The joy of average.

Byline: TIM CHRISTIE The Register-Guard

Amavor Soltero smiled as he inspected his berries ripening in a field off River Road.

The warm weather, he said, was ideal for the rows of raspberries, boysenberries, blackberries and marionberries he grows on three acres between Santa Clara and Junction City.

The late spring and early summer climate in this part of the Willamette Valley - not too hot, not too wet - "is one of the best weathers you can have," he said.

"This is going to be a good year," he said. "I always have a good year."

Forecasters say the summer of 2002, which began at 6:24 a.m. today, should be normal in the southern part of the valley.

Historically, that means average highs in the low 80s and average lows in the low 50s in July and August, and four times as many clear days as rainy ones. Septembers usually cool off slightly, with average highs in the mid-70s and lows in the high 40s with a little more rain.

The "normal" summer forecast is something of a hedge for forecasters, who have no compelling evidence to indicate that this year will skew far from historical trends.

"For Western Oregon, there's nothing at this point that indicates we can predict above or below normal temperatures or precipitation," said hydrologist Andy Bryant at the National Weather Service in Portland.

The Climate Prediction Center, part of the National Weather Service, forecasts a slightly drier and warmer summer in the Northwest. The Old Farmer's Almanac forecasts a slightly cooler summer with "near-normal rainfall" in the Northwest.

It's far harder to make long-range forecasts for summers than it is for winters, said George Taylor, state climatologist.

During winter, the Northwest is affected by storms and air moving throughout the Northern Hemisphere.

"We get a very large movement of air in the winter because there's such a stark contrast between the tropics and the polar regions," Taylor said.

In the summer, the temperature difference between the poles and the tropics is much less, and therefore, much less air moves back and forth, he said.

"We are affected primarily by local and regional air patterns," he said. "Because of that, we can't see very far in advance. We can look a few days ahead, but that's as good as we can do."

One summertime staple that's back to normal - or close to it: the region's reservoir levels. Last summer, reservoirs were so parched by drought conditions that you could walk across the bottom of Fern Ridge Lake.

Most of a decent winter snowpack is now out of the Cascades, except at the highest elevations, leaving local reservoirs full or nearly so, according to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.

As of midnight Wednesday, Lookout Point Lake was 5 feet shy of full; Cottage Grove and Fall Creek lakes were each 3 feet shy of full; Dorena Lake was 2 feet shy of full; and Fern Ridge was full, the corps said.

Thursday's pleasant weather provided a nice preview for what we can expect this summer. The temperature reached 80 in Eugene, with wispy high clouds and a light breeze.

Jim Farlow was enjoying the sun as he filled up a plastic bucket with sweet succulent strawberries at Harry's Berries U-pick berry farm near Coburg.

The 79-year-old retired logger grew up in Alabama, where it gets so hot that a person can't sleep at night. He moved to Oregon in 1946 and never looked back.

"I like it out there - it's cool at night," he said.

"It's just the right kind of weather for me."

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INSIDE Summer solstice is today. Many find the seasonal marker significant / 1C