions, the races for governor in 2004 do not appear to be all that exciting. There are only 11 states electing governors this year, and only four of them are open seats without an incumbent in the race. Like legislatures, governor's mansions are almost evenly divided. Republicans hold 28, and Democrats claim 22.

STATE LEGISLATURE

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STATE LEGISLATURES

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POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE HAT HAPPENED ... WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

Friday, Nov. 5, 2004 8 a.m.-2 p.m. Washington, D.C.

In partnership with Fleishman-Hillard Inc., State Legislatures magazine is offering a unique conference opportunity on the Friday after the election. Designed for government relations professionals who work with state legislature and governors, this one day meeting will report and analyze all of the results from this year's state elections including the wide range of ballot measures before voters. In addition, we'll examine any political changes in Washington and what those mean for states.

For more information and to register, call or e-mail Nancy Rhyme at NCSL, [phone] [e-mail]

Tim Storey is NCSL's expert on state elections.