The impact of labor market trends of the employment of persons with disabilities.

Anumber of changes have occured in the labor market since 1960 and new trends have emerged that will influence employment in the United States in this new millennium. The extent to which the labor market experience of persons with disabilities reflects these trends are discussed in this article.

The changes in the labor market include: a relative shift from goods-producing occupations and industries to the distribution of services; the increasing demand for highly skilled and highly trained labor and the erosion of demand for those with less skill and training; the emergence of new ways of accomplishing work within the firm; and the emergence of alternative work arrangements throughout the economy (Bell, 1983; Piore and Sabel, 1984; Hirshhorn, 1988; Levy, 1987; Wilson, 1997).

Some of these trends are relatively easy to quantify, such as the growth of jobs in the service sector. Some are more difficult to measure and evaluate, for example the growth of contingent employment arrangements (Belous, 1989; Polivka, 1996), the putative erosion of job security (Nardone, Veum, and Yates, 1997) and the flattening of workplace hierarchies (Osterman, 1988). Many analysts view the sum total of the changes as a dramatic shift in the workplace, and one that may affect profoundly the ability of persons with disabilities to secure and retain employment.

Labor Market Dynamics: 1960 to the Present

Dynamics in Labor Force Participation. The 1950's and 1960's are viewed by some as the halcyon era in the U.S. economy with high growth rates sustaining unprecedented increases in the standard of living and allowing most families to survive on one income, in turn reinforcing the social ethic of the time that women should not work outside the home (Levy, 1987). In 1960, just under 60 percent of the working-age population was in the labor force (Table 1). The overall labor force participation rate increased by more than 12 percent in the interim, having reached almost two-thirds as of 1996.

Gender. This overall increase in labor force participation rates masks substantial differences in participation by gender and age (Table 1). Among all working-age men, labor force participation rates declined by more than 10 percent, but men 55 to 64 experienced an even steeper decline, 22.8 percent. Conversely, among all working-age women, labor force participation rates rose by 57.3 percent, from 37.7 percent in 1960 to 59.3 percent in 1996. Among women 25 to 34, labor force participation rates more than doubled, from 36.0 percent in 1960 to 75.2 percent in 1996. Thus, the overall increase in labor force participation rates represents the net effect of a decline among men, particularly older men, and an increase among women, particulary younger women.

Race. Race plays a part in labor market dynamics and would appear to interact with gender. (1) In the last quarter century, labor force participation rate, increased among all working-age whites by 11.5 percent, but the increase among all working-age African Americans was only 3.7 percent (Table 2) The decrease in labor force participation rates among all working-age white men was only about half that experienced by African American men (5.3 vs. 10.2 percent, respectively), while the increase among white women was far larger than that among African American women (38.7 vs. 22.0 percent, respectively). In 1970, African American men were almost as likely as white men to be in the labor force, but this was no longer the case in 1996. In 1970, African American women had significantly higher labor force participation rates than white women. After the larger increase in labor force participation rates among white women since 1970, the two groups of women have nearly identical labor force participation rates.

Age. Another factor affecting the labor market over the last several decades--and likely to have an even more profound impact on the proportion of the working-age population at risk for work disability in the years to come--has been the dramatic change in the age structure of society as the baby boomers grow old (Table 3). Thus, the proportion of the population 18 to 34 years of age rose substantially between 1960 and 1980, but has since fallen, while the proportion 35 to 44 rose between 1980 and 1996, and the proportion 45 to 54 has just now begun a precipitous increase, to be followed in the decade to come by a substantial rise in the proportion of workers 55 and over.

The significance of age in the labor market can be seen in Table 4, which shows labor force participation rates by age. In 1996, more than 80 percent of persons in each of these age groups--20 to 34, 35 to 44, and 45 to 54--were in the labor force. In each case, these percentages had risen over time as the labor market accommodated the subtancial increase in labor force participation rates among women. The increase in the labor force participation rates of young and middle-aged workers can also be attributed to the baby boomers. From 1960 to 1996, the labor market accommodated an increasing percentage of a substantially larger number of persons.

However, labor force participation rates are much lower among persons 55 to 64 than among those 45 to 54, and declined among persons in the 55 to 64 and the 65 and older age groups throughout most of the last two decades. The decrease in labor force participation rates among persons 55 to 64 before 1990 occurred because more people these ages chose to leave work prior to the ages when Social Security eligibility begins (62) and reaches its maximum (currently 65). Labor force participation rates are lower among persons 55 to 64 at any one point because persons these ages face higher rates of displacement from their jobs and because the prevalence of health problems associated with aging begin to affect a substantial number of people at these ages. As a result of the increased number of persons who are 55 to 64, a higher proportion of the working-ages population will be at risk for the onset of the chronic diseases of the aged, which may reduce the overall labor force participation rate.

