The parties face off: Bush supporters say young people will help turn the President's popularity into an era of Republican rule. But polls show the country is still closely divided.

The two students couldn't be more different. Charles Mitchell, a junior at Bucknell University in Pennsylvania, has draped the walls of his dorm room with a giant American flag decorated with red, white, and blue Christmas lights. A picture of former President Ronald Reagan, a conservative hero, hangs nearby. Mitchell is a founding member of his school's Conservatives Club and a contributor of barbed attacks on campus liberals in the club's conservative magazine.

Byron LaMasters, a junior at the University of Texas at Austin, decorates the walls of his off-campus room with a photo of himself shaking hands with 2000 Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore and a huge poster of President John F. Kennedy, a liberal icon. LaMasters spends an hour or more a day writing his weblog, The Burnt Orange Report, a daily dishing of frankly liberal views on national and state politics.

The two students, both 20, operate from opposite sides of the great dividing line in American politics between Democrats and Republicans. Behind the scenes this fall, they will be working with thousands of other political activists laying the groundwork for the next big American political pageant: the 2004 national elections, in which the presidency, 469 seats in Congress, and 11 governorships will be up for grabs.

The 2004 vote has the potential to be a history maker, political scientists and politicians on both sides of the line agree. Republicans, riding high on the popularity of President George W. Bush and his party's leading role in the war on terrorism, appear to have their best shot in decades for the kind of sweeping victory that can establish a mini-dynasty in American politics.

Democrats, by contrast, are in disarray, feuding among themselves and demoralized by Bush's strong standing in the polls. The Republican edge, says Professor John J. Pitney, a Claremont College political scientist, "reflects a shift in public inters to national security, which Republicans own."

However, the Republican advantage isn't a lock. Polls show that about 30 percent of Americans call themselves Republicans, and 30 percent Democrats, while nearly 40 percent say they are independents. Those numbers suggest a fluid electorate that could shift dramatically as events unfold.

Polls show that when Americans are asked which party they lean toward, the parties run neck and neck. Su& margins hint at a Republican advantage, because their party faithful are more likely to turn out to vote. "Republicans tend to be much more fervent," says Wiliams College political science professor George Marcus.

In addition, Bush's so far popularity may lure some independents, and even some Democrats, to vote Republican--as they did in the 2002 midterm elections.

Though the September 11 attacks and the war on terrorism have dramatically reworked the political landscape, the two parties will both depend on the bread-and-butter issues they have served up for decades (See "Quiz," page 15).

HONING THE MESSAGE

Republicans, the party of small government and pro-business policies, will tout the more than $1.6 trillion in tax cuts Bush has pushed to passage since taking office. As in prior elections, they will lambaste Democrats as weak on national security and defense.

Democrats, on the other hand, will cast themselves as believers in the power of government to solve social problems and improve living standards, especially for middle- and lower-income voters. They will place domestic concerns front and center, and advocate government aid programs and health-care reform that would be paid for with higher taxes on big business and wealthy people.

Both sides hope to develop election strategies that play to their strong suits (See "Trust Factor," above). The primary architect of the Republicans' plans, President Bush's chief political adviser, Karl Rove, is shaping a re-election bid that will constantly cast Bush in his role as Commander in Chief, and the liberator of Afghanistan and Iraq.

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The strategy will benefit Republicans by drawing voters' attention to what they like about Bush. The President is viewed as a strong leader with a likable personality. Republicans hope to focus the campaign on foreign affairs, the military, and the war on terrorism. It's a game plan they hope has the makings of a nightmare for Democrats.

[Democrats] are in a difficult position, because foreign affairs is being framed as an issue on which there's only one side," says Michael Traugott, a political science professor at the University of Michigan. "Nobody can be for terrorism."

RISKY BUSINESS

But the Republican strategy has its risks. By Election Day, a still-sputtering U.S. economy might distract attention from the Bush administration's foreign-policy record. That record too could come under attack if troubles in the Middle East worsen, or if Al Qaeda launches successful terrorist attacks.

Democrats appear to be banking especially hard on the scenario of economic woes. Most of the nine candidates who had entered the race by early summer have sharply criticized administration economic polities, especially the tax cuts.

"The Democrats are clinging to the one piece of flotation they have, and that's the economy and the associated issue of health care," says Ross K. Baker, a Rutgers University political scientist.

Part of the Democrats' problems are standard issue for a party out of power: The incumbent party has a natural leader in the President; the party out of power has a host of hopefuls battling for the party's nomination. (The fight for the top spot will begin in January in a series of state primary elections.)

