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The exposure-response curve for ozone and risk of mortality and the adequacy of current ozone regulations.


Time-series analyses have shown that ozone is associated with increased risk of premature mortality, but little is known about how [O.sub.3] affects health at low concentrations. A critical scientific and policy question is whether a threshold level Noun 1. threshold level - the intensity level that is just barely perceptible
intensity, intensity level, strength - the amount of energy transmitted (as by acoustic or electromagnetic radiation); "he adjusted the intensity of the sound"; "they measured the
 exists below which [O.sub.3] does not adversely affect mortality. We developed and applied several statistical models to data on air pollution, weather, and mortality for 98 U.S. urban communities for the period 1987-2000 to estimate the exposure-response curve for tropospheric [O.sub.3] and risk of mortality and to evaluate whether a "safe" threshold level exists. Methods included a linear approach and subset, threshold, and spline In computer graphics, a smooth curve that runs through a series of given points. The term is often used to refer to any curve, because long before computers, a spline was a flat, pliable strip of wood or metal that was bent into a desired shape for drawing curves on paper. See Bezier and B-spline.  models. All results indicate that any threshold would exist at very low concentrations, far below current U.S. and international regulations and nearing background levels. For example, under a scenario in which the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's 8-hr regulation is met every day in each community, there was still a 0.30% increase in mortality per 10-ppb increase in the average of the same and previous days' [O.sub.3] levels (95% posterior posterior /pos·ter·i·or/ (pos-ter´e-er) directed toward or situated at the back; opposite of anterior.

pos·te·ri·or
adj.
1. Located behind a part or toward the rear of a structure.
 interval, 0.15-0.45%). Our findings indicate that even low levels of tropospheric [O.sub.3] are associated with increased risk of premature mortality. Interventions to further reduce [O.sub.3] pollution would benefit public health, even in regions that meet current regulatory standards and guidelines guidelines,
n.pl a set of standards, criteria, or specifications to be used or followed in the performance of certain tasks.
. Key words: mortality, ozone, regulations, threshold. doi:10.1289/ehp.8816 available via http://dx.doi.org/ [Online 23 January 2006]

**********

Tropospheric ozone is a common urban area pollutant pol·lut·ant
n.
Something that pollutes, especially a waste material that contaminates air, soil, or water.
 linked to numerous harmful health effects, including reduced lung function, increased frequency of respiratory symptoms, and development of asthma [Broeckaert et al. 1999; Brunekreef and Holgate 2002; McConnell et al. 2002; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), independent agency of the U.S. government, with headquarters in Washington, D.C. It was established in 1970 to reduce and control air and water pollution, noise pollution, and radiation and to ensure the safe handling and  (EPA EPA eicosapentaenoic acid.

EPA
abbr.
eicosapentaenoic acid


EPA,
n.pr See acid, eicosapentaenoic.

EPA,
n.
) 1996]. Recent meta-analysis and time-series studies have linked short-term [O.sub.3] exposure to premature mortality (Anderson et al. 2004: Bell et al. 2004, 2005; Huang et al. 2005; Ito et al. 2005; Levy et al. 2005), but the exposure-response curve for [O.sub.3] remains unknown. More than 100 million people in the United States United States, officially United States of America, republic (2005 est. pop. 295,734,000), 3,539,227 sq mi (9,166,598 sq km), North America. The United States is the world's third largest country in population and the fourth largest country in area.  live in areas that exceed the current health-based U.S. National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standards ) for [O.sub.3] (U.S. EPA 2004). Elevated concentrations of [O.sub.3] are also a growing concern for rapidly developing nations with rising emissions of [O.sub.3] precursors from expanding transportation networks.

The U.S. EPA is currently reviewing the scientific evidence on [O.sub.3] and health to determine if the current NAAQS (80 ppb ppb
abbr.
parts per billion
 for the daily 8-hr maximum) should be revised to meet the goal mandated in the Clean Air Act Amendments (1990) to protect human health with an "adequate margin of safety" (U.S. EPA 1997). There are several critical questions regarding the association between [O.sub.3] and mortality as the current NAAQS is reexamined: Can [O.sub.3] affect mortality even at low levels? Are current regulations sufficiently stringent to prevent premature mortality? Is there an attainable threshold [O.sub.3] level that does not affect mortality, and if so, is it below current regulatory limits? Evidence relevant to these questions can be obtained by estimating the exposure-response curve for [O.sub.3] and mortality. The shape of this curve can provide a basis for a) understanding the impacts of low levels of [O.sub.3] pollution on health, b) assessing the adequacy of regulatory standards, c) designing other health-based studies on [O.sub.3], d) estimating the health consequences associated with emissions scenarios and policies (e.g., Hubbell et al. 2005), and e) assessing how climate change might affect human health through altered [O.sub.3] levels (e.g., Knowlton et al. 2004).