Education. As was seen in Table 1, above, the proportion of working-age adults in the labor force rose substantially between 1970 and 1996. The increase in labor force participation rates affected all but those individuals who have not finished high school (Table 5). Moreover, the magnitude of the increase was larger with each increment in education. Thus, labor force participation rates increased among high school graduates by 11.0 percent, among those with some college by 13.4 percent, and among those with a college degree or more, by 19.0 percent. As a result, by 1996, the labor force participation rate among college graduates was almost 50 percent higher than among persons with less than a high school education.

Since 1960, the proportion of the adult population with at least a high school degree has almost doubled (from 41.1 to 81.7 percent), and the proportion with 4 or more years of college has more than tripled (from 7.7 to 23.6 percent) (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1997, 159). Nevertheless, a substantial fraction of the cohorts entering the ages of highest risk for work disability have less than a high school education, including more than 12 percent of those now 35 to 44, more than 13 percent of those now 45 to 54, and more than 22 percent of those now 55 to 64 (ibid, 160). These individuals may face a difficult time maintaining a toehold in the labor market. In addition, about a third of these cohorts have no more than a high school degree. Although the labor force participation rate for high school graduates increased by 11.0 percent overall since 1970, it decreased slightly between 1990 and 1996. If this trend were to continue or accelerate, the number of persons at jeopardy in the labor market would include some of these individuals.

Dynamics in Employment Characteristics. There is little doubt that there has been a fundamental shift in the kind of work done, as reflected in the change in the distribution of occupations and industries. However, analysts disagree on the degree to which there has been a corresponding shift in how work is done. Osterman (1988) noted that throughout much of this century, firms had two kinds of employees: a salaried workforce paid to design and monitor work processes and given relative autonomy to carry out their work and security of employment (the term "white collar" may be applied to such workers); and an hourly wage work force to implement these work processes, given little discretion over how work was carried out, and retained only when the demand for the products justified continued employment (traditionally called "blue collar" workers). Osterman observed that, more recently, many firms were melding the two kinds of jobs: bringing the expertise of those involved in the production of goods and services into the design of work processes, while reducing the security of employment among the white collar workforce.

The signposts for the changes described by Osterman include flattened workplace hierarchies, broadened and variable work tasks for each job, reduced job tenure, increased use of part-time and temporary workers, alternative work arrangements, and higher rates of job displacement.

Industries. Table 6, which shows the change in the number of employees and share of non-agricultural employment among industries since 1960, provides information on the most tangible signpost of the change in the nature of work. In 1960, the goods producing sectors of the Ph.D.econom--mining and construction and manufacturing-accounted for 6.7 percent and 31.0 percent of employment, respectively. Since then, the share of employment accounted for by mining and construction has decreased by about a quarter, and the share accounted for by manufacturing by slightly more than half. Indeed, at a time when total employment more than doubled (datum not in table), the absolute number of manufacturing workers increased by only 8 percent, from 16.8 million in 1960 to 18.2 million in 1996. Thus, as of 1996, the goods producing sectors of the economy accounted for only a fifth of total employment.

Concurrently, there was substantial growth in the share of employment accounted for by the finance, insurance and real estate sectors (18.4 percent, net of the decline from 1990 to 1996) and by the service industry (111.0 percent). Primarily as a result of growth occurring prior to 1980, the share of total employment accounted for by the public administration sector increased by 5.8 percent; since 1980, however, its share has declined by 9.4 percent.

Because the service sector is heterogenous, encompassing the physician's office as well as those who work in private households and engineering firms as well as home cleaning services, it is far more informative to study the employment dynamics within the components of the overall services category. The share of employment in all but the personal services component expanded between 1970 and 1996, with business and repair, entertainment and recreation, and professional services growing by 247.4, 90.0, and 41.9 percent, respectively (Table 7). By 1990, the absolute number of workers in professional services exceeded 30 million, almost a quarter of all non-farm employment. Within the business and repair services component, the absolute number of workers in personnel supply firms (including temporary employment agencies) increased more than five-fold between 1970 and 1996, while the number in the computer and data processing services fields increased more than fourfold (data on absolute number of workers in these specific industries are not in the table).

Occupations. The change in the share of employment among occupations reflects the shift in the overall economy from the production of goods to the production and distribution of services (Table 8). Thus, the share of employees in professional specialty and managerial occupations; technical, sales, and administrative workers; and service workers increased by 30.3, 39.4 and 11.5 percent, respectively, while the share in precision production and craft occupations; operatives, fabricators and non-farm laborer; and farming and fishing occupations decreased by 17.7, 39.0 and 64.0 percent, respectively.

