The prospects for quarterback Kemp.

THE PROSPECTS FOR QUARTERBACK KEMP

JACK KEMP's numbers in the polls have hovered steadily at about 10 per cent, reflecting a committed organization and unwavering grassroots support. Opposing strategists point to the spread between Kemp's numbers and those of the front-runners, Bush and Dole. Yet, at 10 per cent, his base is conspicuously higher than Bush's was at a comparable point before the 1980 campaign, or Carter's in 1975.

To put it differently, Kemp is in tune with the conservative profile of the delegates who will do the nominating in New Orleans a little less than a year from now. He has proved all he needs to prove regarding 1) his conservative credentials, 2) his grasp of arcane policy detail, and 3) his claim to leadership post Reagan (remember Kemp-Roth?). What remain are what strategists call "threshold' qualities: Is Jack Kemp balanced, mature, seasoned? If Kemp can display these qualities on the campaign trail, he can make his numbers move. In other words, style is where Kemp needs work. A relaxed, confident candidate connects with the voters better than a perfect exposition of a complicated concept. Voters judge candidates by their qualities, not their position papers.

That's why the nine-term congressman from Upstate New York has taken the gamble on debating Democrats like Gephardt, and that's why he accepted Bill Buckley's inviation to a Firing Line debate before Dole and Bush had made up their minds. Kemp needs opportunities to demonstrate those threshold qualities.

It is unlikely, to say the least, that he will be handed the dramatic sort of opportunity that Ronald Reagan got in the 1980 New Hampshire debate. Nonetheless, New Hampshire has to be the focus of Kemp's early primary hopes. As for Reagan in 1980, so for Kemp in 1988, Iowa is unpromising territory. Iowa Republicans are about as typical of the average GOP delegate as Lowell Weicker is of your average GOP senator. New Hampshire is different. Its voters mirror the increasingly conservative makeup of GOP primary voters and delegates. Kemp needs to show in Iowa, but he needs to place in New Hampshire. What the voters, and the press, see and hear in the first few states will have far more impact for Super Tuesday than any number of endorsements.

With that in mind, Bush's strategy is to spend his substantial campaign treasury dry by Super Tuesday, hoping to dominate the Southern primaries. Unfortunately, Bush's numbers in the South are far from solid, notwithstanding strategist Lee Atwater's claims. (One of the interesting 1988 sideshows, by the way, will be the duel between the apprentice and his masters. Atwater grew in political stature under the tutelage first of Charlie Black, and later of Ed Rollins. Both Black and Rollins are aligned with the Kemp campaign, whereas Atwater has thrown in his lot with the Vice President. Inevitably, Black and Atwater are headed for a Southern showdown. Black is certain to teach Atwater some new tricks about how to highlight the opposing candidate's negatives as the campaign trail takes a southerly turn.)

Bush, meanwhile, runs the risk of parodying himself. Thus in meetings with reporters after the Iran-Contra hearings, he pointed proudly to the fact that during a critical White House meeting that might have tarred him with the Iran brush, he was "at the Army-Navy game.' Certainly, Bush can breathe a sigh of relief at escaping implication in any wrongdoing, but his strategists were sucking in their breath at his alibi, wondering when this double-edged self-exoneration would come back to haunt him. Bush's role as a fan at the Army-Navy game kept him out of trouble with Senator Inouye, true. Quarterback Kemp, meanwhile, was running interference for Oliver North and the Contras.

For his part, Bob Dole may discover that his handling of the media in the opening days of the Iran-Contra affair, while a boost in the polls, is no substitute for fresh ideas passionately put. Focus-group research-- a form of market research in which small groups of people are brought together for fairly in-depth discussion --on Republican primary voters shows that these activists want a candidate who will carry the country forward in the same general direction as Reagan. They are skeptical as to whether Republican establishment candidates like Bob Dole fit the bill. Dole--who, as chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, was a prime architect of the 1982 $87-billion-over-three-years TEFRA tax hike--seems somewhat too eager again to raise taxes to meet the current deficit. Hence Kemp's main chance will come when he stands shoulder to shoulder with Dole and Bush, so that the contrast between the GOP establishment and the new "rising tide lifting all boats' generation will be particularly striking.

KEMP HAS TO be prepared to luxuriate in his strengths, letting his organization and strategists take care of the race. He must beware, too, of what befell Gary Hart in 1984 --a sudden surge of momentum that the candidate was unable to channel. Meanwhile, Kemp ideologues will have to temper their thirst for purity and rectitude until after the 1989 presidential transition. Until then, they should let the image-makers coax out their candidate's winning qualities.