The next campaign: parties face internal battles ahead of 2006.

As expected, the three major political parties have experienced intense internal battles as 2005 gets under way. The skirmishes are a natural result of factions angling for better positions within their respective parties and in President Fox's Cabinet. The participants all have their eyes on the 2006 presidential campaign and below we'll handicap the nomination race.

Madrazo's Labyrinth

The party president of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), Roberto Madrazo, is the man to beat. The favorite to get the nod for the former ruling party, Madrazo's pragmatism (comparable to Jose Fouche of Napoleonic France) has allowed him to rise above the roiling waters.

* Unidad Democratica, also known as Tucom (Todos Unidos Contra Madrazo), is comprised of PRI governors and Senate leader Enrique Jackson. Tucom is exerting pressure to gain assurance that the nominating process will be fair. Their primary demand is that Madrazo step down as party president.

* The reappearance of Elba Esther Gordillo is cause for concern. The teachers' union leader and PRI secretary general is expected to push Madrazo to step down and level the playing field. Gordillo also has revenge on her mind since Madrazo and his cadre orchestrated her ouster as party leader in the Chamber of Deputies. A threat of a party schism is her leverage, since Gordillo has spent the past few months using her iron-fisted union control to organize the New Alliance Party, as yet not an officially recognized party.

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* Unlike last year, when the PRI won the most-prized state elections (helping Madrazo strengthen his leadership position), the party got off to a rocky start this year. After dominating Guerrero politics for 80 years, the PRI was toppled in the Feb. 6 gubernatorial election there.

Despite these challenges and setbacks, Madrazo has not seen his position weaken. Unlike 2000, when Madrazo lost the nomination to Francisco Labastida, he is the undisputed institutional leader. While technically respecting party regulations on the nomination process, Madrazo is emphasizing party unity as the indispensable requirement to return the PRI to Los Pinos.

The March 4 National Assembly will establish the PRI nomination calendar and the rules for the primary. This will determine if Madrazo can successfully navigate the labyrinth and emerge as the PRI's candidate.

Between Ineptitude and Cartels

Hopefuls for the candidacy of the National Action Party (PAN) are also calling for fairness in the nominating process.

* Several prospective candidates have teamed up to attack the early favorite, Interior Secretary Santiago Creel. The principal complaint is the allegation that Creel is using his post to proselytize on behalf of his candidacy. If the PRI has its Tucom, the PAN has a similar group--Todos Unidos Contra Creel.

* In addition to the clash of candidates, the contest for national party leadership--set to occur on March 5--is taking on greater meaning since it will directly impact the nominating process. Two presidential hopefuls, Felipe Calderon (the former energy secretary who hails from a staunch PAN family) and Carlos Medina (former governor of Guanajuato) brokered a deal--Medina would renounce his presidential aspirations and Calderon would withdraw his favorite in the race to succeed PAN party president Luis Bravo Mena. Calderon also promised to lobby other PAN factions, including members of Fox's Cabinet, to back Medina's bid.

As such, Calderon strengthened his position versus Creel without directly challenging President Fox (Creel is said to be his favorite). This is a mistake Rep. Francisco Barrio made. Barrio (former governor of Chihuahua and Fox's former comptroller general) sought to appeal to PANistas who are dissatisfied with Fox's performance by openly criticizing the lack of achievements during the Fox administration.

Creel's nominee for PAN party president, Manuel Espino, was permanently damaged by his relationship to Los Pinos travel secretary Nahum Acosta, who was recently placed under house arrest for allegedly leaking Fox's agenda to drug traffickers.

The PAN was the big loser in the Feb. 6 gubernatorial elections in Baja California Sur, Guerrero and Quintana Roo. In Guerrero, the conservative party managed an embarrassing 2 percent of the vote, a rude shock to the party that only four years ago knocked the PRI out of Los Pinos.

The party's next president must be a strong politician with recognizable leadership skills and electoral dexterity to boost the PAN's profile. Bravo Mena leaves the post weakened and shaken and the door seems to be wide open for the Calderon-Medina ticket.

Is Andres Manuel Invincible?

Mexico City Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is the leading presidential candidate for the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD). Up till now, the Tabasco native has fended off all challenges and scandals both within and outside his party. He also is expected to exert plenty of influence as the PRD prepares to select a new party president on March 18.

* The mayor has confronted the political accusations that could disqualify him from competing for president--Congress could strip him of immunity and force him to face charges of violating a judicial order in a process known as desafuero--by accusing his opponents of conspiring against him. The strategy has won a good deal of public support, with which he has sought to threaten his opponents by implying that widespread protests would result if he is prohibited from running for president. But it also gives credence to those who say Lopez Obrador acts as if he is above the law. In the most recent poll published by Reforma newspaper, the mayor's approval rating in the capital rose from 74 percent in November to 76 percent in February. It might seem like a minor bump up, but it is much more significant in view of the fact that the federal government has seemingly been trying to undermine the mayor with constant political confrontation.

* The PRD's latest electoral triumphs--retaining the governor's post in Baja California Sur (BCS) and winning the gubernatorial vote in Guerrero, with considerable help from Lopez Obrador and his cadre--have tremendous implications for the PRD.

Outgoing BCS Gov. Leonel Cota Montano has seen his aspirations to become the next party president significantly strengthened since the PRD held onto the governor's mansion there. Cota Montano is backed by Lopez Obrador. With this performance outside of Mexico City, the current party leadership answered one of the primary criticisms lodged by party stalwart Cuauhtemoc Cardenas. Furthermore, Lopez Obrador and his team strengthened their position within the PRD. This will help them in the race for party president, to continue their fight against the desafuero and to stand up to the challenge from Cardenas for the PRD presidential nomination.

With these recent developments--and despite the looming black clouds brought on by the desafuero--the PRD seems as if it has no choice but to back Lopez Obrador if it has any hopes of winning in 2006.

The question is: Does the mayor possess sufficient political wisdom to avoid riling internal rivals and thus preserve party unity, or will the appearance of being invincible tempt him to over-reach and bring his candidacy tumbling down?

Joel Estudillo Rendon is a member of the board of the Instituto Mexicano de Estudios Politicos.