The shift from manufacturing to service occupations does not necessarily mean an absolute reduction in the former. Indeed, in absolute terms, the number of precision production and craft workers, and operatives, fabricators and non-farm laborers is substantially greater now than in 1960, and has been relatively stable since 1980. Among major occupational classifications, only farming and fishing occupations have declined in absolute terms throughout the period covered. In contrast, the absolute number of persons in professional and managerial and technical, sales and administrative occupations has more than doubled (from under 14.6 to 36.5 million in the former and from 14.0 to 37.7 million in the latter), and the number of service workers has increased twofold (from 8.0 to 17.2 million). Absolute growth in the number of professional and managerial workers continues apace, but it would appear that growth is abating among technical, sales and administrative and service workers (the number of workers in the former category increased by less than a million between 1990 and 1996, while the number in the latter increased by just more than a million during this time). The continued growth in professional and managerial occupations, with relative stasis among technical, sales and administrative and service workers, belies the prediction that the American economy would be producing few good jobs and many bad ones (Braverman, 1974; Wright and Singleman, 1982).

Part-Time Employment. The proportion of the employed population working part time has increased steadily since 1970, from 13.2 to 17.4 percent (Table 9). The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) divides part-time employment into voluntary and involuntary components (labeled "non-economic" and "economic" reasons, respectively). Overall, the proportion of all employment that is part-time due to economic reasons increased from 2.8 to 3.4 percent between 1970 and 1996, or by more than 20 percent in relative terms. However, the proportion working part-time for economic reasons has actually decreased from the 4.3 percent level in 1990 due to the improvement in the labor market. In contrast, the proportion working part-time for non-economic reasons increased steadily and grew overall by more than a third since 1970, from 10.4 to 14.0 percent of the employed population.

Terms of Employment. It is frequently claimed that an increasing fraction of all work is not in the traditional mode of being permanent, reasonably secure, in the direct employ of the firm in which the work is done, and with the work done at a worksite maintained by the firm. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has kept abreast of many of the changes in the terms of employment in its data collection efforts, but timetrends are not available for all of them.

Job security is measured by length of time on the job (tenure) and having the expectation of staying on the same job for an additional year (contingency) (Nardone, Veum, & Yates, 1997). With respect to job tenure among men, the overall median has not changed much since the early 1980's. However, this is because the male workforce has aged and older workers have longer tenures. Within each age range, job tenure among men has decreased. Among women, job tenure has increased both because the fraction in older age groups has increased and because tenure for women 35 to 44 and 45 to 55 has increased (U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1997). Thus, the picture for job tenure is a mixed one, with women having unambiguously longer tenures, men having shorter tenures at each age and more men than women being in the ages with longer tenures.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics defines contingent employment three ways: as the proportion of wage and salary workers whose jobs have lasted a year or more but who do not expect it to last another year; the proportion of such workers as well as the self-employed and independent contractors in this situation; and the proportion of both who do not expect their jobs to last another year regardless of how long they have been at those jobs. The proportion meeting each definition declined slightly between 1995 and 1997: for the first definition, from 2.2 to 1.9 percent of all workers; for the second, from 2.8 to 2.4 percent; and for the third, from 4.9 to 4.4 percent (U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1997a). Thus, contingency is reasonably common, but has definitely not increased in the last few years. It should be re-emphasized, however, that the recent decline may be due to the strength of the labor market in the last few years, and not be representative of a long-term trend in security of employment.

Alternative work arrangements include the use of independent contractors, on-call workers, workers provided by temporary help agencies, and workers provided by contract firms. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has collected information on such arrangements only twice, in 1995 and 1997. The proportion of the employed with alternative work arrangements did not change substantially during this 2-year period. As of 1997, 6.7 percent of all workers were independent contractors, 1.6 percent were on-call workers, 1.0 percent worked for temporary help agencies, and 0.6 percent were workers provided by contract firms.

Flexible work arrangements involve the shift from the direct hiring of workers to perform certain functions to the purchase of the services of other firms for those functions. There is no way to be sure that there has been a net expansion in the procurement of services outside the firm because firms may be hiring for new functions while procuring services formerly done within the firm. Instead, the Bureau of Labor Statistics collects information on the proxy measures of the magnitude of employment in industries and occupations that are felt to represent services that could be done outside a firm (Clinton, 1997). Using such measures, it would appear that there has been substantial growth in procurement from outside of firms. The share of total employment in the business services sector has increased threefold since 1972 and one component of this industry-personnel supply--has increased more than sevenfold during this time. In addition, there has been substantial growth in the engineering and management consulting sectors. There is another piece of evidence consistent with the notion that certain functions are being performed by workers not directly hired by firms: firms in a majority of industries have reduced their employment of business support occupations, those that are most likely to be performed by outside contractors.

Change in location of work, from the workplace to home. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has collected information twice on the number of persons who do at least part of their jobs from home, in 1991 and 1997 (U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 1998). The number of persons who do some work at home was slightly more than 21 million (17.8 percent of the workforce) in 1997 and has not increased substantially since 1991. However, an increasing fraction of persons who work at home are paid to do so. Almost two-thirds of persons who work at home are in managerial and professional specialty occupations.