Materials and Methods

Data and hierarchical model In a hierarchical data model, data are organized into a tree-like structure. The structure allows repeating information using parent/child relationships: each parent can have many children but each child only has one parent. . To investigate the exposure-response relationship between [O.sub.3] and mortality, we applied several modeling structures to daily time-series data on all-cause nonaccidental mortality, weather (temperature and dew point dew point: see dew. ), and [O.sub.3] pollution levels for the period 1987-2000 for 98 large U.S. urban communities (Figure 1). The communities are listed in the Appendix and consist of urban areas based on a county or a set of contiguous counties. Our database includes > 40% of the total U.S. population and is part of the National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS NMMAPS National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study ) (Daniels et al. 2000, 2004; Dominici et al. 2000; Samet et al. 2000a, 2000b, 2000c). We obtained air pollution data by request from the U.S. EPA, and weather data from the U.S. National Climatic Data Center.

[FIGURE 1 OMITTED]

We used measurements from ambient monitors as a surrogate surrogate n. 1) a person acting on behalf of another or a substitute, including a woman who gives birth to a baby of a mother who is unable to carry the child. 2) a judge in some states (notably New York) responsible only for probates, estates, and adoptions.  for community-level exposure. The measure of exposure was the average of the same and previous days' [O.sub.3] levels (lag [bar.01]). First, 24-hr averages were calculated for each day within each community, and then the lag [bar.01] concentrations were calculated. The use of any single day's [O.sub.3] level as the exposure metric would underestimate the relationship between [O.sub.3] and mortality (Bell et al. 2004). We aggregated measurements from multiple monitors within a community using a 10% trimmed mean to estimate a community-level exposure.

We obtained mortality data by request from the National Center for Health Statistics National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) is part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), which is part of the United States Department of Health and Human Services.

NCHS is the United States' principal health statistics agency.
. The mortality outcome is the number of daily deaths within the community excluding nonresidents and excluding those caused by injuries and other external causes corresponding to International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision (ICD-9) [World Health Organization (WHO) 1978], codes 800 and above, and International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) (WHO 1993), codes S and above. Additional information on the generation of the air pollution data set and the entire database is available through the Internet-Based Health & Air Pollution Surveillance System (iHAPSS) (iHAPSS 2006).

We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to evaluate the relationship between ambient [O.sub.3] levels and mortality rates within each community (community-specific relative rate estimate) and to combine information across communities to produce a national average relative rate estimate, accounting for the uncertainty of each community's relative rate (Dominici et al. 2000; Everson and Morris 2000). The first stage estimates the relationship between short-term exposure to [O.sub.3] and daily nonaccidental mortality rates within each community, using a Poisson regression In statistics, the Poisson regression model attributes to a response variable Y a Poisson distribution whose expected value depends on a predictor variable x, typically in the following way:

 model (McCullagh and Nelder 1989) of the form:

log([[mu].sup.c.sub.t] = [[beta].sup.c][x.sup.c.sub.t] + [y.sup.c] [DOW.sub.t] + ns([time.sub.t],7/year) + ns([T.sup.c.sub.t],6) + ns([T.sup.c.sub.t-1,t-3],6) + ns([D.sup.c.sub.t],3) + ns([D.sup.c.sub.t-1,t-3],3) + interaction terms for age and time, [1]

where [[mu].sup.c.sub.t] is the expected number of deaths for community c on day t, based on an over-dispersed Poisson distribution A statistical method developed by the 18th century French mathematician S. D. Poisson, which is used for predicting the probable distribution of a series of events. For example, when the average transaction volume in a communications system can be estimated, Poisson distribution is used ; [x.sup.c.sub.t] is the average of the same and previous days' daily [O.sub.3] concentrations in community c on day t; [DOW.sub.t] is the categorical That which is unqualified or unconditional.

