The future of gay: if recent history is any indication, the lives of gay men and lesbians--from marriage to the military--will be drastically different by the year 2054. Will there even be a word for gay?

Imagine what America would look like if during the past 50 years gay men and lesbians hadn't been shoved into secrecy about their sexuality. What if, since 1954, they'd had the same wide-open, out-of-the-closet lives and the power to affect American culture, law, polities, sports, and media that they have gained in 2004?

Fewer children would await adoption, and more loving couples would have legal marriages. Lawmakers might have taken the AIDS epidemic more seriously when it first appeared. Gay bashing would be a rare crime, and victims Matthew Shepard and Gwen Araujo might still be living. Professional sports teams would have special seating not only for players' opposite-sex spouses but for their same-sex partners. New York City police officers might have been suspended after harassing patrons of the Stonewall Inn, and major newspapers would have run serious headlines about that 1969 event instead of such examples as HOMO NEST RAIDED, QUEEN BEES ARE STINGING MAD. J. Edgar Hoover might have been a grand marshal in Washington, D.C.'s gay pride parade. Lucy Ricardo would have launched her outrageous schemes not with Ethel but with her gay best friend, Will.

In 2004 it is easy to play the "what if" game about the past. Never before has a minority group made such quick progress toward equality.

The past year's developments alone have been stunning. Presidential hopefuls Dennis Kucinich, Carol Moseley Braun, and Al Sharpton spoke out in support of marriage for gay men and lesbians, as did lawmakers such as House minority leader Nancy Pelosi. Gay gymnast Matthew Cusick won a settlement from his former employer, Cirque du Soleil, after being fired due to his HIV-positive status. V. Gene Robinson became the first openly gay bishop to be confirmed by the Episcopal Church. Private employers have been setting up domestic-partner health insurance benefits for gay workers at the rate of three companies a day, according to the gay advocacy group Human Rights Campaign.

These examples make it easier to look 50 years into the future and see the lives of gay men and lesbians in 2054. "I think we'll see more progress in the gay movement in the next 10 years than we saw in the past 50," says Waiter L. Williams, professor of anthropology and gender studies at the University of Southern California, Los Angeles.

Evan Wolfson, director of Freedom to Marry, a national group that advocates for marriage rights for same-sex couples, predicts a scenario in which a student in a rural classroom announces during recess that he's going to marry the boy who sits next to him. There will be no punishment from the teacher or taunts from classmates. After all, the boy might have two moms who are seen frequently at parent-teacher conferences. "We're moving toward a world where our children, nieces, and nephews could say they want to marry someone of the same sex and it will be fine--the answer would be, 'Of course,'" Wolfson says.

Although this schoolhouse scenario has yet to play out regularly in small-town America, cultural experts believe it will happen by 2054. By that time openly gay soldiers could be part of a battalion led by an out lesbian commander. Openly gay priests and ministers in monogamous relationships could conduct services without fear of a schism ripping apart their denominations. After winning the Super Bowl a gay quarterback could scream to TV crews, "I'm going to Disney World with ray boyfriend." The first lady could be the "first woman." By then high school history students might confuse George W. Bush with George Wallace. The proposed Federal Marriage Amendment, which would write a ban on same-sex marriage into the U.S. Constitution, will be a curious footnote in history. So will televangelist Pat Robertson and the ultraconservative James Dobson, the gay-hating, far-right head of Focus on the Family.

"We are on the fast track to acceptance because people around the U.S. know people who are gay or are related to people who are gay and therefore are going to support the same kind of [rights] that others are able to enjoy," Robinson says. "What I hope is that we don't forget where we came from during the struggle."

Robinson spoke to The Advocate inside a Pasadena, Calif., church during an event where various celebrities had showed up to honor him. Attendees included Bradley Whitford, the actor who plays Josh Lyman on NBC's The West Wing. Whitford is straight and happily married to actress Jane Kaczmarek, who plays the mother on Fox's Malcolm in the Middle. However, his history of working around and befriending gay men and lesbians shows what this experience could do for most straight Americans, who at the moment generally don't know what to think about gay marriage or parenting or military service until they meet a gay man or a lesbian.