Change in the Internal Structure of Work. The workplace literature suggests a trend toward diffusing authority over decisions about the way work is done throughout the hierarchy, toward increasing use of flexible work groups that coalesce only for the duration of specific projects and toward increasing the mix of tasks done by the individual (Cornfield D, 1987; Osterman, 1988; Kelley, 1990; Hirschhorn, 1991). The evidence for this kind of shift derives from qualitative studies of the shop floor and office and from interviews and case studies of managers and line workers. However, without statistical evidence that such changes are widespread, it is difficult to ascertain what proportion of the workforce has experienced them. In the 1970's, the Department of Labor collected this kind of data in the Quality of Employment surveys; it has not been collected since (Quinn and Staines, 1979; Schwartz, Pieper & Karasek, 1988).

The potential importance of changes in the internal organization of work for persons with disabilities is profound. Flexibility in the pace and schedule of work and autonomy in how work is done have been shown to be strongly correlated with whether or not someone is able to maintain employment (Yelin, et al., 1980). Thus, if the observation that these conditions are more prevalent in work now than in the past were to be true, it might augur an improvement in the employment picture for persons with disabilities. On the other hand, for persons with cognitive, communications and psychological disabilities, the need to interact with a constantly changing array of workgroups and the impermanent working conditions may make it more difficult to work. Although it would be hard to capture these qualitative changes in working conditions in large-scale labor market surveys, they may be more important in determining the employment prospects of persons with disabilities than the more objective changes in employment described above.

Rates of Displacement. The Bureau of Labor Statistics defines job displacement as the loss of a job held on a longterm basis (3 or more years). The BLS has tracked job displacement since the early 1980's (Hippie, 1997). The overall rate of job displacement seems tied to the economic cycle and, thus, rose with the recession in the early 1980's, fell with the recovery late in that decade, rose once again with the recession early in this decade, and has since fallen. However, the composition of displaced workers has changed considerably. In the early years of the BLS data collection efforts, the rate of displacement was much greater in manufacturing industries and in the occupations such as craft workers and operatives that were concentrated in those industries. In the interim, the rate of displacement has grown faster in white collar occupations (and is now almost as large in such occupations as in blue collar ones) and has even begun to spread to rapidly expanding industries, such as the finance, insurance and real estate sectors. Thus, although a large proportion of displacement is due to cyclical changes in the economy, it would appear that a portion of job displacement occurs in successful and expanding sectors. Job displacement is becoming a more generalized strategy of accommodating change in the labor force and is not limited to select occupations and industries facing difficult times.

The Labor Market and Persons with Disabilities

Persons with disabilities have experienced most of the major trends in the labor market over the last several decades, albeit in exaggerated form. In this section, I review the evidence to support this statement. The data on time-trends among persons with disabilities, however, do not cover the same periods as the general labor market data reviewed in the prior section because most federal data series do not collect information on disability status with the same regularity as for characteristics as gender, race and age.

Labor Force Participation Rates. Between 1983 and 1994, labor force participation rates among all working-age persons increased by 4.8 percent (Table 10). Although persons with disabilities continued to have lower labor force participation rates than persons without disabilities in 1994 (51.8 percent and 83.0 percent, respectively), such persons experienced a larger relative increase (6.6 percent) than those without (4.9 percent). Thus, persons with disabilities more than shared in the overall increase in the proportion of working-age adults actually in the labor force.

Gender, Age, and Race. Persons with disabilities also experienced trends in labor force participation by gender to a heightened degree. Thus, while labor force participation rates were increasing 10.8 percent among women without disabilities between 1983 and 1994, women with disabilities experienced an increase of almost twice the magnitude during this time (20.0 percent). Concurrently, men with disabilities experienced a larger decline in labor force participation rates than men without (-2.0 and. -0.1 percent, respectively).

Recall from Tables 2 and 3, above, that the decline in labor force participation rates among men was concentrated among men 55 to 64 and/or among non-white men, particularly such men who are in this age range, and that the increase in labor force participation rates among women was concentrated among women 25 to 34, especially white women who are in this age range. Persons with disabilities experienced each of these trends in a heightened form (Yelin, 1994). Thus, labor force participation rates among men 55 to 64 with disabilities declined to a greater degree than among such men without disabilities, and non-white men these ages with disabilities experienced the largest relative decline in labor force participation of any single group defined by gender, age, race, and disability status. In contrast, young women with disabilities, particularly young white women with disabilities, experienced the largest increase of any single group defined by these four characteristics.