A categorical imperative is a rule, command, or moral obligation that is absolutely and universally binding.

Categorical is also used to describe programs limited to or designed for certain classes of people.
 variable for day of the week on day p, ns([time.sub.t],7/year) is the natural cubic spline function of calendar time with 7 degrees of freedom per year; ns([T.sup.c.sub.t],6) is the natural cubic spline function for temperature with 6 degrees of freedom; ns([T.sup.c.sub.t-1,t-3],6) is the natural cubic spline function of the average of the 3 previous days' temperature (adjusted for current day temperature); ns([D.sup.sub.t],3) is the natural cubic spline function for dew point with 3 degrees of freedom; and ns([D.sup.c.sub.t-1,t-3], 3) is the natural cubic spline function of the average of the 3 previous days' dew point (adjusted for current day dew point). Interaction terms for age and time are the interaction terms between natural cubic spline functions of time- and age-specific indicators (< 65, 65-74, and [greater than or equal to] 75 years).

In the first stage, we estimated the effect of [O.sub.3] on mortality for each community, [??].sup.c], (an estimate of the true community-specific relative rate, [[beta].sup.c] and the corresponding variance [??].sup.c]. We assume:

[??].sup.c]|[[beta].sup.c],[[??].sup.c] - N([[beta].sup.c], [[??].sup.c]), [2]

[[beta].sup.c]|[mu],[[tau].sup.2] ~ N([mu],[[tau].sup.2] [3]

where p is the true national average relative rate and [[tau].sup.2] is the variance of the true community-specific relative rates, [[beta].sup.c]. Sensitivity analyses and characteristics of the first-stage statistical model for confounding confounding

when the effects of two, or more, processes on results cannot be separated, the results are said to be confounded, a cause of bias in disease studies.


confounding factor
 adjustment have been explored for particulate matter particulate matter
n. Abbr. PM
Material suspended in the air in the form of minute solid particles or liquid droplets, especially when considered as an atmospheric pollutant.

Noun 1.
 (PM), with results indicating that national average estimates are robust to model specification for weather and seasonal confounding (Peng et al. 2005; Welty and Zeger 2005). Earlier analysis showed national-average and community-specific estimates for [O.sub.3] and mortality to be robust to inclusion of [PM.sub.10] (PM with an aerodynamic diameter Drug particles for pulmonary delivery are typically characterized by aerodynamic diameter rather than geometric diameter. The velocity at which the drug settles is proportional to the aerodynamic diameter, da.  < 10 [micro]m) in the first-stage model (Bell et al. 2004). Results were also robust to exclusion of days with high temperature (Bell et al. 2004).

As a second stage, we generated a national relative rate estimate that accounts for the statistical uncertainty of each community's relative rate estimate and for the variability across communities of the true relative rates. We fit this two-stage normal-normal model by use of a two-level normal independent sampling estimation (TLNise 2006) with non-informative priors (Everson and Morris 2000).

Using this two-stage approach, we performed four analyses that make different modeling assumptions about the community-specific exposure-response curve for [O.sub.3] and mortality. Under each analysis, we estimated a national relative rate and/or a national exposure--response curve by combining information across the 98 communities.

Linear approach. For the first analysis, the linear approach, we estimated a linear association between the log of the expected mortality rate and [O.sub.3] levels as described in Equation 1. This model assumes that any change in [O.sub.3] concentration, even at very low levels, can be associated with mortality. For example, a 10-ppb increase in [O.sub.3] levels from 5 to 15 ppb would lead to the same percentage increase in mortality as a 10-ppb rise from 50 to 60 ppb. This is the modeling approach used in most epidemiologic studies epidemiologic study A study that compares 2 groups of people who are alike except for one factor, such as exposure to a chemical or the presence of a health effect; the investigators try to determine if any factor is associated with the health effect  of air pollution and in most health and impact assessments of air pollution policies. We then relaxed this assumption of linearity across the entire range of [O.sub.3] levels with the three approaches described below.

