The new platform myth.

Aren't new computing platforms like Windows supposed to create breakthrough opportunities for upstart companies?

That's the theory. But so far, there's been a striking shortage of successful upstarts. In spreadsheets and word processing, it's already clear that microsoft, Lotus, WordPerfect, and Borland will own virtually the whole market--and we suspect that when the dust settles, Lotus will dominate windows spreadsheets, WordPerfect still will be top dog in word processing, and Borland will prevail in databases. In fact, it's hard to find a major category where Windows seems likely to create a radical realignment of the marketplace.

Does that imply that Windows applications aren't selling? Overall Windows application sales have really picked up lately, but most of the volume seems to be coming from companies that already had strong DOS products. For instance, year-end sales of the Windows version of Quicken went right through the roof. But Quicken was already the leading personal finance title; if anything, the Windows version just strengthened Intuit's hold on the market. With very few exceptions, the little windows wannabe companies are still just that--wannabes.

But haven't we seen major upsets in the past with the emergence of new platforms?

The big upsets usually occurred because an established market leader--a Wordstar, a VisiCorp, a Lotus--waited much too long to exploit a platform that had become popular with users. It's always nice to have competitors who shoot themselves in the foot, but that's more a matter of luck, not a predictable business strategy.

Is your point that the GUI revolution ultimately won't have much inpact on the software industry?

Not quite. Windows--and new platforms in general--do give developers innovative tools for creating products in new categories. The Macintosh, for example, created opportunities for companies like Aldus and Adobe in desktop publishing, a market that barely existed in the DOS world. The critical success factor wasn't the availability of a new platform--it was the imagination of the few entrepreneurs who figured out really interesting and important things to do with a new environment. Windows almost certainly will trigger another generation of hot new companies--once developers realize that creativity is more important than being first to jump on the platform bandwagon.