Education. Persons with disabilities are overrepresented among persons with a high school education or less and underrepresented among those with some college or more (data from author's analysis of 1995 Current Population Survey). However, at every level of education, they have lower labor force participation rates than persons without disabilities, even after statistical adjustment for differences in health and functional status and demographic characteristics (Table 11). The difference in labor force participation rates is greater at lower levels of education. For example, the labor force participation rate among persons with disabilities with less than a high school education is about a fifth as great as among such persons without disabilities (12.4 and 67.7 percent, respectively), but persons with disabilities who have some graduate school or more have a labor force participation rate more than half that of persons without disabilities (47.5 and 88.0 percent, respectively). Attaining higher levels of education improves the employment prospects of persons with disabilities to a greater degree than for persons without disabilities, but even when persons with disabilities have gone to graduate school, they still do not achieve as large a return on education as persons without disabilities. Overall, persons with disabilities experience low labor force participation rates both because they have low levels of education and lower returns from every level of education.

Employment Characteristics and Persons with Disabilities. Given employment, do persons with disabilities have access to the same mix of jobs and to the same working conditions as those without disabilities?

Industries. Table 6 shows that three industrial sectors have had a declining share of employment (mining and construction, manufacturing and transportation, utilities and communications), three have had a substantially increasing share (wholesale/retail trade, finance, insurance and real estate and services), and one has had little change, net of an increase prior to 1980 and a decline since then (public administration). Table 12 shows the mix of industries in 1995 among persons with and without disabilities who were employed. There are no clear patterns: Persons with disabilities are underrepresented among two sectors with a declining share of employment (manufacturing and transportation, utilities and communications) and one with an increasing share (finance, insurance and real estate), while having a larger share of overall employment in service industry and in two of the components of this sector (business and repair and personal services). Persons with disabilities have a smaller share of employment in professional services--the largest service industry component-than persons without disabilities.

Occupations. The occupations with an increased share of employment over the last several decades include professional specialty and managerial occupations, technical, sales and administrative workers and service workers, while precision production and craft workers, operatives, fabricators and non-farm laborers, and farming and fishing occupations have had declining shares of employment. With respect to the occupations with an increased share of employment, persons with disabilities are much less likely than those without to be in professional specialty and managerial occupations, they are about as likely to be in technical, sales and administrative occupations, and they are more likely to be service workers (Table 13). With respect to the occupations with a declining share of employment, persons with and without disabilities are equally likely to be craft workers, but persons with disabilities are much more likely to be operatives and to be in farming and fishing occupations.

Part-Time Employment. Persons with disabilities have experienced a disproportionate amount of the increase in part-time employment (Table 14). As of 1995, 36.8 percent of persons with disabilities reported that their employment was part-time, an increase of 31.9 percent since 1981. The increase in part-time employment among persons without disabilities-l.8 percent-was far smaller. Among persons with disabilities, the prevalence of part-time work due to economic reasons rose at least until the early 1990s, but has since fallen. Among persons without disabilities, it has fallen steadily since the mid-1980s. Over the entire period under study, persons with disabilities have experienced a much smaller decline in part-time employment for economic reasons than persons without disabilities-1.6 vs. 11.6 percent.

Persons with disabilities have experienced a substantial increase in part-time employment for non-economic reasons during this decade, leading to an overall increase of 41.7 percent in this measure over the entire period under study. In contrast, the rate of part-time employment for non-economic reasons has not changed much among those without disabilities in this decade and has risen by only 6.5 percent since 1981.

Terms of Employment. Of the measures of the terms of employment reviewed with respect to the entire labor force, above, none is available on an ongoing basis from the Monthly Current Population Survey or the Annual March Supplement to the Current Population Survey, the major source of data on employment in the United States. Instead, the measures--tenure, contingency, flexibility, alternative work arrangements, and work at home--are not collected routinely and, when collected, they are part of infrequent surveys in which respondents are not asked to report disability status. Because of the lack of consistent data on terms of employment among persons with and without disabilities from the Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys, one is forced to use the results of less comprehensive surveys. In one such survey, a random sample of California working-age adults was interviewed in 1996 about working conditions and current employment status. The results indicate that persons with disabilities were more likely to have temporary employment. Paradoxically, they reported longer job tenure, even after adjustment for age and gender. It is possible that they may be locked into jobs because of their disability and the attendant need to maintain benefits, especially employer-provided health insurance. Persons with disabilities were no more likely to work at home, the only measure of work arrangement available in the survey. Finally, compared to persons without disabilities, persons with disabilities were less likely to report high levels of job autonomy and sufficient time to get their jobs done.

Job Displacement and Accession. The bi-annual Bureau of Labor Statistics survey used to establish the rate of job displacement does not include a measure of disability status. To provide a proxy measure of this phenomenon, I have analyzed the Annual March Supplement to the Current Population Survey in which respondents report their employment status for the year prior to the survey as well as for the prior week (Yelin, 1996). Among those who were employed in the year prior to the survey, persons with disabilities are more than three times as likely to report not being employed as of the week before the survey as those without disabilities (39.8 vs. 13.2 percent, respectively). Even after adjustment for health and functional status, demographic characteristics and the nature of the employment in the prior year, persons with disabilities who worked in the year prior to the survey are more than twice as likely to report not being employed as of the prior week as persons without disabilities (31.9 and 13.7 percent, respectively).