Subset approach. Under the second analysis, the subset approach, we estimated a linear relationship between the log of the expected mortality rate and [O.sub.3] levels as in Equation 1 but using a subset of the data including only days with lag [bar.01] [O.sub.3] levels below a specified concentration, s. We performed this analysis for values of (jargon) for values of - A common rhetorical maneuver at MIT is to use any of the canonical random numbers as placeholders for variables. "The max function takes 42 arguments, for arbitrary values of 42". "There are 69 ways to leave your lover, for 69 = 50".  s ranging from 5 to 60 ppb. Under this approach, we assume that "safe" [O.sub.3] levels are those lower than the specific s value that leads to lack of evidence of an association between [O.sub.3] and mortality.

We also used the subset approach to assess the relationship between [O.sub.3] and mortality under several idealized i·de·al·ize  
v. i·de·al·ized, i·de·al·iz·ing, i·de·al·iz·es

v.tr.
1. To regard as ideal.

2. To make or envision as ideal.

v.intr.
1.
 policy scenarios in which various [O.sub.3] regulations and guidelines were met every day in each community. Because [O.sub.3] regulations are expressed in different metrics metrics Managed care A popular term for standards by which the quality of a product, service, or outcome of a particular form of Pt management is evaluated. See TQM. , we proceeded in three steps. First, we used hourly [O.sub.3] concentrations to calculate daily [O.sub.3] levels under the same metric specified by the standard (e.g., daily 8-hr maximum or daily 1-hr maximum). Second, we constructed a subset of the data set that includes only days that meet the regulatory standard or guideline guideline Medtalk A series of recommendations by a body of experts in a particular discipline. See Cancer screening guidelines, Cardiac profile guidelines, Gatekeeper guidelines, Harvard guidelines, Transfusion guidelines. . For example, for the U.S. EPA [O.sub.3] standard, we first calculated a daily time series of 8-hr maximum [O.sub.3] levels, and then we constructed a subset of the data set that only includes days with an 8-hr maximum [O.sub.3] level < 84 ppb (U.S. EPA 1997). Third, using only days that met the standard, we estimated the percentage increase in mortality associated with a 10-ppb increase in lag [bar.01] [O.sub.3] levels on average across the 98 communities, with the 95% posterior interval, which is the Bayesian analogue of the 95% confidence interval confidence interval,
n a statistical device used to determine the range within which an acceptable datum would fall. Confidence intervals are usually expressed in percentages, typically 95% or 99%.
. This strategy allows us to analyze the subset of days that meet a regulatory requirement Regulatory requirements are part of the process of drug discovery and drug development. Regulatory requirements describe what is necessary for a new drug to be approved for marketing in any particular country.  using the metric specified in the standard but to present results with a single metric for the exposure variable (lag [bar.01] of the 24-hr averages) to maintain a common interpretation of the relative rate estimates.

The NAAQS for [O.sub.3] is "80 ppb" for the daily 8-hr maximum, but U.S. EPA regulations specify that values between 80 and 84 ppb can be rounded down and are not considered exceedances (U.S. EPA 1997). Thus, for our analysis of the NAAQS, we considered a standard of 84 ppb for the daily 8-hr maximum. Regulations generally do not require every monitor to meet the standard every day. For example, a standard can allow a specified number of exceedances and require that a certain percentile percentile,
n the number in a frequency distribution below which a certain percentage of fees will fall. E.g., the ninetieth percentile is the number that divides the distribution of fees into the lower 90% and the upper 10%, or that fee level
 (e.g., 98th) meet the requirement on a 3-year average. In actual compliance with a regulatory standard for a given area, the levels of pollution would follow an uneven spatial distribution (U.S. EPA 2005). Our analysis considers a more stringent application in that it incorporates only days with [O.sub.3] levels at or below the specific standard for both the same and previous days. However, the regulatory standard requires compliance from every monitor, whereas this analysis considers averages across communities rather than individual monitor exceedances.

Threshold approach. If a threshold (h) exists, we would expect to detect an association between [O.sub.3] and mortality for [O.sub.3] levels > h but not for [O.sub.3] levels < h. Our threshold approach has the same structure of Equation 1, but with the pollution term replaced by

([x.sup.c.sub.t]-h), [4]

where

([x.sup.c.sub.t]-h).sub.+] = ([x.sup.c.sub.t]-h) if [x.sup.c.sub.t] [greater than or equal to] h [5] = 0 otherwise.

