The earth in balance.

The historical pendulum swings between serious alarm and indifference on the state of the world's natural environment, and between hope and despair in the condition of the inhabitants on our planet. The lessons which our review may teach us is that we should be optimistic but not sanguine, concerned but not in despair, pleased at what we have achieved since Rio, but conscious that much more remains to be done.

The goals of the 1997 review are to:

* identify and recognize the positive achievements in implementing the Earth Summit agreements;

* pinpoint shortcomings and failures, and suggest corrective actions;

* promote the global partnerships needed to achieve sustainable development; and

* identify priorities and outline a work plan for the next phase of implementation of the Earth Summit agreements.

The preparatory process for the special session is almost as complex as the preparation for Rio. It involves among other things:

* Success stories from people around the world, how they have responded to the challenge of the Earth Summit and how they helped to set their communities on more sustainable paths.

* Assessment of freshwater resources, which indicates that by the year 2025 as much as two thirds of the world population would be under stress conditions (see report on p. 24).

* A trends report identifying the major environment and development trends of the last 25 years and the implications of these trends for the future.

* A comprehensive report drawing conclusions from the implementation of the main elements of the Earth Summit agreements for future action.

* Country profiles outlining what countries have done to translate the Earth Summit agreements from words to action.

In the long term, an evaluation of the effectiveness of the post-Rio process will have to be measured in terms of its impact on the welfare of current and future generations - in answers to some simple questions:

* Are we closer to meeting human needs?

* Is the quality of life improving for the world's population?

* Are we reducing risks to health and our capacity to meet needs?

* Are we broadening or narrowing options for the future?

A fundamental problem is that we do not yet have the tools to measure these impacts with sufficient reliability or consistency. The whole exercise of developing and agreeing to sustainable development indicators is meant to address this. This work is far from complete. Moreover, the transition to sustainability will take time - many decades, perhaps centuries, of adverse impact have to be corrected. Five years down the road, what we can look for are directional changes.

In some areas, the United Nations can claim credit. The work of the Commission on Sustainable Development (CSD) - the intergovernmental body charged with the responsibility for the Earth Summit follow-up - has been commendable. Key accomplishments of the CSD processes include the Global Water Assessment, the establishment of the Intergovernmental Panel of Forests, the work on sustainable development indicators, and on consumption and production patterns. Progress has also been made through the presentation and discussions of national experiences and the use of expert panels to inject informed advice into the work of the Commission.

There is an urgent need to make sustainable development an integral part of policy-making at different levels, especially in the economic sectors and ministries at the national level. After all, the pursuit of sustainable development impacts on fundamental economic transactions within a society, in the production and consumption of basic goods and services, as well as in the pursuit of certain lifestyles.

Global Change and Sustainable Development: Critical Trends

This report reviews trends relating to economic development, social well-being and environmental sustainability over the last 25 years and anticipates events to come over the next 25 years with the help of model-based projections and scenarios.

The focus is on the role of policy. To what extent have trends in economic growth, consumption patterns and environmental degradation been influenced by policy intervention? Which policies have proved beneficial and which detrimental? What are the most urgent priorities in different regions of the world, and the most promising policy approaches?

On the positive side, the report notes that world population growth is slowing, food production is still rising, most people are living longer and healthier lives, and environmental quality in some regions is improving. On the other hand, it points to such problems as the growing scarcity of fresh water, loss of forests and of productive agricultural land, rising carbon dioxide emissions responsible for global warming from industrialized countries, persistent and growing poverty, increased wealth disparities, and the doubling of the chronically undernourished in sub-Saharan Africa since 1969.

"Rapid and continuous degradation of the natural resource base, on which economic activity and life itself depend, may constitute the most serious of all threats to human well-being in the future", the report warns. In this context, a "business-as-usual" approach to development is no longer appropriate.

The way ahead, the report suggests, is through the adoption of such promising policy approaches as increased investment in people, encouragement of clean and efficient technologies and pricing reform to internalize social and environmental costs of key economic activities.