The electoral battle begins: with sights set on the presidential elections, internal disputes within the political parties grow.

Various events this past month marked the beginning of the most important political-electoral event in Mexico: the presidential elections on the first Sunday of the month of July, 2006.

First, there have been adjustments in the presidential cabinet. During the past weeks, Fernando Elizondo stepped down from his position as secretary of Energy and Javier Usabiaga renounced his post as secretary of Agriculture. Both departures bore the mark of failure. The first, for not obtaining a long-awaited energy and electricity reform; and the second, for the conflict of the workers in the sugar industry.

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What's more, on October 3, Santiago Levy was separated from his position as general director of the Mexican Institute of Social Security (IMSS). It's said that the renunciation is due to Levy's aversion to underwrite an accord with the syndicate of the institute, which sought to ignore recent social security reforms as they pertained to retirement and pensions. The perception of a good part of the public opinion is that the federal government decided, just as in the case of the failed airport in Atenco, to cede before the pressure groups, leaving much-needed reforms for later.

This series of elements generate the perception that in the home stretch of President Vicente Fox's government, he is already leaving the field. This is what impedes Fox's government from beginning the end of its time in office on good terms and with political, economic and social certitude. From there, the expectation that Carlos Maria Abascal Carranza, secretary of the Interior, would obtain accords in the factions of congress to push forward pending structural reforms. Without doubt, the position of secretary of the Interior carries a heavy weight.

Second, the fight for the candidacy of the President of the Republic has begun. The internal battles of the political parties grow, the agreements don't turn out well and the intrigues multiply.

In the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), the internal accords are neither solid nor credible enough to manage the election of the presidential candidate. The clash between Elba Esther Gordillo, the leader of the teacher's syndicate, and Roberto Madrazo, the previous national leader of the party and current hopeful presidential candidate, is weakening the new selection process. The teacher's attacks don't stop throughout the tabasqueno's proselytizing tours in the states. Meanwhile, Arturo Montiel, ex-governor of Mexico's largest entity--the State of Mexico--suffered an outbreak of family financial scandals that ruined his political aspirations. The possibility of yet another candidate, who would end the internal polarization and unify the party with triumphant possibilities, would have been an attractive prospect, but is impossible.

Meanwhile, Felipe Calderon won a clean and democratic nomination from the National Action Party (PAN). Though not free of complaints--a brief scandal over possible voter fraud darkened the party's skies in early October--the election process moved gracefully through its problems. At the end, the party solidified to nominate Calderon fair and square, who will accept his candidacy on November 20.

While other parties' hopefuls were forced to focus their campaigns within the party, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the indisputable candidate of the Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD), has for all intents and purposes already begun his national campaign. His unrivalled support within his party allowed him to spend the past months establishing nets of support inside and outside of the PRD.

All three parties find themselves in different situations, but this month will serve to level the playing field. November will be a telling month.

Joel Estudillo Rendon is a member of the board of the Instituto Mexicano de Estudios Politicos.