Under this model, we assume no association between [O.sub.3] and mortality for days with [O.sub.3] concentrations below h and a linear relationship for days with [O.sub.3] levels above h. We performed this analysis for values of h ranging from 0 to 60 ppb at increments of 5 ppb. For each community-specific model and threshold level (h), we calculated the Akaike Information Criterion Akaike's information criterion, developed by Hirotsugu Akaike under the name of "an information criterion" (AIC) in 1971 and proposed in Akaike (1974), is a measure of the goodness of fit of an estimated statistical model. It is grounded in the concept of entropy.  (AIC AIC Association des Infermières Canadiennes. ) (Akaike 1973) as

[AIC.sup.c](h) = deviance Conspicuous dissimilarity with, or variation from, customarily acceptable behavior.

Deviance implies a lack of compliance to societal norms, such as by engaging in activities that are frowned upon by society and frequently have legal sanctions as well, for example, the
 + 2(number of parameters). [6]

Note that the number of parameters can differ by urban community because of the varying frequencies with which [O.sub.3] is measured and the variables for time. We then calculated the average AIC for each h value as

[bar.AIC](h) = 1/N [N.summation summation n. the final argument of an attorney at the close of a trial in which he/she attempts to convince the judge and/or jury of the virtues of the client's case. (See: closing argument)  over (c=1)] [AIC.sup.c](h), [7]

where n = number of communities (98). The rationale for this approach is that if an [O.sub.3] threshold exists, the threshold approach with the appropriate value for h will have the best fit and therefore the minimum [bar.AIC](h) (Akaike 1973).

Spline approach. Under the fourth analysis, the spline approach, we allow the relationship between [O.sub.3] and mortality to fluctuate for different ranges of pollution levels, using a nonlinear A system in which the output is not a uniform relationship to the input.

nonlinear - (Scientific computation) A property of a system whose output is not proportional to its input.
 function of [O.sub.3]. This model can be defined as Equation 1 but replacing [[beta].sup.c][x.sup.c.sub.t] with ns([x.sup.c.sub.t]), where ns is a natural cubic spline of [O.sub.3] levels (Daniels et al. 2000, 2004; Dominici et al. 2002). Boundary knots were specified at 0 and 80 ppb, with interior knots at 20 and 40 ppb. The spline approach extends the linear approach because here the relative rate corresponding to a 10-ppb increase in [O.sub.3] levels from 5 to 15 ppb is allowed to differ from the relative rate corresponding to a 10-ppb increase from 50 to 60 ppb. Visual inspection of the estimated exposure-response curve can provide evidence about whether a safe level exists and at what concentration.

Results

We found that daily increases in ambient [O.sub.3] levels were significantly associated with daily increases in the number of deaths, on average, across the 98 U.S. communities. Specifically, under the linear approach, we found that the percentage increase in all-cause mortality associated with a 10-ppb increase in the lag [bar.01] [O.sub.3] levels was 0.32% (95% posterior interval, 0.17-0.46%). We also found that the largest relative rate estimates occur on more recent days: the percentage increases (95% posterior intervals) in all-cause mortality associated with a 10-ppb increase in lag [bar.01] daily [O.sub.3] levels were 0.25% (0.12 to 0.38%), 0.18% (0.07 to 0.30%), 0.14% (0.03 to 0.26%), and 0.04% (-0.07 to 0.16%) for single-day lags of 0, 1, 2, and 3 days, respectively. The community-specific maximum likelihood estimates under the linear approach displayed no association with the communities' long-term [O.sub.3] concentrations over the study period, as tested by correlation and weighted second-stage regression.

Our results show that daily increases in ambient [O.sub.3] were significantly associated with daily increases in the number of deaths, on average, across the 98 U.S. communities for the idealized policy scenarios under which every community meets current [O.sub.3] regulatory standards and guidelines (California Environmental Protection Agency The California Environmental Protection Agency (Cal/EPA) was created in 1991 by Governor Pete Wilson, through an executive order.[1] The agency combined six board, departments, and offices into one cabinet-level office:[2]
 2005; Canadian Council Canadian Council may refer to:

In aviation:
  • Canadian Airports Council, the Canadian trade association for Canada's airports
  • Canadian Aviation Regulation Advisory Council, a public consultative body involved in creating the Canadian Aviation Regulations
 of Ministers of the Environment 2000; European Commission European Commission, branch of the governing body of the European Union (EU) invested with executive and some legislative powers. Located in Brussels, Belgium, it was founded in 1967 when the three treaty organizations comprising what was then the European Community  2002; U.S. EPA 1997; WHO 2000) for every day of the study period, 1987-2000 (Table 1). For example, the percentage increase in all-cause mortality associated with a 10-ppb increase in lag [bar.01] [O.sub.3] levels was 0.30% (0.15-0.45%) when we used a data set including only days with a daily 8-hr maximum [O.sub.3] concentration lower than U.S. [O.sub.3] regulations. We also found that daily increases in ambient [O.sub.3] exposure are linked to premature mortality under compliance with other [O.sub.3] regulations, including some more stringent than the U.S. standards. In summary, these results indicate that current regulations, even California's new, more stringent standards, are not sufficiently low to provide complete protection against the risk of premature mortality from [O.sub.3].

Daily changes in ambient [O.sub.3] were significantly associated with daily changes in the number of deaths, on average, across the 98 U.S. communities, even when we used data that include only days with lag [bar.01] average [O.sub.3] levels < 15 ppb. Figure 2 shows the estimated percentage increase in mortality for a 10-ppb increase in the lag [bar.01] [O.sub.3] level for different values of s. National relative rate estimates for s values ranging from 35 to 60 ppb are similar to the ones obtained by using all data. The 95% posterior interval increases as s is lowered because of the decreasing sample size. For example, at an s value of 40 ppb, 30% of days are excluded from analysis, on average, across the 98 communities. At an s of 20 ppb, 73% of days are excluded. The estimates decline and lose significance only when s is equal to very low concentrations ([less than or equal to] 10 ppb). Therefore, the subset approach suggests that a "safe" [O.sub.3] level would be lower than approximately 10 ppb, for the lag [bar.01] daily [O.sub.3] level, which is roughly 15-19 ppb for the maximum 8-hr average. However, relative rate estimates for s [less than or equal to] 10 ppb have large statistical uncertainty because of the very small number of days with [O.sub.3] concentrations so low. In fact, 73 communities were excluded entirely at an s of 5 ppb because of insufficient data.

[FIGURE 2 OMITTED]

Results from the threshold and spline approaches are consistent with those from the subset approach and provide evidence that a "safe" [O.sub.3] level can only exist at very low concentrations. We found that the model fit under the threshold approach for values of h from 5 to 60 ppb never provides more than a nominal improvement (< 1% difference in the [bar.AIC]) over the model fit under the linear approach (analogous to the threshold approach with h = 0) for the national average and each individual community. In other words Adv. 1. in other words - otherwise stated; "in other words, we are broke"
put differently
, a model that allows for a "safe" [O.sub.3] level fit the data only marginally better than a model that assumes any level of [O.sub.3] pollution, even low concentrations, can be associated with mortality. The spline approach indicates that the national average exposure-response curve obtained using natural cubic splines is near horizontal, indicating the lack of evidence for an association, only at the very low concentrations (from 0 to ~10 ppb) and then becomes approximately linear at higher concentrations (Figure 3).

[FIGURE 3 OMITTED]

Discussion

In summary, our nationwide study provides strong and consistent evidence that daily changes in ambient [O.sub.3] exposure are linked to premature mortality, even at very low pollution levels, including an idealized scenario of complete adherence to current [O.sub.3] regulations. We also found robust evidence of this relationship between [O.sub.3] exposure and mortality when we used data that included only [O.sub.3] levels nearing background concentrations, which typically range from 10 to 25 ppb (Fiore et al. 2003, 2004). Therefore, any anthropogenic an·thro·po·gen·ic  
adj.
1. Of or relating to anthropogenesis.

2. Caused by humans: anthropogenic degradation of the environment.
 contribution to ambient [O.sub.3], however slight, still presents an increased risk for premature mortality.