Among persons who reported no employment in the year prior to the interview survey, persons with disabilities were only a fifth as likely to be employed as of the week prior to interview as persons without disabilities (2.0 and 10.0 percent, respectively), and adjustment for health and functional status, demographic and prior work history did little to change this result (after adjustment, 2.1 and 9.4 percent of persons with and without disabilities who did not work in the year prior to the survey, respectively, reported that they were employed as of the week prior to the interview).

In a second set of analyses, I correlated the proportion of persons with disabilities employed in an industry in each year with that industry's total share of employment in that year. The results suggest that persons with disabilities are more likely than persons without disabilities to be displaced from industries with a declining share of employment and more likely to obtain jobs in those gaining them (Yelin, 1992).

Finally, in the 1996 California survey described above, persons with disabilities did not report higher rates of job displacement, but they did report that when displacement occurred, it was more likely to result in a major problem in their lives.

Summary of Labor Market Dynamics

This review of overall trends in the labor market and of trends affecting persons with disabilities has yielded a partial description of how things are, not necessarily how they must be. Indeed, the evidence presented in this paper is consistent with the notion that, given the appropriate economic climate, a substantial number of persons with disabilities will enter the labor market and then maintain employment. Because a relatively small proportion of persons with disabilities do work and the exact proportion shifts with changes in the state of the labor market, there would appear to be a reasonable number who could work in the appropriate circumstances.

What is preventing them from doing so? Yelin and Trupin (1997) recently completed an analysis of the factors affecting transitions into and out of employment among persons with and without disabilities. For persons with disabilities, demographic characteristics were the principal factors affecting the probability of entering employment, with those 18 to 24 years of age six times more likely to do so than those 55 to 64 years of age and with whites 40 percent more likely to enter jobs as non-whites. Interestingly, the principal factor affecting whether persons with disabilities maintained employment was the industry in which they worked, while the principal factor affecting whether persons without disabilities did so was their occupation. This suggests that the probability that persons with disabilities will be able to keep working after onset of impairment is determined to a large extent by the welfare of the sectors in which they work, rather than their own characteristics. The welfare of persons without disabilities, in contrast, is tied to a greater extent to their personal background. Expanding industries will find a way to accommodate the needs of their workers with disabilities, level of impairment notwithstanding.

Thus, the question of how to assess the prospects for the employment of persons with disabilities in the years to come cannot be answered abstractly. Instead, it must be answered assuming a strong demand for labor. In addition, it must be asked assuming the presence of reasonable accommodation and strict enforcement of the anti-discrimination clauses of the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990 (West, 1991). The lower rate of employment among persons with disabilities at each level of education suggests that such persons need the assistance of accommodation to take advantage of their training and experience on the one hand and, on the other, that employers may still not hire them, the presence of their training and experience notwithstanding.

Finally, it is difficult to predict the prospects for the employment of persons with disabilities because of the shifts in the kinds of work and in how work is done. Given the rising prevalence of disabilities associated with neurological impairments and mental conditions (Chirikos, 1993), there may continue to be a disjuncture between the functional capacity of persons with disabilities and the demands of jobs for the ability to communicate, concentrate, interact with others, and be flexible in how and when work gets done (Osterman, 1988). This is true even when a job demands the capacity for toting and lifting, but it is especially true in the growth sectors of the economy in which the physical demands of work may be minimal.

Table 1
Labor Force Participation Rates,
by Gender and Age, United States, 1960-1996

               1960   1970   1980   1990   1996
Group            %      %      %      %      %    % Change

All Persons    59.4   60.4   63.8   66.5   66.8      12.5
Men,   18-64   83.3   79.7   77.4   76.4   74.9     -10.1
       55-64   86.8   83.0   72.3   67.8   67.0     -22.8
Women, 18-64   37.7   43.3   51.6   57.5   59.3      57.3
       25-34   36.0   45.0   65.4   73.5   75.2     108.9

Sources: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1981, pg. 381;
Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1997, pg. 397.
Table 2
Labor Force Participation Rates,
by Race and Gender, United States, 1970-1996

Group               1970   1980   1990   1996
                      %     %      %       %    % Change
Whites              60.2   64.1   66.9   67.1      11.5
Men                 80.0   78.2   77.1   75.8      -5.3
Women               42.6   51.2   57.4   59.1      38.7
African Americans   61.8   61.0   64.0   64.1       3.7
Men                 76.5   70.3   71.0   68.7     -10.2
Women               49.5   53.1   58.3   60.4      22.0

Sources: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1991, pg. 407;
Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1997, pg. 397.
Table 3
Age Structure of U.S. Population, 1960-1996

Group         1970   1980   1990   1996
                %      %     %      %     % Change

18-34         21.6   24.4   29.6   28.2      23.2
35-44         13.4   11.3   11.3   15.1      16.4
45-54         11.4   11.4   10.6   10.1      12.2
55-64          8.6    9.1    9.6    8.5       8.1
65 or older    9.2    9.8   11.3   12.5      12.8

