The future for formats: hybridization.

What kinds of formats are finding fortune, and how can they be built to last?

The recent stunning success of Fox's reality series Joe Millionaire has prompted a few questions among formats execs: how long will reality reign, is dating the most promising format, and, most importantly, what now? Based as it was on a surprise ending, how can a show like Joe be sold internationally and brought back to life for a second season?

Michel Rodrigue, president and CEO of Canada's Distraction Formats, had no idea. "It's dead! How can you bring a show based on lies, based on a surprise, to other countries? The cat came out of the bag. It was a wonderful show, but Fox didn't think before they did it. They killed it for the rest of the world."

Malcolm Allsop, controller, format sales, Granada Media, agreed. "Joe Millionaire was a paradox: It was an enormous hit, but it's based on one big joke, one big scam. It will probably spawn imitators, but not in terms of its form, only in terms of doing one, big, single hit. But how can [Joe] be resurrected?"

And yet, Fox is claiming Joe will return and will be sold to other countries. Said Daniela Welteke, senior vp, international programming, Fox Worldwide Productions, "We are preparing other versions, with other twists. We've been discussing it for a long time, even when the official word was still that this was a one-off." Of course, the nature of the program meant Welteke couldn't say much more: "It's an impossible conundrum. We have ideas, but we can't talk about them, because the show will still be based on surprises."

Mike Morley, executive director of international licensing for Holland's Endemol, believes it is possible to extend the life of Fox's format: "They could make [Joe] work again. It will transport to other territories where the viewing public isn't as cognizant of the format."

Rodrigue explained that a format is not a format "until it's been a success and has ratings. A format is something that is developed; it doesn't have to be developed. Before it's been on air and had success, it's just a paper format, or a concept -- and at that stage, it's not something I want to put in my catalogue."

After all, contended Rodrigue, "formats are an assurance. Otherwise, people would just buy an idea locally."

Allsop agreed. "All the formats we present have been on air, they've been tried. They are more than an idea on paper. They have a ratings track record, which is what buyers and co-producers want."

NBC Enterprises executive vice president, Jerry Petry, said that his company "saw success right out of the box" with programs like Meet My Folks because they had already grabbed huge ratings for the network. "It's much easier to sell proven programming than to sell a format that hasn't really found a home yet." NBC Enterprises director of international sales, Leslie Jones, added that, "We're basically an upscale boutique of programming. Buyers know the quality they're getting . . . and they can take advantage of the huge marketing machine of NBC."

But Petty warned that "eventually -- and we may be approaching that point soon -- there may be a glut, or oversupply, of formats, be it game shows, dating shows, reality, etc. There's a parallel with what happened with the sales of scripted programming," he explained. There are productions for seven [U.S.] broadcast networks - and for the cable nets doing original programming - being fed overseas, plus U.K and Australian productions, plus local productions. There is just an oversupply of scripted programs, and only the strong are surviving. A lot of shows are not selling, not getting good time slots, not generating income. Now reality is the hot trend, but it may spiral to a point of huge oversupply, too. Only the ones that are performing will survive."

Tepuy's Maria Alicia Parkerson said that while "topics may burn out, the format business will not. The business is constantly changing with the times. This year talent shows were big, next year, God knows what, maybe a game show revival -- until that burns out. But there will always be something else, something new to take over."

Jones took a similar view: "The genre will do well as long as viewers can differentiate between what's being offered. If things start to look the same, they may say, 'We've had enough of that.' But the genre is here to last. There just may be more or less [formatsjj at any given time."

"Some ideas have been on the air a very long time," said MTV International's Carina Simons. "I believe the new formats we see will have difficulty lasting for 15-20 years, as the world is changing -- and the viewers are much more demanding. We are seeing formats being reshaped and modernized, so if there is a basic really strong plot, then a format can have extended life.... But we are also seeing a lot of formats lasting only one or two seasons.

According to Morley, there are only two types of formats that can't be extended: "flops... and those that are totally dependent on the celebrities that drive it. In that case, if he or she doesn't want to continue, it may not be transportable to another celebrity. But otherwise, there are always new twists you can put on a format to keep it going."

It seems that the future direction of formats will be hybridization -- a mixing together of all the current format types, which include game shows, dating shows, competition series and scripted comedies, among others.

"The truth of today's market," said Morley, is that all the genres have been crossed. You've had sitcom/reality, you've had factual/entertainment/reality, you've even had dramas mixed with reality. Everything is a hybrid. The only purity is to start with a business model. You need a show that can play internationally, have sustainability, and generate revenue.

Rodrigue agreed: "The future of formats lies in the evolution of all the genres that already exist. There will be a refinement of reality. TV is a mirror of society, and people like to look at themselves in the mirror. Other types of formats -- game shows, dating shows -- will become more realistic. They will all blend."

In Allsop's view, the formats biz is always cyclical: "You cannot separate the market from the world situation. After 9/11, everyone wanted to feel good. If there is a conflict in Iraq, the same thing will happen, but in spades. People will be looking for healing and for the positives. You'll see more shows where people are voted in instead of out, or where the best things people can do are the focus, rather than the worst things they can do."

Petry added that strategizing is central to keeping formats strong: "We've been smart in the U.S. about only ordering a limited number of episodes at a time. We're not burning them our as quickly anymore, like with [Who Wants to Be a] Millionaire in the beginning of all this. We've also paid close attention to timing, putting [formats] in slots where they don't compete against each other. Remember, most of these shows have not gone head-to-head. . . . Imagine what might happen if they did."

Concluded Morley, "Properly watched and looked after, [formats] will flourish for a very long time. However, their survival depends upon timely change, recognition of the environment they are in and the trends influencing both audiences and businesses."