The midterm elections: its showtime: once again, the Democrats and the Republicans wrangle for control. (National).

Tom Daschle, the Senate majority leader, was pulling no punches. In the campaign leading up to next week's elections, the nation's highest-ranking Democrat called the Republican record on the U.S. economy "tragic, deplorable, and abysmal." He blamed President George W. Bush and his party for the loss of 2 million jobs, weak economic growth, and a stock market decline unparalleled since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

How did the President respond? He barely mentioned the economy (Republicans say it's weak but poised for strong recovery). Instead he spoke at every opportunity about the war on terrorism and the need to remove Saddam Hussein from power in Iraq. Saddam, he declared, is "a man who hates America, a man who loves to link up with Al Qaeda, a man who is a true threat to America."

The comments offered a glimpse into the election strategies of both parties. Republicans are counting on Bush's high public approval ratings as commander in chief to convince voters to put more Republicans in office. And party leaders have worked hard to keep voters focused on the administration's drive to use military force against Saddam.

Democrats put the fragile U.S. economy front and center to capitalize on voter concerns about jobs, the falling stock market, and corporate scandals--while avoiding a showdown with Bush over Iraq that could make them look soft on national security.

In a few days, the two parties will know whether their strategies have paid off. In the midterm elections--so called because they come midway through a President's term--voters are choosing one third of the Senate, all 435 members of the House, and 36 state Governors. It will also serve as a kind of referendum on the President and his performance in his first two years on the job.

Why is control of the Congress so important? With their current one-vote majority in the Senate, Democrats can't force their own agenda, but they have been able to stymie many of Bush's most cherished presidential goals. With control of Congress, Bush would win room to maneuver in his ongoing battle with Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein without having to worry about congressional criticism.

In addition, many stalled parts of the Bush agenda would be jump-started. Bush would be able to push through his appointments of about 50 new federal judges, now stalled in the Senate because Democrats found the nominees too conservative. Administration goals to reduce environmental and business regulation would get a boost, as would presidential plans for military spending.

Conversely, a big win for Democrats could force the President to compromise on issues they see as priorities: a program to help senior citizens pay for prescription drugs, and increased unemployment benefits for those put out of work during the economic downturn.

However the voting turns out, the current election is likely to be remembered for how the U.S. confrontation with Iraq changed the campaign. Just two months ago, most polls showed a slight edge going to Democrats, as voters focused on a summer-long series of corporate scandals and disappointing economic news.

THEN CAME SADDAM

But all that began to shift as soon as President Bush told the United Nations that it must take action against Saddam's growing arsenal, and threatened U.S. military action if the UN failed to act. Within weeks, Republican pollsters found that 64 percent of those surveyed said they were likely to support a candidate who supported Bush's Iraq policy.

Those numbers left Democrats extremely frustrated. "Here they have a weakening economy, ... a falling stock market, and corporate crimes, and they can't get any traction," says Marshall Wittmann, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, a conservative research organization. "This is driving them insane."

Both sides carefully jockeyed for position on the war issue. Bush, in a battle with Senate Democrats over details of his proposed Department of Homeland Security, a new government agency to deal with terrorist threats, accused his opponents of not being "interested in the security of the American people." Democrats, spearheaded by Daschle, countered by accusing Bush and the Republicans of trying to use the war on terrorism and the talk of Iraq invasion for political gain--an effort to turn the Republican advantage into a negative.

Democratic party officials were buoyed by a New York Times/CBS News poll a month before the election that showed high anxiety about the U.S. economy among voters, with 57 percent saying they would choose candidates based not on their views of foreign affairs, but on their positions on the economy.

"When you get down to the local districts, voters are going to be making a lot of their decisions on prescription drugs, health care in general, and Social Security," says Towson Fraser, a spokesman for the Republican Party of Florida.

THE GLOVES COME OFF

With so much at stake, both sides have spent the campaign in a gloves-off free-for-all, pushing for every slight advantage. Despite the beating of war drums, many of the debates on the campaign trail have centered on domestic and local issues.

Running against a Republican unknown, New Jersey's senior Senator, Democrat Robert Torricelli, at one point seemed to have all but a lock on re-election--until it was disclosed that federal prosecutors had found credible evidence that Torricelli had taken large illegal gifts from contributors. Just weeks before the election, Democratic leaders pressured him to withdraw and placed a new candidate on the ballot.