Sources: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1984, pg. 31;
Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1997, pg. 15.
Table 4
Labor Force Participation Rates, by Age, United States, 1960-1996

Age           1960   1970   1980   1990   1996
                %      %       %     %      %

20-34         62.0   65.0   77.3   81.4   81.6
35-44         67.3   65.0   79.7   85.7   84.3
45-54         72.1   73.3   74.1   80.9   81.5
55-64         56.4   60.3   55.2   54.8   57.1
65 or older   19.2   16.1   12.1   10.9   11.8

Sources: Author's calculations based on information in:
Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1984, pg. 31;
Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1990, pg. 13;
Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1997, pg. 15, 400
Table 5
Labor Force Participation Rates, by Education Attainment,
United States, 1970-1996

                        1970   1980   1990   1996
                         %       %      %     %     % Change

Less than High School   65.5   60.7   60.7   60.2     -8.1
High School Graduate    70.2   74.2   78.2   77.9     11.0
Some College            73.8   79.5   83.7   83.7     13.4
College Grad or More    73.8   86.1   87.8   87.8     19.0
Gradient                1.13   1.42   1.45   1.46

Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1997, pg. 399;
Table 6
Number of Employees (in millions) and Shares of Non-Agricultural
Employment, by Industry, United States, 1960-1996

Industry                1960   1970    1980    1990   1996   % Change
                                                             in Shares

Mining and               3.6    4.2     5.4     5.8     6.0
Construction            (6.7%)  (6.0%)  (5.9%)  (5.3%)  (5.0%) -25.4

Manufacturing            16.8   19.4     20.3    19.1    18.2
                        (31.0%) (27.3%) (22.4%) (17.4%) (15.3%) -50.7

Transportation,           4.0    4.5      5.2     5.8     6.4
Utilities and           (21.0%) (21.3%) (22.5%) (23.5%) (5.3%) -28.4
Communication

Wholesale/Retail         11.4    15.0     20.3   25.8    28.2
Trade                   (21.0%) (21.3%) (22.5%) (23.5%) (23.6%)  12.4

Finance, Insurance,      2.6     3.7      5.2    6.7     7.0
and Real Estate         (4.9%)  (5.1%) (5.7%)  (6.1%)  (5.8%)   18.4

Services                  7.4     11.6    17.9   27.9    34.4
                        (13.6%) (16.3%) (19.8%) (25.5%) (28.7%)  111.0

Public Administration     8.4     12.6   16.2    18.3    19.5
                        (15.4%) (17.7%) (18.0%) (16.7%) (16.3%)   5.8 *

* Percent change for 1996 vs. 1980 period=-9.4%
Sources: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1981, pg. 394;
Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1997, pp. 415,422.
Table 7
Number of Employees (in millions) and Shares of Non-Agricultural
Employment in Various Service Industries, United States, 1970 -1996

Service Industry         1970       1980          1990

Business and Repair    1.4 (1.9%)  3.9 (4.0%)    7.5 (6.5%)
Personal               4.3 (5.7%)  3.8 (4.0%)    4.7 (4.1%)
Entertainment and
  Recreation           0.7 (1.0%)  1.1 (1.1 %)   1.5 (1.3%)
Professional          12.9 (17.2%) 19.9 (20.7%) 25.4 (21.9%)

Service Industry         1996       % Change
                                    in Shares

Business and Repair    8.1 (6.6%)  247.4
Personal               4.4 (3.5%)  -38.6
Entertainment and
  Recreation           2.4 (1.9%)   90.0
Professional          30.1 (24.4%)  41.9

Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1997, pg. 415.
Table 8
Number of Employees (in millions) and Shares of Employment,
by Occupation, United States, 1960-1996

Occupation                        1960          1970         1980

Professional Specialty and     14.6 (22.1%)  19.4 (24.7%)  26.5 (27.3%)
Managerial Occupations

Technical, Sales, and Adm.     14.0 (21.3%)  18.6 (23.6%)  24.3 (25.0%)
Workers

Service Workers                 8.0(12.2%)    9.7(12.4%)   13.0(13.3%)

Precision Production and        8.6(13.0)    10.2(12.9%)   12.5 (12.9%)
Craft Workers

Operatives, Fabricators, and   15.6 (23.6%)  17.6 (22.4%)  18.4 (18.9%)
Non-Farm Laborers

Farming and Fishing
Occupations                     5.2 (7.8%)    3.3 (4.0%)    2.7 (2.8%)

Occupation                        1990          1996      % Change
                                                          in Shares

Professional Specialty and     30.6 (25.8%)  36.5 (20.8%)  30.3
Managerial Occupations