While growing up in Wisconsin, Whitford had little exposure to gay culture, but his situation changed drastically when he moved to New York City to study theater at the Juilliard School. "Then the majority of people I worked with were gay," Whitford recalls. "And within the environment of the theater, they could live their lives pretty freely." His gay friends wanted to have close and loving relationships, to succeed professionally, to enjoy safe and stable lives. "As a straight guy in the theater, I've spent my life showering with gay men," he says with a shrug. "So when an issue like gays in the military comes up, I say that you've got nothing to worry about. Worry about the grenades."

USC anthropology professor Williams cites another reason for the profound change in attitudes toward gay men and lesbians: In the past a straight couple's ability to procreate was the cornerstone of society. Farms needed all the laborers they could get to produce crops to sustain the population. People without children were seen as drains on resources and, in the extreme, a threat to survival. Gays and lesbians were obvious targets.

That all changed with the new economy, which shifted toward service jobs. More straight couples became self-sufficient, and the need for children decreased. Childless couples were no longer a "threat" to society. They had more disposable income than couples with children and used fewer community resources but still paid taxes. That, Williams argues, has given way to a greater tolerance of gay couples. Survey after survey shows that young people in the United States tend to agree that gay rights should be expanded. The numbers are drastically more positive than those for people who came of age half a century ago.

Where will the biggest move toward equality for gay men and lesbians come in the near future? After the legalization of marriage, it may be in the military. Because of the sheer number of people with connections to those in the service and Americans' virtually unwavering support for men and women in uniform, military policies can have a major impact on society.

For now, the U.S. military's stance on gays remains mired in the controversial "don't ask, don't tell" policy from the Clinton administration. Gay, lesbian, bisexual, and transgendered people can serve only if they don't reveal their orientation. And gay sex remains illegal for all service members. But within the next few decades experts believe the issue will come to the fore again, and a new policy will be instituted. The most likely plan would mirror action taken by the United Kingdom in January 2000 that allowed gays to serve openly in the armed forces as the result of an antidiscrimination ruling by a European court, says Aaron Belkin, assistant professor of political science at the University of California, Santa Barbara.

"Because of that move by the British, our forces are able to see that a military force that we respect and admire can fully function with these policies in place," he says.

In some other countries moves to allow openly gay soldiers to serve in the military have come even before the legalization of same-sex marriage. To many experts, if the United States is able to endorse gay marriage, it's not a stretch to think the military will open up to gays soon afterward. And once thousands of straight soldiers form solid, healthy bonds with gay and lesbian comrades during their years in the service, a mini revolution could take place in various regions of the country--such as parts of the Midwest, the Great Plains, and the Deep South--with economies heavily dependent on military operations and cultures once thought, at least by some, to be impervious to the forces of acceptance and diversity.

"It's sometimes forgotten, the importance that military service is given in terms of being considered a good citizen," Belkin says. "We come from a history where consideration as a first-class citizen was judged by your ability to own land and serve in the armed forces, so it would have a huge impact for the [antigay] policy of our country's largest employer to change."

As GLBT culture becomes accepted, as it becomes mainstream, it will no doubt cease to be seen as special or unusual. Some will mourn the loss of a distinctive gay identity, but others will see this phenomenon as a signal that the civil rights movement is nearing its goals.

For them, success will mean that cities have few strictly gay neighborhoods, gay bars, and gay churches. Many same-sex couples will want to leave their urban lives for the green lawns of suburbia. Like straight parents, they'll want less pollution, better schools, and less congestion. Gay-themed TV shows, movies, and music, now reserved for cable and other specialized outlets, will likely be a staple of broadcast networks, multiplexes, and major labels, and no one will bat an eye at fictional portrayals of same-sex relationships. The words gay and lesbian could fall into disuse in the United States. In 50 years it may seem as silly to define your friends by their sexuality as defining them by their hair color does in 2004.

Hudson has written for The Detroit News and Knight Ridder newspapers.