Republicans cried foul, but elsewhere weren't above engaging in their own campaign shenanigans. In Louisiana, Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu faces not one but three Republican candidates, based on a quirk in state law that allows multiple candidates. Republicans are hoping to deny Landrieu a 50 percent majority in the election, Which would force a runoff vote in December. Republicans would pour huge resources into unseating her if the Senate majority hangs on the outcome.

Unpredictable local issues could also play a role in determining who holds power on the national stage. In Texas, where the Governor is a Republican running for re-election, an outbreak of household mold that literally rots the walls of houses has led to voter outrage about rate hikes by the state's unregulated insurance industry.

Elsewhere, drought could stamp the outcome of another critical Senate race. Bush used his presidential powers to authorize $752 million in emergency drought aid to mainly Western states in an effort to boost South Dakota Republican Congressman John Thune in his tight race to unseat current Democratic Senator Tim Johnson.

But regardless of party tactics, only the voters know whom they will select to represent them next. "There are so many jokers in the deck and potential wild cards," says Andrew Kohut, director of the Pew Research Center, "that forecasting what the trend might be is fool's work."

DISCUSSION QUESTIONS

* Do you agree with Florida Republican Party spokesman Towson Fraser that in the end, voters are going to be making a lot of their decisions based on prescription drugs, health care in general, and Social Security?

* What strategies might the major political parties employ to encourage more people to vote in midterm elections?

TEACHING OBJECTIVES

To help students understand the issues that are driving the 2002 midterm election campaign.

CLASSROOM STRATEGIES

TEACH THE COVER: Examine the cover. Tell students that the "Kids Are Dying for Help" poster refers to a California proposition to try some juvenile offenders as adults. "No on 203" refers to an Arizona proposition to eliminate bilingual education in public schools. The farm workers' poster refers to labor rights for these workers. In all three cases, citizens exercised their First Amendment right to bring these issues to the attention of voters.

POLL/RESEARCH: Conduct your own opinion poll on campaign issues. Ask: Which is the more important issue facing the U.S. today, the poor economy --specifically the rising unemployment rate--or the fight against terrorism and Iraq's Saddam Hussein? You might have students survey their parents on this question. Students may bring written tallies of parents' responses to class. Compare the results with those reported in the article.

ROLE-PLAY: Have students switch sides. Those who sided with Democrats must support the Republican position on the focus of the campaign; Republican supporters must side with the Democratic position. You might make this a homework assignment. Students can write 100-word statements--all of them titled "Threat to National Security"--in which they explain why Iraq and the war on terrorism are the overriding threats to security or why economic issues, such as unemployment and affordable prescription drugs, should be viewed as critical to national security.

BALANCE OR DEADLOCK?: Look at the chart on page 12 showing the political division in Congress. What does the narrow split suggest about the political Views of voters? Do they want power divided between the major parties?

WEB WATCH: News and views from the Democratic and Republican parties is available at their committee Web sites: www.democrats.org/ and www.rnc.org/.

GRAPH EXERCISE

Midterm Elections: Where Are the Voters--Especially the Young Voters?

Americans don't have an enviable record when it comes to voting. This is especially true of midterm elections. While nearly 60 percent of all of those eligible to vote actually voted in the 2000 presidential race, turnout in the last midterm elections, in 1998, was only 45 percent. The record for voters between the ages of 18 and 24 is worse. In the 2000 race they voted at a rate just barely over half that of older Americans. In midterm elections their turnout rate is much lower than that of the general populace. This graph compares voter turnout in the last three midterm elections, broken down by age group. Use the information in the graph to answer the questions below.

[GRAPHIC OMITTED]

1. What is the difference between the percentage of people in the 18-24 age group who voted in the 1998 elections and the percentage of those in the 45-64 age group?

2. The graph indicates that one age group saw a six percentage point drop in voter turnout between 1990 and 1998. Which group was that?

3. Which of the four age groups has had the most consistent voter turnout for the midterm elections shown?

4. U.S. Census Bureau records show that in the 2000 presidential election voters in the 18-24 age group increased their 1998 turnout by 15 percentage points. What percent of eligible 18-24 voters actually voted in the 2000 presidential elections?

5. Suppose a get-out-the-vote drive on VH1 persuades young people to vote in record numbers in the 2002 midterm elections. What would the 18-24 turnout be if it exceeded the 1998 turnout of the 45-64 group by 10 percentage points?

6. Which two age groups have consistently been the closest to each other in their midterm elections turnouts?

ANSWER KEY

1. 37 percentage points

2. 25-44

3. 65+

4. 32 percent

5. 64 percent

6. 45-64 and 65+