Technical, Sales, and Adm.     36.9 (31.1%)  37.7 (29.7%)   39.4
Workers

Service Workers                16.0(13.5%)   17.2 (13.6%)   11.5

Precision Production and       13.7 (11.6%)  13.6 (10.7%)  -17.7
Craft Workers

Operatives, Fabricators, and   18.2 (15.2%)  18.2 (14.4%)  -39.0
Non-Farm Laborers

Farming and Fishing
Occupations                     3.5 (2.9%)    3.6 (2.8%)   -64.0

Sources: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1981, pg. 401;
Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1997, pp. 410-412;
and calculations from U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor
Statistics web Site.
Table 9
Part-Time Work for Economic, Non-Economic, and All Reasons
Among Employed Persons, United States, 1970-1996

Reason        1970    1980  1990   1996   % Change
               %       %     %      %

Economic *    2.8     4.1   4.3     3.4     21.4

Non-         10.4    11.0   12.9   14.0     34.6
Economic **

All          13.2    15.1   17.2   17.4     31.8

* Also called "involuntary" reason.

** Also called "voluntary" reason.

Sources: U.S. Department of Labor 1985, pp. 6-7;
U.S. Department of Labor 1988, pp. 710-712.;
U.S. Bureau of the Census 1990, pg. 380; and calculations
using information from: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau
of Labor Statistics Web site.
Table 10
Labor Force Participation Rates of Persons with and
without Disabilities, by Gender, United States, 1983-1994

Group                  1983   1994     %
                         %     %     Change

All Persons            75.0   78.4    4.8
with disabilities      48.6   51.8    6.6
without disabilities   79.1   83.0    4.9

All Men                87.2   86.9   -0.3
with disabilities      60.0   58.8   -2.0
without disabilities   91.5   91.4   -0.1

All Women              63.8   70.6   10.7
with disabilities      38.0   45.6   20.0
without disabilities   67.6   74.9   10.8

Source: Adapted from Trupin, et al., 1997.
Table 11
Labor Force Participation Rate of Persons with and
without Disabilities, II by Educational Attainment,
with Adjustment for Health and Functional Status
and Demographic Characteristics, United States, 1995

                               % Persons with   % Persons without
                                  Disabilities     Disabilities
Less Than High School               12.4               67.7
High School                         23.9               80.3
Some College                        33.5               80.0
College Graduate                    41.6               86.7
Some Graduate School or More        47.5               88.0

Source: Author's analysis of 1995 Current Population Survey
Shares of Employment of Persons with and without Disabilities,
by Industry, United States, 1995

Industry                    %                  %          Ratio
                            With             Without
                            Disabilities   Disabilities

Mining and Construction        9.5            9.5          1.00
Manufacturing                 14.1           16.6           .85
Transp., Utilities and
Communications                 6.4            6.8           .94
Wholesale/Retail Trade         3.9            6.3           .97
Finance, Insurance            39.2           34.8           .62
and Real Estate

Services                      39.2            6.3          1.13

Business and Repair            9.9            5.9          1.68
Personal                        4.9            3.4          1.44
Entertainment and Recreation   1.7            1.7          1.00
Professional                  22.7           23.8           .95
Public Administration          5.3            5.5           .96

Source: Author's anaysis of 1995 Current Population Survey.
Table 13
Shares of Employment of Persons with and without Disabilities, by
Occupation, United States, 1995

Occupation                         %              %          Ratio
                                  With          Without
                               Disabilities   Disabilities

Professional Specialty and         15.7          27.5         .57
Managerial Occupations
Technical, Sales and               28.8          30.0         .96
Administrative Workers
Service Workers                    20.3          13.6        1.49
Precision Production and           10.8          11.0         .98
craft Workers
Operatives, Fabircators, and       20.3          14.7        1.38
Non-Farm Laborers
Farming and Fishing                 3.0           2.6        1.15
Occupations
Armed Forces                        0.3           0.7         .43

Source: Author's analysis of 1995 Current Population Survey.
Table 14
Part-Time Work for Economic, Non-Economic, and All Reasons
Among Employed Persons with and Without Disabilities,
United States, 1980-1995

Reason                         1981   1985   1990   1996      %
                                 %      %     %      %     Changes
Economic

Persons with Disabilities       6.3    7.9    9.1    6.2     -1.6
Persons without Disabilities    4.3    5.2    4.1    3.8    -11.6

Non-Economic

Persons with Disabilities      21.6   20.3   24.7   30.6     41.7
Persons without Disabilities   12.4   11.9   12.4   13.2      6.5

All

Persons with Disabilities       27.9   28.2  33.8   36.8     31.9
Persons without Disabilities    16.7   17.1  16.5   17.0      1.8

Source' Author's analysis of Current Population Survey 1981-1995.

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Author's Note

1. Prior to 1970, published labor market series combined all non-Caucasians into one category. Accordingly, I am able to report racial differences in labor force participation from 1970 to 1996 only.

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Dr. Yelin is Professor of Medicine and Health Policy at the University of California, San Francisco