The problems the nine candidates lace were in sharp relief after their first presidential debate in mid-May. Two of the candidates, Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, and former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, became so annoyed with one another that the others urged them to calm down.

The exchange demonstrated how fiercely the candidates are fighting to garner attention and distance themselves from the pack, though without success so far.

THE HIPUBLICANS ARE COMING

At least some political analysts say the Democrats' problems could snowball. Norman J. Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute says Democrats may have passed a point where "minority status gels and makes it exponentially harder to get back in" because potential candidates and donors no longer believe the party can produce winners.

Many Republicans are hoping they are seeing the beginning of such a shift on the national scene among young people. Republicans point to a new wave of conservative club on college campuses, like the one at Bucknell. The teen conservatives are being called "hipublicans" because their dress and sometimes rebellious demeanor would not be out of place on the set of MTV's The Real World.

Yet the picture of a sweeping wave of teen Republicans may be deceptive. Recent polls show teens divided politically much like adults (See graph, below).

Those poll numbers send a whiff of hope in the Democrats' direction. Democrats dream of transforming Republican setbacks into a surprise electoral turnaround. At least some political observers say such an outcome is possible, based on one of the oldest truths ha American politics.

"Most decisive elections are a consequence of the public rejecting something," says Thomas Mann of the Brookings Institution. The most effective message, he says, usually is the simple "Throw the rascals out!"

YOUNG AND POLITICAL

When you are old enough to vote, what
political party do you think you will join?

DEMOCRAT             31%
INDEPENDENT          33%
REFUSED/DON'T KNOW    5%
REPUBLICAN           31%

Note: Table made pie chart.

QUIZ: WHAT'S YOUR POLITICAL PARTY? DEMOCRAT OR REPUBLICAN? WHAT ARE YOUR VIEWS? WHO DO YOU SUPPORT?

The two main American political parties present two distinct visions of the role of government in American life. Here are several hot-button issues that will divide the parties in 2004. Check the box that most closely conforms to your views and find out at the end what party is more likely to get your nod.

1. TAXES * PARTY X ** PARTY Y

* PARTY X says tow taxes mean more money for Americans to spend, which fuels the U.S. economy. This party distrusts government to spend tax money wisely. It believes taxes are too high on businesses and the well-to-do, whose investments help create new jobs.

** PARTY Y argues that taxes should be set at a level that permits the government to fund beneficial programs, especially those that aid the poor and disadvantaged. This party says that taxes should be higher for large businesses and high-income people. It argues the well-to-do can afford to pay more in taxes.

2. HEALTH CARE * PARTY X ** PARTY Y

* PARTY X supports giving tax breaks to some of the more than 40 million Americans who can't now afford hearth insurance. The money would be used to buy private insurance. This party would Shift the elderly from Medicare, the government health plan for the elderly, into private health plans.

** PARTY Y has proposed several health-care reform plans. Most would raise taxes that would be used to guarantee health insurance for most Americans. This party opposes moving Medicare recipients to private plans, saying it would undermine the health-care system for the elderly.

3. ENVIRONMENT * PARTY X ** PARTY Y

* PARTY X favors reducing or lifting some environmental regulation, which it believes has become too restrictive. It argues that too much regulation costs businesses money and makes American products more expensive. To reduce U.S. dependence on foreign oil this party Supports a proposal to drill for oil in the Arctic National WildLife Refuge in Alaska, a protected wilderness.

** PARTY Y believes that only strong environmental laws will keep businesses from dumping waste or harming natural resources. This party supports strong environmental regulation, even when it means businesses must take on the high cost of cleanup. It opposes the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge drilling proposal, preferring more fuel-efficient vehicles to reduce energy dependence.

4. SCHOOL PRAYER * PARTY X ** PARTY Y

* PARTY X believes that organized prayer should be permitted in public schools, arguing that the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which mandates a separation of church and state, was never intended to stop school prayer.

** PARTY Y is divided on this point, but tends to side with those who believe that even nondenominational prayer ends up pressuring students to pray. it believes such pressure forces students to engage in state-sponsored religious practice, a violation of the Constitution.

5. MISSILE DEFENSE  * PARTY X ** PARTY Y

* PARTY X supports building an antimissile weapons system which is already under construction in Alaska. It would be able to knock down missiles from hostile nations aimed at the United States. The complex system would cost billions, hut this party says the expense is worth it, since the country would be safer.

