The race is on: political parties gear up for 2003 midterm elections. (Politics).

Following Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) President Jose Woldenberg's Oct. 3 announcement that kicked off the campaign season, eager participants have already made preparations to ensure themselves a strong position in what is expected to be a highly competitive contest.

Apart from the federal congressional polls planned for 2003, there will also be 13 elections at the local level. Two issues are of utmost importance in light of the current political framework: the presidential decree creating a new regulation for the Federal Radio and Television Law and the actions of the National Governors' Conference.

MEDIA SHIELD

The change to the Federal Radio and Television Law published Oct. 10 in the Federation's Official Gazette translates into less airtime for the government. The decree eliminates the 12.5% of so-called fiscal time on radio and television stations--48 minutes less daily for television and 65 minutes less on the radio. The government claims that by reducing airtime, there will be an increase in quality since transmissions will be scheduled for more opportune time slots.

Legislators from President Vicente Fox's own National Action Party (PAN) were quick to express their discord with the decree. In addition, some journalists viewed the move as a clear indication that the government was bowing to the pressure of radio and TV station owners. Yet others argued the decision didn't take into account public discussions on the development of new media regulations the Interior Secretariat began in March 2001.

Most political analysts agree that behind such a decision lies a very clear political-electoral strategy. While the Fox administration seemingly gave in to media owners, it did not relinquish the authority to cancel government advertising contracts or revoke operating permits. Because of the strong hold it continues to maintain over radio and TV station owners, the administration is seen as enjoying a powerful alliance, which can give it hefty returns ahead of the 2003 elections and for the rest of Fox's term.

GOVERNORS' REBELLION

The National Governors' Conference (Conago) has played a key role in the relationship between the federal and state governments.

Beyond advocating the reconsideration of how that relationship works, in the short term Conago has positioned itself as a determining factor not only in negotiating the 2003 budget, but also in anticipation of the upcoming elections.

Conago met with Finance Secretariat officials on Oct. 16 to discuss the final destination of resources cut from state budgets during 2002. A few weeks later, Conago met in Chihuahua to sign the Chihuahua Declaration. Its stipulations include:

1. The establishment of direct dialogue with President Fox, foregoing intermediaries, principally Interior Secretary Santiago Creel and Finance Secretary Francisco Gil Diaz.

2. The revision and verification of the distribution of resources from the federal government to the states, making the tax collection process transparent.

3. Solicit from the executive the ways and means of verifying the earnings of state-owned oil company Petroleos Mexicanos.

4. Transfer to the states control over several federal social aid programs.

5. Create a special commission of governors to present fiscal and expense proposals to Congress.

6. Give 32% of the total radio and TV airtime the federal government is allotted to states, meaning 1% for each state.

Beyond the structural issues lies the indisputable fact that Conago's principal motive for taking a hard line stance with the government over the budget is to receive more funding for social programs that could impact next year's local and federal elections. The fact that these governors have served as intermediaries with federal authorities gives them political muscle they will likely use within their own parties at the state and national level, including choosing gubernatorial and congressional candidates.

It's clear the political-electoral fight has begun and the protagonists are making moves that will reap them the most rewards. It once again seems structural issues, like fiscal and energy reform, will continue to remain on the waiting list.

Joel Estudillo Rendon is a member of the board of the Mexican Institute for Political Studies.