Results from this multisite national study are consistent with single-site time-series studies that found no evidence of a "safe" [O.sub.3] level at concentrations higher than background levels. Consistent with the results obtained under our spline approach, Kim et al. (2004) found that a spline model indicated a threshold around 20-30 ppb for the daily 1-hr maximum, which is approximately equal to 8-12 ppb for the 24-hr average, using 5 years of data for Seoul, Korea. Hoek et al. (1997) found that relative risk estimates of mortality associated with daily changes in [O.sub.3] were robust to exclusion of days with a 24-hr average [greater than or equal to] 40 [micro]g/[m.sup.3] (about 20 ppb) in a study of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, and concluded that should a threshold exist, it may be at a low concentration. Adverse health responses such as decreases in pulmonary function, alterations in the respiratory tract respiratory tract
n.
The air passages from the nose to the pulmonary alveoli, including the pharynx, larynx, trachea, and bronchi.


Respiratory tract 
, and declines in lung function have been observed at [O.sub.3] levels close to background concentrations (Chan and Wu 2005; WHO 2000). [O.sub.3] levels below U.S. EPA regulations have been associated with increased frequency of respiratory symptoms in children with asthma (Gent et al. 2003).

Pollution levels below air quality regulatory standards should not be misinterpreted as safe for human health. For instance, the San Joaquin Valley Noun 1. San Joaquin Valley - a vast valley in central California known for its rich farmland
Calif., California, Golden State, CA - a state in the western United States on the Pacific; the 3rd largest state; known for earthquakes
 Air Pollution Control District refers to the standards as the "highest level of [O.sub.3] that can be present without adverse health effects" (San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District 2006). However, decision makers and the public should distinguish between the complete absence of harm and a lessened or acceptable risk. In fact, the interpretation of an "adequate margin of safety" and what is a "safe" level could depend on the individual, because people may differ in their susceptibility to air pollutants pollutants

see environmental pollution.
, and could depend on the evolving knowledge about the health impacts of air pollution at low levels (American Thoracic Society American Thoracic Society (ATS ), established in 1905, is an independently incorporated, international, educational and scientific society, serving its 18,000 members world-wide who are dedicated in respiratory and critical care medicine.  2000). This research shows that any reduction in ambient [O.sub.3] levels, such as through transportation planning Transportation planning is the field involved with the siting of transportation facilities (generally streets, highways, sidewalks, bike lanes and public transport lines).  in urban areas, should yield important benefits to public health, even in areas that meet current regulatory standards. Persons may be adversely affected by [O.sub.3] pollution, even at very low levels including days that meet current regulatory requirements.
Appendix. List of 98 U.S. urban communities.

Akron, Ohio
Albuquerque, New Mexico
Arlington, Virginia
Atlanta, Georgia
Austin, Texas
Bakersfield, California
Baltimore, Maryland
Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Biddeford, Maine
Birmingham, Alabama
Boston, Massachusetts
Buffalo, New York
Cedar Rapids, Iowa
Charlotte, North Carolina
Chicago, Illinois
Cincinnati, Ohio
Cleveland, Ohio
Colorado Springs, Colorado
Columbus, Georgia
Columbus, Ohio
Corpus Christi, Texas
Coventry, Rhode Island
Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas
Dayton, Ohio
Denver, Colorado
Des Moines, Iowa
Detroit, Michigan
District of Columbia
El Paso, Texas
Evansville, Indiana
Fort Wayne, Indiana
Fresno, California
Grand Rapids, Michigan
Greensboro, North Carolina
Honolulu, Hawaii
Houston, Texas
Huntsville, Alabama
Indianapolis, Indiana
Jackson, Mississippi
Jacksonville, Florida
Jersey City, New Jersey
Johnstown, Pennsylvania
Kansas City, Kansas
Kansas City, Missouri
Kingston, New York
Knoxville, Tennessee
Lafayette, Louisiana
Lake Charles, Louisiana
Las Vegas, Nevada
Lexington, Kentucky
Lincoln, Nebraska
Little Rock, Arkansas
Louisville, Kentucky
Los Angeles, California
Madison, Wisconsin
Memphis, Tennessee
Miami, Florida
Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Mobile, Alabama
Modesto, California
Muskegon, Michigan
Nashville, Tennessee
New Orleans, Louisiana
New York, New York
Newark, New Jersey
Oakland, California
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma
Omaha, Nebraska
Orlando, Florida
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
Phoenix, Arizona
Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Portland, Oregon
Providence, Rhode Island
Raleigh, North Carolina
Riverside, California
Rochester, New York
Sacramento, California
Salt Lake City, Utah
San Antonio, Texas
San Bernardino, California
San Diego, California
San Jose, California
Santa Ana/Anaheim, California
Seattle, Washington
Shreveport, Louisiana
Spokane, Washington
St. Louis, Missouri
St. Petersburg, Florida
Stockton, California
Syracuse, New York
Tacoma, Washington
Tampa, Florida
Toledo, Ohio
Tucson, Arizona
Tulsa, Oklahoma
Wichita, Kansas
Worcester, Massachusetts

Descriptive statistics for each community are given in iHAPSS (2006).