** PARTY Y says the missile system needs more testing before spending the billions it would cost. It argues that early tests of the system haven't raised confidence that it would work effectively. This party says the antimissile system is too expensive and may never be effective enough to justify its cost.

HOW TO SCORE THE QUIZ:

Total your number of PARTY X and PARTY Y responses and use the following guide to rate your viewpoint:

3 OR MORE PARTY X's: Congratulations, you're a Republican, and with your party riding high at the moment, you are probably smiling. But what sort of Republican are you? If you scored 4 OR 5 PARTY X's you're likely a member of your party's hardcore faithful, who would readily support a plan to change the name of the Rocky Mountains to "The George W. Bush Presidential Range." A score of 3 PARTY X's means you're a moderate, and may even side with Democrats at times.

3 OR MORE PARTY Y's: Nice going, you're a Democrat, though perhaps the smiles are not so frequent for you these days. Your party currently has its share of difficulties, with Republicans controlling both the White House and the Congress and winning high marks for the conduct of the war on terrorism. But what kind of Democrat are you? 4 OR

MORE PARTY Y's mean you are a true believer, a Democrat to your bones. You probably support a Constitutional amendment banning people with the name of Bush from the presidency. 3 PARTY Y's make you a middle-of-the-road Democrat, like your Republican centrist counterpart, ready to strike bargains with the opposition.

--Peter Vilbig & Stacey Delikat

DISCUSSION QUESTIONS

* Why do you believe more Americans identify themselves as independents than either as Democrats or Republicans?

* Why are you a Democrat, a Republican, or neither?

TEACHING OBJECTIVES

To help students understand the differences between the two major political parties, specifically the position each takes on critical issues facing the American people in the years ahead.

CLASSROOM STRATEGIES

CRITICAL THINKING/WRITING/DISCUSSION: After students finish reading the article, direct their attention back to the list of seven issues in the "Trust Factor" sidebar on page 17. Tell them that committees of the Democratic and Republican parties meet each presidential-election year to spell out their positions--known in the political world as "platform planks"--on key issues facing the American people and government. Now tell them to assume that they are members of either the Democratic or Republican platform committee. You can allow students to choose a party, or you may wish to split the class into two groups, or otherwise assign students to either group.

Students in either party must each write a three or four-sentence explanation of how their party should address each of the issues identified in "Trust Factor." For example, if one of the issues had been immigration, students would explain why the U.S. should restrict new immigration or increase the number of immigrants admitted to the United States each year.

Students read their planks aloud. Other students review these positions, explaining their support for each plank or identifying possible problems they see in the stands taken.

INTERVIEW/POLL: You might have students ask their parents about which party they trust most to address the issues listed on page 17. Students can bring the results back to class and share the findings. How do students--and their parents--stack up against other Americans when it comes to trusting either party on the issues shown?

Web Watch: Check out key issues from the Democratic Party perspective at www.democrats.org and from the Republican Party perspective at www.rnc.org.

Upfront QUIZ 2

MULTIPLE CHOICE/FILL IN THE BLANK > NATIONAL > PAGES 14-18

DIRECTIONS: Circle correct letter or fill in the blank.

1. The presidency is not the only office up for grabs in the 2004 elections. Eleven state governorships and 469 seats in--will also be at stake.

2. Political experts say President Bush's current popularity among ordinary Americans reflects a shift in public interest to the issue of

a gun control.

b school improvement.

c cleaning up the environment.

d national security.

3. Public opinion polls reveal that about 30 percent of Americans identify themselves as Democrats and 30 percent identify themselves as Republicans. But 40 percent identify themselves as--.

4. Although support for Democrats and Republicans runs neck and neck, political experts say the advantage lies with--because their supporters are more likely to turn out to vote.

5. Voters tend to trust Democrats more on

a tax cuts and health care.

b the environment and health care.

c strong missile defense and public-school prayer.

d tax cuts and a strong missile defense.

6. Republicans' popularity could tumble by Election Day if

a the economy is still in trouble.

b East and West Europe grow stronger.

c President Bush fills a vacancy on the Supreme Court.

d former President Bill Clinton speaks out against President Bush's policies.

7. The Democrat who faces President Bush in the November 2004 elections will be selected by

a delegates to the Democratic Party convention next year.

b a vote of top Democrats in Congress.

c a vote of Democratic Governors.

d votes in state primary elections, starting in January.

1. Congress

2. (d) national security.

3. independents.

4. Republicans

5. (b) the environment and health care.

6. (a) the economy is still in trouble.

7. (d) votes in state primary elections, starting in January.