Received 4 November 2005; accepted 23 January 2006.

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Michelle L. Bell, (1) Roger D. Peng, (2) and Francesca Dominici (2)

(1) School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University Yale University, at New Haven, Conn.; coeducational. Chartered as a collegiate school for men in 1701 largely as a result of the efforts of James Pierpont, it opened at Killingworth (now Clinton) in 1702, moved (1707) to Saybrook (now Old Saybrook), and in 1716 was , New Haven New Haven, city (1990 pop. 130,474), New Haven co., S Conn., a port of entry where the Quinnipiac and other small rivers enter Long Island Sound; inc. 1784. Firearms and ammunition, clocks and watches, tools, rubber and paper products, and textiles are among the many , Connecticut, USA; (2) Department of Biostatistics biostatistics /bio·sta·tis·tics/ (-stah-tis´tiks) biometry.

bi·o·sta·tis·tics
n.
The science of statistics applied to the analysis of biological or medical data.
, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland "Baltimore" redirects here. For the surrounding county, see Baltimore County, Maryland. For other uses, see Baltimore (disambiguation).
Baltimore is an independent city located in the state of Maryland in the United States.
, USA

Address correspondence to M.L. Bell, School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, 205 Prospect St., New Haven, CT 06511 USA. Telephone: (203) 432-9869. Fax: (203) 432-3817. E-mail: michelle.bell@yale.edu

We thank J. Samet, S. Zeger, R. White, R. Brookmeyer, and D. Moffitt.

Funding was provided by U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EP05C000125, EPA-3D-6867-NAEX), Johns Hopkins Noun 1. Johns Hopkins - United States financier and philanthropist who left money to found the university and hospital that bear his name in Baltimore (1795-1873)
Hopkins

2.
 Centers for Disease Control Center of Excellence for Environmental Public Health Tracking (U50/CCU322417), National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences The National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) is one of 27 Institutes and Centers of the National Institutes of Health (NIH),which is a component of the Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS). The Director of the NIEHS is Dr. David A. Schwartz.  (ES012054-01, P30 ES 03819), and the Health Effects Institute (4720-RFA04-2/04-16).

Views expressed are those of the authors.

The authors declare they have no competing financial interests.
Table 1. National effect estimates (95% posterior interval) under the
scenario that a specific regulation or guideline is met every day in
each community.

                                                        Increase in
                                                       mortality for
                                                      10-pbb increase
Organization/                                         in lag [bar.01]
government              Regulation/guideline           [O.sub.3] (%)

U.S. EPA          84 ppb daily 8-hr maximum           0.30 (0.15-0.45)
WHO (guideline)   120 [micro]g/[m.sup.3] (~61 ppb)    0.25 (0.06-0.43)
                    daily 8-hr maximum
European          120 [micro]g/[m.sup.3] (~61 ppb)    0.25 (0.06-0.43)
  Commission        daily 8-hr maximum
  (target value
  for 2010)
Canada (to be     65 ppb daily 8-hr maximum           0.28 (0.11-0.45)
  achieved by
  2010)
California        70 ppb daily 8-hr maximum           0.30 (0.14-0.46)
                  90 ppb daily 1-hr maximum           0.29 (0.14-0.44)
                  Both of California's above          0.31 (0.14-0.47)
                    standards
All standards     All of the above standards and      0.24 (0.06-0.42)
                    guidelines
All days of       NA                                  0.32 (0.17-0.46)
  data (a)

NA, not applicable.

(a) Considered regardless of whether they meet a standard or
guideline.
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Author:Dominici, Francesca
Publication:Environmental Health Perspectives
Date:Apr 1, 2006
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